话李话外

As of the 2025 fiscal year, we have released 5 e-books, including the Crypto series and Travel series:
1. (Blockchain Thinking Advancement) 2023
This book is the e-book "Talking Li Talking Outside" launched on December 30, 2023, with approximately 123,000 words, divided into 9 main chapters, covering essential knowledge for newcomers, commonly used blockchain tools, self-cultivation for investors, investment and trading strategies, project research methodologies, blockchain knowledge popularization, and common knowledge of blockchain security.
2. (Blockchain Methodology) 2024
This book is the e-book "Talking Li Talking Outside" launched in 2024, with approximately 623,000 words, mainly divided into three major categories: investment strategy methodologies, self-cultivation for investors, and annual narratives, each of which consists of different sections of articles.

Cover Design: Talking Inside and Outside

In the previous article (March 4th), when discussing the topic of information acquisition, I mentioned that I also pay attention to some other bloggers' public accounts, which can be considered a learning process.

Although different bloggers often have different viewpoints, theoretically, our daily learning can appropriately include some completely different perspectives, as this is also a direct way to test our cognitive framework. If a person consistently chooses to read only those thoughts they completely agree with, they may easily fall into an information cocoon or experience what is known in psychology as confirmation bias.

Source: Talking about Li and talking outside

I feel that the information nowadays is often quite fragmented. For example, when I recently went to pick up my daughter from school, I could hardly hear anyone discussing AI or lobster topics; the conversations were mostly about the situation in Iran and children's homework. However, from the online channels I follow, it seems that almost everyone is raising lobsters (OpenClaw). I heard that a few days ago, there was a free lobster installation event at the Tencent building, and over a thousand people showed up, including a 60-year-old man waiting in line to install lobsters.

Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside

In our previous article (March 2), we briefly discussed the topic of AI and mentioned that AI is more about enhancing your ability or space to acquire information and will not directly enhance your cognitive level.

This statement has sparked discussions among some friends in the group. Some agreed, while others believed that AI can directly enhance cognitive levels. Although opinions differ, I think that's great because a good discussion among peers is also a very good learning atmosphere.

Source: Talking about Li and the outside

A few days ago, I received a rather interesting comment: You mentioned in your article that there is still a 70% position in Bitcoin, so when Bitcoin was at $126,000 last year, why didn't you sell all at once?

If you look back at history from the perspective of the present, many people would feel that they understand things, and would often sigh that it would have been better if they or others had done things differently back then. However, such time travel can only happen in TV dramas. In real life, we should be more realistic, especially when it comes to investing. Investing is not fortune-telling; it doesn't mean that every trade must be sold at the highest point (or bought at the lowest point) all at once. Instead, it should be about strictly executing your trading plan and adhering to your trading discipline.

Source: Talking Outside of Talking

I thought that during the New Year period, everyone's mood should generally be good, but I didn't expect to encounter some cute individuals. In the past few days, I have directly blocked several people on the public account backend. My criteria for blocking people are actually quite simple, mainly two: one is those who frequently leave comments to post advertisements, and the other is those who use foul language to insult others.

For example, someone saw the title of my last article (February 14) and probably didn't read the main text carefully, immediately leaving a comment insulting others, arguing that Bitcoin's bear market can only drop to 50,000 USD at most! Let me put it this way, any rebuttal here is fine with me, and I welcome anyone to leave different opinions in the public account, but as long as you insult others, you will be directly blocked.

Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
The recent market conditions may also be poor, and with the increasing FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), many people's emotions seem to have worsened. Take the representative Crypto Fear & Greed Index as an example; the index value has now reached 8 (Extreme Fear), as shown in the figure below.



In any circle, emotions will exist, whether in a large market or a small community. Emotions are a double-edged sword; if utilized well, they can help one earn money by gaining insights ahead of others. However, if a person is constantly swayed by various emotions, it may affect their operational rhythm and positions.

