话李话外

As of the 2025 fiscal year, we have released 5 e-books, including the Crypto series and Travel series:
1. (Blockchain Thinking Advancement) 2023
This book is the e-book "Talking Li Talking Outside" launched on December 30, 2023, with approximately 123,000 words, divided into 9 main chapters, covering essential knowledge for newcomers, commonly used blockchain tools, self-cultivation for investors, investment and trading strategies, project research methodologies, blockchain knowledge popularization, and common knowledge of blockchain security.
2. (Blockchain Methodology) 2024
This book is the e-book "Talking Li Talking Outside" launched in 2024, with approximately 623,000 words, mainly divided into three major categories: investment strategy methodologies, self-cultivation for investors, and annual narratives, each of which consists of different sections of articles.

Article source: Talking about Li's Side Story
In the previous article, we mainly discussed Hyperliquid's HIP-4, Coinbase's financial report, the CLARITY Act, and the concept of Uniswap v4 Hook. We also mentioned that as regulations (mainly in the US) become clearer, crypto-related companies like Coinbase and Circle will be among the biggest beneficiaries. Therefore, stocks like COIN and CRCL are worth paying attention to.

However, I personally am not currently involved in trading US stocks; I am focusing more on the crypto space and continuing my dollar-cost averaging plan as shared in previous articles. Regarding the questions some readers have asked about trading stocks like COIN/CRCL, there are actually many US stock tutorials online. Those interested can search for them on Google or YouTube.

Source: Talk of the Town
1. Will Hyperliquid become a strong competitor in the prediction market?
In the previous article, we talked about Polymarket, and today we're diving into a similar new product. Just a few days ago, Hyperliquid officially launched the upgraded HIP-4, as shown in the image below. It seems like a pretty interesting product. Coincidentally, in our earlier article (April 18), we also mentioned HIP-3. So, what are the main differences between these two HIP (Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal) products?


In simple terms, HIP-3 can be seen as a self-deployable perpetual contract product. In this setup, anyone can open a perpetual contract, for example, you'll see various Perps on US stocks opened by others. The idea is quite similar to standard contracts on exchanges. If you want to get in on the action, just pick your target and go long or short. Of course, when I say 'anyone', I mean holders of HYPE tokens. If you have 500,000 HYPE to stake, you can use HIP-3 to set up a small pool and be the market maker yourself.

Source: Talking outside the lines
A few days ago (April 23), I came across a report stating that the U.S. Department of Justice has charged a soldier who recently participated in the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro. The reason? This dude placed a bet of $33,000 on the Polymarket platform before the capture mission, specifically between December 26 and January 2. His bets were mainly about whether Maduro would step down and if the U.S. would invade Venezuela. In the end, he raked in over $400,000 in profits and transferred that stash to a crypto wallet and a newly opened securities account. As shown in the chart below. Looks like this soldier caught on to Trump's trading vibes and wanted to dabble in insider trading, but in the end, it blew up in his face.

Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In the previous article, we were discussing DeFi and mentioned the early-month Drift hack, where $285 million was stolen. Now, less than a month later, on April 18th (Eastern Time), KelpDAO fell victim to another hack, losing $290 million (the attack took just 46 minutes and resulted in the theft of 116,500 rsETH, worth about $290 million). As shown in the chart below.


Moreover, the rsETH incident has also affected several other DeFi protocols, with Aave facing significant bad debt. According to the DefiLlama data platform, Aave V3's TVL is currently $14.9 billion, which has dropped about 42% from $25.9 billion before the hack, as shown in the chart below.

Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In the previous article (April 10), we mainly discussed the topic of DeFi. From the background data and message situation, it seems that everyone has lost much interest in this topic. However, this is understandable. After all, when the overall market is not good, people don't have much mood to talk about those old topics or narratives.

Yes, overall, the cryptocurrency market basically has no new stories at the moment. People's attention and focus have completely shifted to the oil war, gold, and AI. The so-called DeFi also seems to have little attraction. As we mentioned in the previous article, the decline in on-chain yields has already caused many speculative funds to lose their motivation to continue participating in DeFi. On the surface, the DeFi sector seems to be getting worse.

