Bitcoin experienced another graphic drop in the middle of last evening, temporarily bringing its price close to 60,000 dollars.
Today in the early hours of the morning, the quotations seem to be heading towards a partial recovery, but surprises in the crypto sector are always just around the corner.
Waiting for the latest CPI data on US inflation, Bitcoin could move suddenly, unleashing its price volatility.
Let’s see what to expect from now on from Bitcoin: will “uptober” finally bring us back to a bull market, or will the prices see a further drop?
Bitcoin: the latest price drop scares traders
New day, new price drop for Bitcoin: the cryptocurrency marks a decline of about 2% in the last 24 hours settling at 60,900 dollars.
At the end of September, the currency had attempted to break through the 66,000 dollars, but ended up being absorbed by the bear sales.
Last week the bulls resumed their upward attack, coinciding with the month of October, which historically proves to be positive for Bitcoin.
In a few days, however, the chart here also started to turn red, with the bullish desire that stopped at 63,700 dollars.
In the late afternoon of yesterday, the latest collapse of the crypto price occurred, which, after hinting at a rise to 62,500 dollars, ended in a downtrend.
The quotations reached a local minimum at 60,300 dollars during the night and then hinted at a slight recovery this morning.
In total, approximately 30 billion dollars have been wiped out from the Bitcoin market with the latest bear crash.
The reasons that led to the decline in the price of Bitcoin are multiple.
Certainly, the arrival of the catastrophic hurricane Milton in Orlando did not contribute positively to the fate of the speculative market.
In reality, however, the crash yesterday seems to be due to a mix of factors, including geopolitical tensions and upcoming macroeconomic changes.
In any case, Bitcoin has not yet lost the main supports on higher time frames and still seems to be in the running to attempt new future increases.
It is definitely not the time to panic, at least as long as the currency holds steady at the 60,000 dollar level.
Strong volatility for Bitcoin awaiting inflation data (CPI)
A negative push to the collapse of Bitcoin’s price might have come with the uncertainty of the data on US inflation, being released this afternoon.
At 2:30 PM, the updates of the “Consumer Price Index” (CPI), which measures the changes in prices of goods and services, will be released.
The analysts, after observing a strong drop in inflation in August, expect another easing in the wake of the progress of the previous restrictive monetary policy.
The target is set at 2.3%, while the current inflation rate of prices is at 2.5%: if data better than expectations emerge, Bitcoin could easily recover the drop.
On the other hand, a value higher than the 2.3% mark could create panic among investors, as it would demonstrate the inefficiency of the FED’s interventions.
A controlled inflation rate, tending downwards, indeed justifies potential interest rate cuts on government bonds, which could fuel speculative markets.
In the meantime, as the data is released, Bitcoin could experience significant price volatility, with uncertainty reigning supreme.
There are strong probabilities of observing fake movements around 2:30 PM, with traps on the horizon for less experienced traders.
To keep an eye on the 60,000 dollar level: if it remains intact, it will be an excellent positive signal for the future price of the crypto.
$BTC daily
still holding the fed cut level at $60K, but sellers did some damage with a close below this potential H&S neckline
CPI tomorrow likely determines whether this plays out or if it is a bear trap pic.twitter.com/XnJn7ozCPp
— Super฿ro (@SuperBitcoinBro) October 10, 2024
Analysis of Bitcoin derivatives: open interest, funding rate, and liquidations
While Bitcoin prepares for another possible price crash, the derivative data does not seem to be in such bad shape.
In fact, while on one hand Bitcoin is experiencing a decline in prices, on the other hand, the open interest is slightly increasing, reaching 18.57 billion dollars.
This suggests that the interest in speculation remains high, opening the doors to possible short-term trend reversals.
We remind you that since the beginning of September, the open interest on Bitcoin has increased by about 2.5 billion dollars, supporting the bull thesis.
According to the data from Coinglass, the funding rate on Bitcoin remains uncertain with some brokers reflecting positive values and others negative.
This shows how on the various exchanges and derivative speculation markets, some traders expect a bear while others expect a bull in the short term.
The liquidations after the latest crash are not particularly significant and do not add important material for the analysis of Bitcoin prices.
In the last 24 hours, only 40 million dollars have been wiped out, demonstrating that the bear was not so violent.
Watch the 60,000 dollar level, as already reiterated, because its break would likely lead the crypto to test the 57,000 dollar area.
Possible price scenarios for Bitcoin from now on
As can be easily inferred, the latest Bitcoin crash has not compromised particularly important price levels, leaving various future scenarios open.
What to pay attention to are the extremes of the macro range 71,500-55,000 dollars, on which Bitcoin has been traveling since March.
All price movements that will be recorded within this trading zone will not have a decisive impact on the medium-term future of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, the break of a new all-time high or the drop below 55.00 dollars could more certainly establish the chart trend of the currency.
It is clear, therefore, that at the moment we find ourselves in a position from which it is difficult to make sensible forecasts.
In any case, several indicators seem to weigh more in favor of a future rise, such as the seasonality of Bitcoin trading, macro data, and derivatives.
We remain waiting to discover which extreme of the range will be broken, with on the horizon an outlook that appears promising for the last quarter of the year.
It will be crucial to observe how Bitcoin will close the month of October, and if it will follow the bull phase of September.
