Many people may have some obvious feelings these days. Some time ago, many people were posting information about airdrops, and recently many people have continued to discuss the topic of MemeCoin. If you have experienced the overall market from last year to this year, then does this path of development seem familiar to you?
First, the topic of airdrops began to be hyped, and at the same time, some projects began to officially launch airdrops; then, new wealth-making stories continued to appear in various MemeCoins; so next, does it mean that a new round of market conditions may be launched?
But what is different from last year’s airdrop season is that after experiencing the climax of the previous rounds of airdrops, the current airdrop track has undergone great changes. In the past, many people could eat luxury Michelin sets through airdrops, but now more people can only eat a pork trotter meal.
This has also led to more and more people not seeming to have any new interest in airdrops, but instead preferring to gamble on MemeCoin or something. Airdrops and MemeCoin have almost become the two most popular topics for retail investors since this round of bull market.
1. Let’s talk about airdrops briefly
In recent days, people have been discussing the airdrops of projects such as Puffer, Swell, and CARV. In addition, various KOLs and airdrop hunters on the Internet have also been posting tutorials on how to participate in airdrops of various projects.
Since Uniswap started the interactive airdrop game in 2020, airdrops seem to have become one of the best ways to launch crypto projects. This process is also accompanied by a huge wealth-creating effect. Many people have made considerable profits by participating in early airdrops, making airdrops a popular way to make money, and even many professional airdrop studios have emerged.
In fact, before Uniswap's airdrop, the method of airdropping tokens also existed, such as the ICO trend that was quite popular around 2017, and many people also made their first pot of gold in this field through ICO. However, as various problems later arose in ICO, DeFi's liquidity WA mine began to become more popular again. It was not until Uniswap's airdrop that the interactive hair-pulling thing officially came to the fore.
As time goes by, things will naturally change. The users who participated in the project were important community members at the beginning, but in the end they gradually turned into a string of cold wallet address data.
On the one hand, the project owners turn a blind eye to various hair-pulling studios, because they need to use these studios to generate a large amount of interactive data, and then use this data to attract attention and get financing. On the other hand, during the actual airdrop, the project owners will establish more and more complex and strict witch detection for the sake of profit, and then kill the donkey after it has done its work, and carry out precise harvesting and sniping.
Especially since last year, the popularity of point airdrops has further facilitated the internal operations of the project side (such as insider trading). As a result, the project side continues to conduct PUA, and the profiteers begin to fight against PUA. Various means of profiteering are also constantly improving, such as from manual mass profiteering by studios to automated profiteering using scripts, etc.
In short, in the face of the ultimate benefits, most users cannot escape the scythe that is swinging at them. Although many people are now terrified of airdrops, this is also a necessary path for the development of things. As far as airdrops themselves are concerned, they can still be regarded as something with a relatively high odds. However, for project owners, it will become increasingly difficult to rely solely on PUA to trick retail investors into participating; and for ordinary small retail investors, it will become increasingly difficult to make big money using airdrops.
2. Let’s talk about MemeCoin
In the previous article (October 10), we mentioned: Everyone should establish their own investment standards or investment system. Don’t guess the market casually, but anchor an operating logic that you agree with.
To give a simple example, for example, you are more interested in MemeCoin, but there are many execution angles for trading MemeCoin, and different people may have different angles. Some people pay most attention to the activity and influence of the MemeCoin community, some people pay attention to whether it has the potential to be listed on a major exchange and its liquidity, some people pay attention to on-chain data (such as the number of holders, holding structure, etc.), some people pay attention to the K-line movement, some people like to study the manipulation rhythm of the dealer, and some people like to use TGbot to rush to new plates... and so on.
You need to find the logic that you agree with most, and then trade according to your own logic and continuously optimize your trading strategy. Instead of having no judgment logic, just rush in when you hear someone say that a certain MemeCoin can make money, or hold on to a certain MemeCoin that you think will continue to soar (long-term holding and holding on to it completely are two different concepts).
Remember in the previous series of articles on MemeCoin, we also sorted out a lot of on-chain tools, methods for finding potential MemeCoins, and transaction security strategies. But methods and strategies also need to be constantly tried and improved by yourself. When others decide to share many things publicly, they can no longer be regarded as a unique method. What you need to do is to learn from these historical experiences or historical methods and form a new set of methods that suit you.