Source: Talking about Li
Last week, many people probably saw the news about the theft from Drift, which was reportedly carried out by a group related to North Korea. The attackers spent six months lurking (the actual execution only took a few minutes) and, with an investment of one million dollars, directly stole 285 million dollars worth of crypto assets.


According to public statements, rather than saying that Drift was attacked by a North Korean team, it is more accurate to say that it was a precise harvest after six months of being set up. Of course, the specific process of how the theft occurred, whether there were any issues with Drift's internal personnel, are not the issues we want to delve into today. What we want to discuss here is: Is DeFi still suitable for ordinary people to participate in?

Source: Talking Outside the Box
In the previous article, we mainly discussed MicroStrategy, and then I saw some friends in the background asking about BlackRock. In fact, these two institutions are somewhat related. For example, we shared in last year's e-book that BlackRock holds a portion of MicroStrategy's shares. As shown in the figure below.


But regarding the way to play with Bitcoin, these two institutions have completely different strategies. In simple terms, MicroStrategy's strategy can be described as a buy-and-hold strategy (which we have shared in detail in previous articles), while BlackRock is currently the world's largest BTC ETF issuer, with its IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) still maintaining a scale of 51.8 billion dollars. As shown in the figure below.

Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate as expected. Although this week's price has also fallen back to around $70,000 from the previous high of around $76,000, overall, especially against the backdrop of conflicts between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, Bitcoin's performance in the past few weeks has still been relatively better than gold and stocks.


I don't know if everyone has noticed, since entering March, although many retail investors remain pessimistic and on the sidelines, some institutions continue to accumulate and buy Bitcoin in large quantities, especially the most representative Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy). According to official public information, in just the past 20 days, Strategy has continued to purchase Bitcoin worth over $3 billion.

Cover Design: Talking Inside and Outside
In the previous article (March 4th), when discussing the topic of information acquisition, I mentioned that I also pay attention to some other bloggers' public accounts, which can be considered a learning process.

Although different bloggers often have different viewpoints, theoretically, our daily learning can appropriately include some completely different perspectives, as this is also a direct way to test our cognitive framework. If a person consistently chooses to read only those thoughts they completely agree with, they may easily fall into an information cocoon or experience what is known in psychology as confirmation bias.

Source: Talking about Li and talking outside
I feel that the information nowadays is often quite fragmented. For example, when I recently went to pick up my daughter from school, I could hardly hear anyone discussing AI or lobster topics; the conversations were mostly about the situation in Iran and children's homework. However, from the online channels I follow, it seems that almost everyone is raising lobsters (OpenClaw). I heard that a few days ago, there was a free lobster installation event at the Tencent building, and over a thousand people showed up, including a 60-year-old man waiting in line to install lobsters.

Source: Talking Li, Talking Outside
In our previous article (March 2), we briefly discussed the topic of AI and mentioned that AI is more about enhancing your ability or space to acquire information and will not directly enhance your cognitive level.

This statement has sparked discussions among some friends in the group. Some agreed, while others believed that AI can directly enhance cognitive levels. Although opinions differ, I think that's great because a good discussion among peers is also a very good learning atmosphere.

Source: Talking about Li and the outside
A few days ago, I received a rather interesting comment: You mentioned in your article that there is still a 70% position in Bitcoin, so when Bitcoin was at $126,000 last year, why didn't you sell all at once?

If you look back at history from the perspective of the present, many people would feel that they understand things, and would often sigh that it would have been better if they or others had done things differently back then. However, such time travel can only happen in TV dramas. In real life, we should be more realistic, especially when it comes to investing. Investing is not fortune-telling; it doesn't mean that every trade must be sold at the highest point (or bought at the lowest point) all at once. Instead, it should be about strictly executing your trading plan and adhering to your trading discipline.

Source: Talking Outside of Talking
I thought that during the New Year period, everyone's mood should generally be good, but I didn't expect to encounter some cute individuals. In the past few days, I have directly blocked several people on the public account backend. My criteria for blocking people are actually quite simple, mainly two: one is those who frequently leave comments to post advertisements, and the other is those who use foul language to insult others.

