Source: Outspoken
I saw a rather interesting comparative perspective the other day. Someone said: In this cycle, BTC is the new gold, SOL is the new ETH, and ETH has become a new ATOM. This perspective probably represents the views of many people. With BTC continuing to create historical highs this month, SOL has maintained its heat under the MemeCoin craze, while ETH's performance seems to leave many people dissatisfied.
Recently, many messages in the backend have been asking about the prices of altcoins, and some friends have repeatedly messaged me asking: How high can ETH's price rise before the end of the year? What altcoins can I buy now to earn 10 times before the end of the year?
I generally do not respond to questions like the one above. To say something that might not sound pleasant, if I could accurately know which altcoin to buy to easily earn 10 times before the end of the year, wouldn't it be better for me to invest it all myself? Why would I tell you? On the path of investment, if you base your dreams of making money (or getting rich) solely on hoping to rely on others (who are still strangers to you), you are already on the path to losing money. In my understanding, it is impossible to achieve long-term investment success by habitually reaching out to others for simple conclusions.
Moreover, I have a small habit of checking how many likes/reads/appreciations a user has given to historical articles when replying to messages in the backend. If these counts show zero, I generally will not respond unless the other person asks a more targeted question. Everyone's time and energy are limited, and effort should be mutual. Furthermore, many of my viewpoints and opinions have been reflected in historical articles. You can easily search or revisit historical articles to find the content you need.
As I mentioned in a previous article: each of us should learn to use the correct way of asking questions. Do not just reach out and ask questions that you could easily find answers to with just five seconds of thought, while requiring the other party to spend ten minutes or more to answer (such as: what do you think about... or how do you see... these kinds of questions). The reasoning here is simple: whether others are willing to lend a hand to help you depends entirely on your attitude and whether you think from their perspective.
As for those who come and leave complaints or curse words in the backend, I won't pay attention to them either. Many times, we need to reflect on ourselves rather than randomly target others or complain that the market or society does not give us opportunities...
Perhaps some bloggers value private traffic (such as adding as many people as possible to WeChat) or personal fame (becoming KOL). You might think of yourself as these bloggers' customers or gods, but this is not important to me. Moreover, there are now many crypto bloggers online, and everyone's focus and choices are vast. If you like reading articles, follow them; if you don't, then don't follow. It's really that simple.
Of course, some people's mentality is relatively anxious now, which I can understand. After all, during the bull market, watching others make money or become rich overnight while holding onto unprofitable (or even losing) altcoins can indeed feel frustrating for them. This frustration can lead to two direct results:
One is to complain and curse every day
One is to review and self-reflect
Often, making mistakes is not scary; the scariest thing is making mistakes without realizing it. In this field, I have also made many mistakes myself. There were a few times when I lost a lot of money, but fortunately, I later conducted serious reviews and reflections. Even now, I still insist on recording over 10,000 words of notes weekly for learning and thinking.
I remember some friends in the group said I am a person with determination, but perhaps only I know that this determination is largely built on my continuous learning and thinking. Just as I mentioned in a previous article: the logic of many things is not complex, but it requires overcoming fear and laziness. If you do not have a foundational knowledge base, when facing market fluctuations, your brain will have no determination to hold on, which is essentially the same principle as practicing basic skills in martial arts or muscle training.
After saying so much, it's just because the recent backend messages have started to increase again, which has made me feel a little touched. But perhaps when someone reads this, they will complain that I am talking nonsense. Yes, this is the benefit and drawback of self-media. The benefit is that I have the freedom to say what I want (of course, I won't discuss sensitive topics), and the drawback is that you might waste time reading my words. If after reading more than 500 past articles, you still find them useless, I suggest you unfollow me immediately. This may be a good thing for you.
Next, let's continue discussing the topic of altcoins.
Currently, altcoins overall have not shown any significant improvement. The main reason may be attributed to the following aspects:
- BTC continues to dominate
Currently, BTC.D has reached around 61.5%, creating a new high in three years, as shown in the chart below.
As long as BTC's price continues to break historical highs, most of the liquidity in the market will be concentrated on Bitcoin, and naturally, altcoins will not experience significant improvement.
