CryptoChan

Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).

At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.

【Indicator Update】

1067 days from the cycle low in 2015 to the bull market high ($19666)

1060 days from the cycle low in 2018 to the bull market high ($69000)

It has been 884 days since the cycle low in 2022

A hard decoupling rally without the need for stimulus from message boards or the influence of the US stock market is what a true BTC bull market should look like 😎

【Indicator Update】The big reversal is proceeding as scheduled😎

In 2016, this indicator had a golden cross, and 671 days later reached the peak in 2017.
In 2019, this indicator had a golden cross, and 648 days later reached the peak in the first half of 2021.
In 2023, this indicator had a golden cross, and 515 days have passed since then.

The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are BTC: Realized Profit (365dma) and BTC: Realized Loss (365dma).

BTC's Realized Profit and Realized Loss are commonly used indicators in on-chain analysis, used to measure the actual profits or losses of Bitcoin holders during transactions, reflecting the behavior of market participants and market sentiment.

Realized Profit refers to the actual profit that Bitcoin holders receive when selling Bitcoin. Specifically, when a Bitcoin is sold at a price higher than its last movement (or acquisition) price, the difference between the selling price and the cost price is the realized profit.

Realized Loss refers to the actual loss that Bitcoin holders incur when selling Bitcoin. When a Bitcoin is sold at a price lower than its last movement price, the difference between the cost price and the selling price is the realized loss.

The current Bitcoin SSR indicator has touched the lower band 🧘

BTC: The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is an on-chain metric used to analyze the Bitcoin market. It is derived by dividing the total supply of Bitcoin by the total supply of major stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC, etc.). The SSR reflects the relative purchasing power of stablecoins compared to Bitcoin.

When the SSR approaches its upper Bollinger Band, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is high, meaning there is relatively little supply of stablecoins. This may suggest that the market is in a 'top' or overheated speculative phase, where investors might have 'fully invested', leading to insufficient remaining purchasing power.

When the SSR approaches its historical lows or lower band, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is low, meaning there is relatively more supply of stablecoins. This is generally associated with potential upward movement in Bitcoin's price, as ample stablecoin liquidity provides strong purchasing power support for the market.

Don't panic

$38K coin price lightly touches Line 3
$49K coin price lightly touches Line 3
$74K coin price still lightly touches Line 3

With my ultimate support in the bull market, small tariffs are nothing to worry about 😎

Don't panic, gently touch Line 3😎

【Line Chart Update】So Hard! Our BTC has its own cycle here😎

Current——
Line 5: $190,769
Line 4: $120,638
Line 3: $76,806
Line 2: $50,507
Line 1: $32,974

不要慌，8.1w 又是一把回踩“牛熊大分界线”🧗

Don't panic, it's almost time to break through, my chest brother 🧘

M2SL is the M2 money supply data released by the Federal Reserve, measured in billions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).

M2SL/DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index.

When M2SL/DXY rises, investors may expect risk asset prices to increase, as liquidity increases and a weaker dollar reduces the cost of holding non-dollar assets.

When M2SL/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which could benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but puts pressure on assets like gold and #BTC.

Don't panic, $76k is another solid pullback to the 40% profit line, just like $38k, $49k, and $52k in 2024😏

The MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value) is a commonly used on-chain analysis metric in the cryptocurrency market, used to assess Bitcoin's valuation level and help investors determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued.

MVRV = MV / RV: This ratio is derived by dividing the 'total market value of on-chain chips' by the 'total purchase value of on-chain chips.'

MVRV > 1: The market value is higher than the purchase value, indicating that the current price of Bitcoin is above the average cost for holders, which usually means the market is in a profit state and may be at risk of overvaluation. If the value is too high (such as 3.5 or above historically), it may signal a market top.
MVRV < 1: The market value is lower than the purchase value, indicating that the price of Bitcoin is below the average cost for holders, and holders are generally at a loss, usually suggesting that the market is undervalued and may be nearing a bottom.

In a bull market, MVRV typically rises and reaches a peak, reflecting heightened speculative sentiment. In a bear market, MVRV declines and may even fall below 1, showing market cooling and panic selling.

The MVRV in the chart is a personal modified version, where BTC that has not moved for more than 7 years is considered long-term dormant or lost and excluded from the calculation.

Don't panic, the SSR indicator is getting closer to the lower bound 🧘

BTC: The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is an on-chain metric used to analyze the Bitcoin market. It is derived by dividing the total supply of Bitcoin by the total supply of major stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC, etc.). The SSR reflects the relative purchasing power of stablecoins compared to Bitcoin.