For example, someone saw the title of my last article (February 14) and probably didn't read the main text carefully, immediately leaving a comment insulting others, arguing that Bitcoin's bear market can only drop to 50,000 USD at most! Let me put it this way, any rebuttal here is fine with me, and I welcome anyone to leave different opinions in the public account, but as long as you insult others, you will be directly blocked.

Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
The recent market conditions may also be poor, and with the increasing FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), many people's emotions seem to have worsened. Take the representative Crypto Fear & Greed Index as an example; the index value has now reached 8 (Extreme Fear), as shown in the figure below.


In any circle, emotions will exist, whether in a large market or a small community. Emotions are a double-edged sword; if utilized well, they can help one earn money by gaining insights ahead of others. However, if a person is constantly swayed by various emotions, it may affect their operational rhythm and positions.

In recent days, the market has been relatively quiet. Today, I found that the discussions among partners in the group are mostly about the issue of 'fried chicken.' At first, I thought it was about KFC or McDonald's, but after some time, I realized they were discussing a post-00s young man called 'Fried Chicken Brother' in another group.
It is said that this Fried Chicken Brother often shows off his wealth in various groups, claiming to have a family asset of 1 billion, buying 10 houses, owning various luxury cars like Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and Cullinans, and directly earning A7A8 from certain projects... making many people envious and obedient to him. He deceived group members out of several million dollars (reportedly 4 million dollars) by establishing a successful persona in the cryptocurrency circle. Among those deceived were even some well-known Chinese bloggers. Now the scammer has run away with the money, and the victims are organizing to defend their rights. I have to say, although this Fried Chicken Brother is not very old, he is absolutely top-notch in terms of scheming and making money through scams. A local chicken has directly turned into fried chicken worth 4 million dollars, indeed taking away a lot of profit.

Source: Talking Li
In the previous article (January 29 Notion version), we also talked about Ethereum and mentioned several critical levels: $2700-2800, $2300-2400, and $2000-2100, as shown in the picture below. Unexpectedly, just about a week later, the price of ETH has dropped to around $1700.


Ethereum has dropped from last week's high of around $3000 to a low of around $1700 this week (as of the time of writing), a decline of about 42%, which has likely scared quite a few people in recent days. As shown in the picture below.

Source: Talking about Li
For a relatively long period of time, if you have been sticking to this field and also able to keep reading our articles, you should have noticed that the structure of the cryptocurrency market has undergone some changes. For example, the cycles of price increases have been getting shorter, and the speed at which various speculations (especially Memecoins) dissipate has been accelerating. Most people seem to find it difficult to grasp the changes in this rhythm.
Moreover, from a liquidity perspective, under the premise that there have been no new significant changes in the macro and funding structure, the funds that can effectively flow into this field are still insufficient to support a large cryptocurrency narrative bubble. Compared to other fields (stock markets, gold and silver, etc.), the current heat and opportunity cost of funds in this field seem to leave everyone with more continuously issued junk tokens and high FDV tokens that are still being unlocked...

Source: Talking about Li
In this age of information overload, we are bombarded with various news every day, such as regional conflicts, stock market fluctuations, oil price increases and decreases, and gold and silver price changes, etc. Some people like to treat these events as lively discussions, believing that they have nothing to do with them. Others prefer to make impulsive decisions about their investments based on the information they see, such as immediately investing heavily when they hear that Bitcoin has broken historical records, or selling Bitcoin to buy gold when they see that gold prices have surged past records, or running into the market again when they hear that silver has also broken records.

Source: Talking Li and Talking Outside
After this round of bull market, it is estimated that many people will change their plans and investment strategies, especially those who have been heavily invested in altcoins and are still stuck.

If you are still at a loss looking at your current position, it seems a bit unfair to the lessons learned from the real money spent over the past period. Speaking of painful lessons, based on the feedback from many partners and daily comments, let's help everyone summarize simply again:

First of all, do not completely base your operations on others' remarks or so-called historical rules.