In recent days, the market has been relatively quiet. Today, I found that the discussions among partners in the group are mostly about the issue of 'fried chicken.' At first, I thought it was about KFC or McDonald's, but after some time, I realized they were discussing a post-00s young man called 'Fried Chicken Brother' in another group.
It is said that this Fried Chicken Brother often shows off his wealth in various groups, claiming to have a family asset of 1 billion, buying 10 houses, owning various luxury cars like Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Cullinans, and directly earning A7A8 from certain projects... making many people envious and obedient to him. He deceived group members out of several million dollars (reportedly 4 million dollars) by establishing a successful persona in the cryptocurrency circle. Among those deceived were even some well-known Chinese bloggers. Now the scammer has run away with the money, and the victims are organizing to defend their rights. I have to say, although this Fried Chicken Brother is not very old, he is absolutely top-notch in terms of scheming and making money through scams. A local chicken has directly turned into fried chicken worth 4 million dollars, indeed taking away a lot of profit.

Source: Talking Li

In the previous article (January 29 Notion version), we also talked about Ethereum and mentioned several critical levels: $2700-2800, $2300-2400, and $2000-2100, as shown in the picture below. Unexpectedly, just about a week later, the price of ETH has dropped to around $1700.



Ethereum has dropped from last week's high of around $3000 to a low of around $1700 this week (as of the time of writing), a decline of about 42%, which has likely scared quite a few people in recent days. As shown in the picture below.

Source: Talking about Li
For a relatively long period of time, if you have been sticking to this field and also able to keep reading our articles, you should have noticed that the structure of the cryptocurrency market has undergone some changes. For example, the cycles of price increases have been getting shorter, and the speed at which various speculations (especially Memecoins) dissipate has been accelerating. Most people seem to find it difficult to grasp the changes in this rhythm.
Moreover, from a liquidity perspective, under the premise that there have been no new significant changes in the macro and funding structure, the funds that can effectively flow into this field are still insufficient to support a large cryptocurrency narrative bubble. Compared to other fields (stock markets, gold and silver, etc.), the current heat and opportunity cost of funds in this field seem to leave everyone with more continuously issued junk tokens and high FDV tokens that are still being unlocked...

Source: Talking about Li

In this age of information overload, we are bombarded with various news every day, such as regional conflicts, stock market fluctuations, oil price increases and decreases, and gold and silver price changes, etc. Some people like to treat these events as lively discussions, believing that they have nothing to do with them. Others prefer to make impulsive decisions about their investments based on the information they see, such as immediately investing heavily when they hear that Bitcoin has broken historical records, or selling Bitcoin to buy gold when they see that gold prices have surged past records, or running into the market again when they hear that silver has also broken records.

Source: Talking Li and Talking Outside

After this round of bull market, it is estimated that many people will change their plans and investment strategies, especially those who have been heavily invested in altcoins and are still stuck.

If you are still at a loss looking at your current position, it seems a bit unfair to the lessons learned from the real money spent over the past period. Speaking of painful lessons, based on the feedback from many partners and daily comments, let's help everyone summarize simply again:

First of all, do not completely base your operations on others' remarks or so-called historical rules.

Source: Hua Li Hua Wai
These past few days, I've seen some discussions in the group about CRS. The general idea is that, according to recent reports from certain crypto media websites, starting January 1, 2026, exchanges like Binance will send users' cryptocurrency transaction data to the tax authorities in the users' tax residence jurisdictions, so that tax authorities can carry out corresponding tax collection procedures.



This has led to several questions that many people might be concerned about:

- What exactly is CRS regarding cryptocurrencies?
- Which countries or regions will be included in the tax scope starting this year?

Last week (2025/12/31), I published 2 electronic books. One is from the Crypto series (Da Long's Thoughts on Encryption 2025), and the other is from the Travel series (Cultural Journey Series: National Museum of China). From the reading volume (download volume) these past few days, it hasn't been high. It seems that when the market sentiment isn't right, many people indeed don't feel like reading (reviewing) e-books.