When the SSR approaches its upper Bollinger Band, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is high, meaning that the supply of stablecoins is relatively low. This may suggest that the market is at a "top" or in a speculative overheating phase, where investors may have already gone "all-in," leading to insufficient remaining purchasing power.

When the SSR approaches its historical low or lower bound, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is low, meaning that the supply of stablecoins is relatively high. This is usually associated with the potential for an increase in Bitcoin's price, as ample stablecoin liquidity provides strong purchasing power support for the market.

【Bull Market Series】Don't panic, 76,000 is just another pullback to the "Bull-Bear Demarcation Line" 😏

BTC: Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is an on-chain analysis metric used to measure the relative proportion of profits and losses realized by Bitcoin holders through selling Bitcoin over a certain period.

Definition and Calculation
Realized Profit: When Bitcoin is sold, if the selling price is higher than the price at the last movement (i.e., the price at which the holder bought or acquired it), the difference is the realized profit. Realized Loss: Conversely, if the selling price is lower than the last movement price, the difference is the realized loss. Realized Profit/Loss Ratio = Total Realized Profit / Total Realized Loss.

This ratio is usually expressed in numerical form: If the ratio > 1, it indicates that realized profits on the market exceed losses, reflecting that holders are generally taking profits. If the ratio < 1, it indicates that losses exceed profits, suggesting that holders may be panic selling or cutting losses. If the ratio = 1, profits and losses are roughly balanced, i.e., the "Bull-Bear Demarcation Line"

During a bull market cycle, the "Bull-Bear Demarcation Line" often serves as strong support.

【Indicator Update】Last __ , in full swing😏

Don't panic, the current BTC: VDD indicator has entered the bottom range 😼

"Value Days Destroyed Multiple" (VDD Multiple) is an on-chain metric used to analyze Bitcoin market behavior, primarily to assess the spending velocity and market conditions of Bitcoin. It is based on the foundational concept of "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) and is derived from further processing and calculations.

Definition and Calculation
1. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):
CDD measures the number of coin days that are "destroyed" when Bitcoin moves on-chain. Coin days are the accumulated time a Bitcoin is held without being moved; for example, if 1 BTC is held for 100 days without movement, it accumulates 100 coin days. If this 1 BTC is transferred or spent, those coin days are "destroyed" and counted towards CDD.
Calculation formula: CDD = Number of Bitcoins moved × Number of days since the last movement.

2. Value Days Destroyed (VDD):
VDD introduces the price factor of Bitcoin into CDD by multiplying CDD by the BTC price at that time (in USD), thus reflecting the "economic value" of the destroyed days. This allows the metric to better compare spending behavior across different price cycles.
Calculation formula: VDD = CDD × BTC price

3. Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDD Multiple):
VDD Multiple is calculated by dividing the short-term (typically 30 days) average of VDD by the long-term (typically 365 days) average of VDD, yielding a ratio. This ratio reflects the comparison of recent spending velocity to the annual average spending velocity.
Calculation formula: VDD Multiple = 30-day VDD average ÷ 365-day VDD average

VDD is mainly used to identify cyclical highs and lows in the Bitcoin market.

【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】
In the mid-cycle of the 2016 bull market, this indicator peaked, 354 days away from the bull market top at the end of 2017.
In the mid-cycle of the 2020 bull market, this indicator peaked, 352 days away from the bull market top in the first half of 2021.
In the mid-cycle of the 2024 bull market, this indicator has peaked, and 152 days have passed since then.

It is worth mentioning that historically, during this period, the price of the coin has experienced three significant pullbacks (marked in blue circles in the image).

A significant milestone in the history of cryptocurrency! This will change everything 🫡🫡🫡

15-17 Year Bull Market Cycle, Short-Term Holders Have Been Above Water for About 30 Months
19-21 Year Bull Market Cycle, Short-Term Holders Have Been Above Water for About 33 Months
Current Bull Market Cycle, Short-Term Holders Have Been Above Water for About 26 Months

STH-MVRV (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value) is an important on-chain indicator in the cryptocurrency market, mainly used to analyze the profit or loss status of BTC short-term holders, as well as market sentiment and potential buying and selling pressure. When this indicator is >1, on-chain short-term holders are generally in a state of profit.

Said BTC 78k but it's just another "superficial exploration"

Don't fall before the true dawn of the bull market, guys 😏