Fantom (FTM) has seen a significant rally over the past 30 days, rising 68% and sparking speculation of a return to $1. However, despite this impressive performance, on-chain data suggests that a run towards this milestone is far from guaranteed.

The FTM price last hit $1 six months ago. In this analysis, BeInCrypto reveals the challenges ahead and what investors should watch out for.

Are Bitcoin Holders Holding Fantom Back?

On September 22, Fantom reached $0.71 after the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern helped validate the uptrend. However, the altcoin is trading at $0.69, indicating that the anticipated run to $1 has been contained.

According to data from IntoTheBlock, holders are largely responsible for this drop. Furthermore, Coin Holding Time, which measures the time a cryptocurrency has been held without being sold, increased until October 4.

This development suggests strong conviction in the short-term potential. However, over the past four days, Fantom’s Coin Holding Time has decreased, suggesting that holders have profited from the recent rally. If sustained, this selling pressure could prevent the price from rising further.

Fantom Coin Holding Time. Source: IntoTheBlock

Another factor that could hinder the cryptocurrency’s progress is its correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). Based on data from IntoTheBlock, the 30-day correlation matrix between BTC and FTM is 0.92. This matrix or coefficient ranges from -1 to +1, where the former indicates little to no correlation while the latter signifies a strong directional movement.

The current reading of the coefficient indicates that FTM is moving in almost the same direction as Bitcoin. But recently, the price of Bitcoin, which reached $64,000 yesterday, has declined to $62,383. Thus, the price is likely to follow a similar direction due to the bond that the cryptocurrencies share.

Fantom Price Correlation with Bitcoin. Source: IntoTheBlock

Read more: What is Fantom (FTM) – A Beginner’s Guide

Price forecast

On the daily chart, the FTM price is approaching the supply zone at $0.73. Historically, whenever the altcoin reaches this point, it experiences a pullback. For example, on May 10, the price reached $0.73. But soon after, it dropped to $0.64.

A similar event occurred on June 8, when FTM was rejected as soon as it reached this point. Should the same pattern repeat itself in this instance, the price could drop to $0.60. Furthermore, a highly bearish scenario could see a drop to $0.52.

Fantom Daily Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if the bulls want to avoid the downside, they need to push the token well above the $0.73 resistance. If successful, the FTM/USD pair could rally to $0.80 and subsequently towards $1 in the near term.

The article Fantom (FTM) Up 68% in 30 Days: What’s Next? appeared first on BeInCrypto.