Source: Huali Huawai
This week, the U.S. presidential election (November 5) and the FOMC meeting (November 8, with the market expecting a 25 basis point rate cut) will be significant economic events driving market sentiment. Furthermore, in the previous article (October 31), we have already mentioned that the market may experience new significant fluctuations in the next two weeks, so be cautious of leverage.
Currently, there isn't much to say about the market. In this issue, let's make a small summary of the stage and briefly discuss the issues of opportunities and chances.
So-called opportunities are those you need to actively seek; opportunities can be artificially created. In contrast, opportunities are objective, accepted, and not artificially created. Opportunities often represent the formation of favorable conditions and environments.
I remember in the year 2023, we shared many projects through Huali Huawai. Looking back, that year was indeed filled with opportunities, and at that time, we also began to feel excited about the potential bull market opportunities in 2024. For those who have continuously followed and read the historical articles of Huali Huawai, they should have a personal sense of this overall trend change. At the same time, during the most pessimistic period of the current bear market in 2023, our regular investment plan for BTC was also consistently maintained without interruption, concluding the 20-month investment plan in January 2024.
Now that we have officially entered November, there are less than 60 days until 2025. Over the past year, some people around me have made considerable profits, while others have lost a lot of money. Nevertheless, this year has been very important for wealth accumulation in the crypto field.
Over the past two years, I have dedicated most of my personal free energy to the Huali Huawai self-media, while investing very little energy in trading, mainly investing in 80% of my position in Bitcoin. Throughout this process, I have strictly adhered to my customized investment plan and have basically achieved my expected profit target. However, I have indeed missed some new opportunities due to my 'conservativeness.' For example:
1. Missed Airdrop Opportunities
Although in the past I received some airdrops, the main ones I received in larger amounts were ARB and ARKM. However, I did not pay much attention to this. After receiving them, I directly sold most of them. For example, in the ARKM project, several of my wallets received thousands of tokens, and I sold them for about $0.6 at the time, but later this token rose to nearly $4.
Although it seems like a lesson for me now, I don’t feel much regret. This is mainly related to personal energy; I was optimistic about the development of the Arbitrum ecosystem, which is why I managed to obtain ARB. Anyone who follows the historical articles of Huali Huawai will find that in 2023, I discussed many topics related to Arbitrum. As for ARKM, I started using it when the project was in beta testing; it's a very useful wallet query and tracking tool, and I had mentioned this tool several times in my earlier series of articles on on-chain tools.
It is precisely because my personal focus over the past two years was not on airdrops that I also missed some airdrop opportunities. Although I interacted with many new projects last year, most of them were simply for basic experience, primarily to write articles after experiencing them once or twice.
To do well with airdrops and achieve good results, more time and energy are needed, and I do not have that energy, so I can completely face and accept this miss.
2. Missed MemeCoin Opportunities
As we entered 2023, I had organized quite a few narratives and ultimately identified AI, RWA, and GameFi as the top three narratives to focus on for 2023–2024. However, looking back, both AI and RWA seem to perform well overall, but the decline of GameFi completely exceeded my initial expectations.
In fact, what I never expected at the time was the MemeCoin narrative. Although I had noticed and witnessed the birth and development of tokens like PEPE and ORDI relatively early, I never anticipated that with the booming concepts of the Bitcoin ecosystem and Solana ecosystem, this bull market would directly become the stage for MemeCoin performances.
This also forced me to invest more space in my later articles on the subject of MemeCoin. To this end, I have organized and shared many on-chain tools related to MemeCoin, inscriptions, and runes (BTC ecosystem) as well. I write articles with an appropriate consideration of current hot topics, and I do not completely ignore the market or people’s focus while working in isolation.
In the case of MemeCoin, my effort was more focused on summarizing successful ideas (like Smart Money) in my articles, rather than frequently engaging in trading operations myself. Therefore, although this cycle has produced many so-called hundredfold and thousandfold stories, none of those stories include me.
