Since 1984, the U.S. stock market has an astonishing 100% accuracy rate in predicting presidential elections!
Analysts have found that in every election year, as long as the S&P 500 index rises cumulatively during this period from August to October, the incumbent ruling party will win the election. Conversely, whenever the S&P 500 index falls during this period, the opposition party will win the election.
In addition to the U.S. stock market, Lynch and Anderson also found another election prediction indicator worth paying attention to: the Misery Index.
The Misery Index covers the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and annual inflation rate, and its purpose is to measure the economic pain felt by the American people. Generally speaking, the higher the Misery Index, the more difficult it is for people to find jobs and suffer more economic pain in terms of rising prices.
Statistical results show that since 1980, the Misery Index has also predicted every election with 100% accuracy!
The three-month moving average of the Misery Index from August to October in each election year can accurately predict the election results: as long as the Misery Index rises, the ruling party will lose the election, and vice versa.
The US Misery Index in August was 6.73%, although it was far lower than the peak of 12.66% during the Biden administration in July 2022
5446 in August, now 5700, according to this indicator, Harris will win?