For example, for those who like to buy new stocks, some people will use the news to buy in as soon as possible, while others will buy by monitoring the real-time movements of smart wallets... and so on.
Take the method of using PNL (Profit and Loss) to track potential MemeCoins by finding smart wallets. If you look at the publicly shared tutorials, this seems to be an easy thing to do, but if you just follow other people's tutorials, it is actually difficult for you to buy coins that increase tenfold or a hundredfold.
First of all, you need to make a comprehensive judgment based on multiple dimensions to determine whether the smart wallets you found are real smart wallets or the project's own wallets. Secondly, even if the smart wallets look real, you need to make some basic judgments to determine whether they are specifically for retail investors. Now some project owners will buy old wallets to lure orders.
Sometimes, what you want to see may be what others want you to see. Sometimes, the project owner may also know the public tutorials or methods you are using. As the saying goes, the higher the virtue, the higher the evil. There is no method that is immutable. What we need to do is to establish our own set of operating logic, and then continuously optimize the corresponding methods based on this logic, so that we can keep leading in the corresponding subdivisions as much as possible.
Of course, if it is difficult for you to form your own logic or methodology in a short period of time, then the easiest way is to directly buy the top (leading) projects in the track you are optimistic about in batches.
For example, if you think and are optimistic that there will be new opportunities in the Runes track in the future, then just go ahead and buy the leading projects (such as Longyi). If you don’t know what Runes is yet, then it is not recommended to make any trading operations.
Since we mentioned Runes above, let’s talk a little more about it here. In the past two weeks, the overall growth of the Runes track seems to be very good, and the price of many currencies has increased by more than 100%. As shown in the figure below.
Take DOG as an example. Its increase in the past month has exceeded 120%. In addition, judging from the currency holding situation, the PVP phenomenon of DOG empty blocks obtained from holding Runestone seems to be still quite serious. The recent recovery of the Runes sector may be more due to the FOMO sentiment driven by the soaring prices of the top rune projects.
In addition, from the perspective of trading volume, the daily volume trends of the Runes market also show signs of recovery, as shown in the figure below.
At the same time, here is an extra reminder, because many people trade runes through portals such as OKX Web3 wallet, but you should also be careful to prevent fraud. You must conduct necessary checks before operation (such as checking the rune ID, the number of holders, etc.), because the runes you searched may also be fake (anyone can deploy projects on the chain), and the transaction volume of fake runes can be brushed up by the project party. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, we have simply judged that Runes seems to be recovering based on the trend of trading volume. As for whether the hype will continue to blow to the Runes sector, it may need to be combined with the trend of Bitcoin. We can’t say for sure. But if time and energy permit, it is right to pay more attention to the opportunities in Runes.
Judging from the current market situation, the PVP phenomenon in the Runes sector seems to be still quite serious. The recent recovery of the Runes sector may be more due to the FOMO sentiment driven by the soaring prices of the top rune projects. For short-term operations, just pay attention to setting up take-profit/stop-loss. If the subsequent liquidity is not enough to support new growth, then those small runes or the newly hyped runes will most likely fall first (how fast they rise now, how fast they will fall later).
If you don't have much time and energy but don't want to miss the possible opportunities of runes, then the simplest way is to buy the top runes with a small position (or a position that you can bear the corresponding volatility risk) as mentioned above. Please note that this is just a way of thinking, not a specific trading guide, and it does not mean that you can go all in on the runes such as DOG mentioned above. DYOR, don't forget the two basic rules for new investors that we shared before: keep the principal and don't touch if you don't understand.
In short, the topic of airdrops seems to be getting more popular recently, and some projects have started airdrops; the popularity of runes is rising, and it has also driven the rise of inscriptions and other MemeCoins; if there are no major black swan events in the future, from the perspective of the market trend, the overall feeling is bullish, and the market may only need or wait for a favorable stimulus at this stage. As for when the new round of market will start, we cannot predict it. If you continue to be optimistic about the crypto market, then ignore the short-term noise of the market and continue to wait patiently. The money in the market will eventually flow from the majority of impetuous people to the hands of a small number of patient people.
We will share the content of this issue here. You can view more articles on the homepage of Hualihuawai. The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, which is only used for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