However, this doesn't really matter to me personally. After all, the main purpose of publishing the annual electronic book collection is to archive and commemorate, especially for the related e-books of the Crypto series. Personally, I actually don't wish for them to spread too widely; maintaining a niche audience is the best.

Yesterday afternoon (December 22nd), I went to pick up my daughter from school. The weather forecast said it would snow that night. I looked up at the few clouds hanging in the sky, and since I don't have 100% trust in the weather forecast, I thought it was unlikely that it would snow that night.
 
When I looked through the window this morning, I found a thin layer of white snow on the terrace. It turned out that it really did snow last night!
 
Weather forecasts are actually quite accurate, but some people still don't trust their accuracy. And if someone tells you they can predict market trends 100% accurately, that's just nonsense.

Source: Talking inside and outside the topic

When the market is relatively boring, everyone seems to like discussing other things. For example, a few days ago, I saw some partners in the group discussing the use of AI. Some partners exported group chat records from the past year and analyzed different group members' user profiles using Gemini 3 Pro. They could even analyze emotion change charts based on certain keywords from historical chat records and relate them to market trends. It indeed seems to be an interesting attempt and research.

In about two weeks, 2025 will pass by in such a watery manner again. Although there have been some small rebounds in the market's short-term trends in recent weeks, perhaps for many people, the overall sentiment is still relatively pessimistic now, as they have deeply experienced the ruthlessness and cruelty of this market over the past year.

For a period of time, various high FDV projects have drained a lot of money from retail investors' pockets. Many airdrop projects have completely turned into a scheme for pumping and dumping. While various Memecoins have created overnight wealth miracles, they have also tarnished the not-so-good reputation of cryptocurrencies in the eyes of outsiders... No one is willing to truly invest funds into the long-term construction of the ecosystem anymore. Many old investors and diamond hands have suffered significant losses in this cycle, and most altcoins do not intend to join the so-called altcoin season that people are looking forward to.

Source: Talk About Li and Talk Outside

In the past few days, although various news in the market has been constant, the feeling is that many things are stagnant. The emotions of many people are stagnant, the market prices are stagnant, and even the number of followers and article views of this public account are also stagnant...

However, this doesn't have much impact on me. Apart from updating regularly according to my own plan, I can just continue doing whatever I want or should do regarding other matters.

Recently, perhaps because I have listened to quite a few broadcasts like 'Beipai Tomb Robbery Notes' and 'Tianxia Cangju', I suddenly developed a new interest in antique culture. So I plan to revisit some museums in Beijing. Last week, I first went to the National Museum and took many photos of cultural relics. These days, I am also studying and researching related materials correspondingly. I plan to open a column called 'Cultural Journey' in another public account 'Talk About Li and Talk Outside DAO' in the next couple of days, updating some related photography works and learning content, which is also a good opportunity to share with friends who are interested in this.

Source: Talk about Li and the outside

The recent market seems quite boring, and even the coins in my own portfolio have seen significant profit retracement. However, I haven't been too concerned about this because it feels like I've experienced such things countless times. As long as the coin's value remains unchanged, that's all that matters.

Every time I go through an extreme market situation, I always receive some interesting messages. For example, many of the messages in recent weeks have focused on:

- Is there still hope for Bitcoin to rise back to 120,000 USD this year?
- Can I buy the dip on Bitcoin for 80,000 USD now?

Source: Talking outside the lines
With the recent fluctuations in the market, I have noticed that many people seem to be talking about a bear market. However, I wonder if you have truly taken a moment to calmly think about what a bear market actually is?


Perhaps, for most retail investors, within their understanding, they believe that as long as the market continues to decline, it is a bear market, even though BTC is still maintaining a relatively high range at $90,000.

Many people tend to first see a certain outcome, and then attempt to find reasons based on that outcome to persuade others. For instance, BTC has continuously fallen from its historical high of $126,000 in October to $90,000 now (11.18). Some will list various reasons for this recent market decline, including macroeconomic reasons, institutional perspectives, policy factors, and cyclical aspects, etc., and then assertively tell others that the current market is indeed a bear market.