Hot topics of Master Chat:
Thinking back to the past few years, my own in-depth research on Bitcoin has been like a wonderful adventure. I have gradually discovered that Bitcoin is more like a mysterious field interwoven with mathematics and statistics, and the laws within it are as fascinating and confusing as the stars in the universe.
The causes of many laws are like a fog, and I was skeptical at first, thinking that they were just coincidences. But my personal experience in the past few years has allowed me to witness that many laws are running like a precise clock.
Bitcoin has a 224-day cycle and halving events in 2017, 2021, and 2024. The price trend around these time nodes has obvious fluctuations, which is also a phenomenon mentioned in the video analysis last year. (You can also open your own K-line and compare the daily level of these three years to see it at a glance)
After careful verification, the master found that each time the interval was 224 days to reach the peak, and the next 224 days corresponded to November 30. This made the master wonder, could there be another magical scene at that time: Ethereum, like a brave general, led the army of altcoins to start, causing Bitcoin's market value share to drop rapidly?
Judging from the current market situation, this possibility is indeed not small. First of all, we have entered the last 10 months of this bull market cycle, which is like the climax of a grand performance, and the excitement is about to be presented one by one.
In this process, Bitcoin and Ethereum are like the two main characters on the stage, showing their relative strength alternately. Each role rotation lasts about 4-7 weeks, during which even the decline and retracement are part of their performance. From now on, Ethereum has a great tendency to catch up, and it is very likely that its growth rate will exceed that of Bitcoin.
And in this last bull market carnival, Bitcoin will not be smooth sailing, it will experience multiple 20% - 30% retracements. Just like the cooling-off period after the high emotions, the crazier it rises, the more frightening the retracement will be. Just like the current crazy rise, perhaps there will be a terrifying retracement soon.
In addition, almost all altcoins (as long as they are not the little-known and unpopular coins) will have their own highlight moments.
The recent performance of Bitcoin is crazy, and the continuous surge has triggered a strong FOMO sentiment in the market. In the past few days, futures have become the dominant force in the market, with funding rates rising all the way and premiums also rising sharply.
The logic behind this is that, on the one hand, it is the positive impact of the expected rate cut, and on the other hand, it is the stimulus of the news that Trump will take office. At the beginning of this week, the news that MicroStrategy bought more than $2 billion added fuel to the fire, and the price of Bitcoin once soared to 90,000. This point is close to 161.8%, and it seems easy to break the historical high.
However, I would like to remind you all here that you must not be carried away by this craze. Blindly chasing the rise is very risky. If there is a pullback, you can buy in batches and make short-term or medium-term investments.
Fans can refer to Master’s article analyzing the range of the peak and correction in March. At present, 80K and 74K are important support levels. In the cryptocurrency circle, we must not only see opportunities, but also stay sober at all times, so that we can win in the ever-changing situation.
Master looks at the trend:
After the 90K test, Bitcoin formed a double top pattern and entered the adjustment range again. At present, it is fluctuating within the box range after the rise. Since the upward trend is still maintained, the rebound expectation can be maintained.
The Trump market, which is currently stronger than expected, is bringing continuous capital inflows to the market. As long as it does not deviate from the bottom of the box range, the rebound expectation can continue to be maintained.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 88600
Second resistance level: 90000
Support level reference:
First support level: 87000
Second support level: 86400
Today's suggestion:
At present, Bitcoin must break a new high within the day before we can expect further gains. At this stage where the 90,000 level has failed to be tested twice, if the rebound fails to set a new high, we need to pay attention to the sell-off caused by disappointment with the retest.
If the second support is broken, the probability of price adjustment to EMA60 will increase. Since it is still within the box range, you can try to find opportunities to go long in the callback range.
11.13 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: Based on the 4-hour EMA25, refer to the 83400-84000 range. Target: 86400
Reference for short entry: 87000-87500 light position short target: 86400-86000