- MemeCoin continues to absorb liquidity
Although MemeCoin has experienced some pullback recently, this does not affect its ongoing absorption of the remaining liquidity in the market. Many people have completely abandoned so-called fundamental analysis and no longer pay attention to those so-called valuable altcoins, instead fully FOMOing into MemeCoin, which will also lead to generally poor performance of altcoins.
- ETH has fallen into a state of isolation
Bitcoin is continuously creating historical highs, but ETH seems to remain motionless, completely indifferent to the market's voice. Many friends who previously swapped from BTC to ETH are now regretting their choices. As the king of altcoins, as long as it remains still (without larger fluctuations), most altcoins seem to be stuck in waiting.
When Bitcoin rises, altcoins dare not move; when Bitcoin falls, altcoins have to follow. If the king of altcoins doesn't move, it makes it difficult for those little brothers of altcoins.
Solana, along with a bunch of meme little brothers, watches the excitement and says: Look at that person, how strange, like a dog.
Ethereum is quietly standing still, not looking back.
If we continue to think further through the above three perspectives, it will be easy to understand that if altcoins as a whole want to see a new round of rising opportunities, they need to:
- Wait until BTC's trend stabilizes
Once Bitcoin enters a new consolidation phase, some liquidity in the market may come out to seek new opportunities. At this time, altcoins with relatively good fundamentals, or previously undervalued altcoins, will become new points of speculation for capital.
- Wait until the heat of MemeCoin decreases
As a purely speculative and even gambling nature asset, MemeCoin cannot be continuously hyped. Once the narrative around MemeCoin begins to lose heat (this is often when retail investors are most FOMO), profit-taking may quickly exit, and this capital will re-enter those so-called valuable altcoins for speculation.
- Wait until the king of altcoins wakes up
Although many people are dissatisfied with ETH's performance at the moment, personally, I still have a relatively optimistic view of Ethereum's development. After all, ETH is currently the only altcoin with ETF approval. Once BTC's trend stabilizes and MemeCoin's heat begins to decrease, ETH may finally welcome its own performance. It is expected that a large amount of liquidity will begin to flow back into its ecosystem (DeFi, L2, etc. will benefit simultaneously).
Of course, the above are merely some thoughts I have sorted out. As for how much ETH can rise to, or which altcoins can take off again, no one knows.
Moreover, when it comes to altcoins, many friends might think of VC coins, especially those tokens from projects with low circulation and high FDV. After going through previous trials, many retail investors become wary of VC and wish to keep their distance from these projects. But how should we think about it? Perhaps we can consider it from a different perspective: do those VCs easily admit defeat?
Or perhaps, VCs are just waiting for new opportunities. They always manage to stay ahead of others. Maybe they are brewing new hype or crafting new stories. If the market changes later, we will see some events that can reignite people's FOMO. For example, the recent heat around the DeSci concept has directly driven several related tokens to create historical highs, which is a typical demonstration of hype.
And currently, during this phase where almost everyone has a negative outlook on Ethereum and altcoins, it is often also the best phase for research. If you still believe that there will be a new round of opportunities in altcoins this year or next, then you should invest more effort in some digging work. For example, focus on speculation points that VCs might utilize, such as staking, interoperability, DeFi 3.0, etc. At the same time, pay attention to on-chain data changes, such as TVL growth and user scale increase. If you have more time and energy, you can also pay attention to some VCs or project parties' official Twitter accounts and closely monitor their dynamics; or follow some celebrities/opinion leaders on Twitter. If they start to publish or retweet topics about certain projects, it indicates that those projects may have begun to execute some potential plans.
In short, if we compare the market to a wolf, then retail investors are like sheep that could be eaten by the wolf at any moment. While running, the sheep should focus on staying ahead of other sheep, rather than trying to outrun the wolf.
Note: The above content is just personal viewpoints and analyses, only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. Any projects or websites mentioned in the article have no direct interest relationship with this platform (this platform does not accept any advertisements from project parties). Please evaluate the safety of corresponding projects or websites on your own. Investment always carries risks; we should not enter situations we do not understand, and we should not play in situations we cannot afford to lose.