Moreover, according to my personal risk preference and investment strategy, I cannot invest too much in MemeCoin; I can only say that I have gained a little. For instance, sometimes during the process of writing articles, I occasionally participate in some trading tests with a few tens or hundreds of dollars for the experience of on-chain tools or processes. Some eventually went to zero, while others had passive gains. However, overall, the MemeCoin narrative in this cycle did not bring me much of the so-called wealth accumulation effect.
I can only say that the MemeCoin matter, like the airdrop mentioned above, I might just be focusing on witnessing and participating.
3. Safety is always the top priority.
Although I usually place risk management and risk warnings at the forefront of my articles, giving the impression that my safety awareness is very strong. However, from last year until now, among the more than ten test wallets I frequently use (each with relatively modest assets, ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars), two wallets had their assets stolen. The reason is simple: my carelessness. One wallet was exploited because I mistakenly authorized a phishing link in X, and another wallet was phished while checking emails in Gmail (my email address is publicly available in the public account and Notion). I can only say that as someone who often plays with eagles, I did not expect to be pecked in the eye.
Besides myself, partners around me have experienced similar situations, and even a few in the group have been scammed by others. For instance, one partner was added as a friend by a stranger who enthusiastically led her to trade every day. Initially, she made some small profits, but ultimately was guided to a scam exchange and lost nearly a million.
As the saying goes, while making money is important, the security of the wallet is of utmost importance.
4. Continue to maintain patience
Regardless, 2023 has passed, 2024 is coming to an end, and 2025 is full of expectations.
In each cycle, we go through four different market phases: Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, and Downtrend. As shown in the figure below.
In other words, every financial market has cyclical rules, and the crypto market is no exception. The main logic behind the market's ups and downs is driven by liquidity and investor sentiment (also including regulatory changes). With the U.S. elections approaching, the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates, and the large-scale adoption of ETFs, we should currently be in a new uptrend.
However, sometimes, the process can be quite tortuous; whether making money or losing money, these matters are normal. The focus is whether we can analyze our past behaviors and combine them with the future trends of the market to position or optimize our strategies.
As for our work focus in 2025, it will mainly concentrate on two aspects:
The first is to continue to persist in developing Huali Huawai's self-media, but I will appropriately reduce the frequency of updates. However, I will still try to ensure there are new thoughts and outputs every week.
In terms of content, due to some well-known reasons, the 9 self-media accounts that we previously opened on the intranet have only 3 remaining as of now. Starting next year, we will no longer consider opening any new platforms on the intranet. On the external network, we will focus on utilizing the 3 platforms: Notion, Medium, and Substack for synchronized content publishing. Additionally, next year we will continue to primarily output text and image-based content and will not consider launching video-type columns for the time being.
Regarding the mutual aid group, we will still focus on retaining the only existing mutual aid group, which is also the most direct communication bridge and link between Huali Huawai and everyone. Once the current group reaches 500 members, we will no longer consider opening new mutual aid groups.
As for eBooks, the plan to release 1-2 new eBook collections each year will remain unchanged.
The second is to execute the exit plan.
According to the established goals for 2022, we should soon approach the first profit-taking range. By the end of this year or early next year, we will consider executing the exit strategy, selling portions of our Bitcoin holdings in batches, while also preparing for new planning for the next bear market cycle. As for the several altcoins in this cycle, we will consider fully liquidating and converting them into Bitcoin at an appropriate time next year.
Of course, we will also have Plan B. If the price of Bitcoin in this bull market cycle ultimately fails to reach our expected profit-taking range, we will continue to hold our coins and patiently wait for the next bull market.
In closing:
Most people are constantly striving, hoping to pursue happiness and joy through hard work. But perhaps, only by truly understanding one's inner needs can a person become truly transparent.
Many people believe that only with enough money can one find happiness and joy. However, in reality, it is often those who can truly be themselves and persist in doing what they love who will possess true happiness and joy, while money is merely a byproduct of this process.
Many things do not happen overnight. Learn to be a friend of time, and continue to invest in the field you focus on; keep searching for like-minded people or circles, maintain positive energy, and continue thinking while also maintaining a certain level of patience.
