According to the latest data from Polymarket, today (30), the market predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a record high in 2024 with a probability of 60%, and the current bet amount is about $140,000. This prediction strongly reflects investors' confidence in Bitcoin's price performance in the coming year, especially in the context of the changing macroeconomic factors after the current US interest rate cut.
The condition for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in 2024 is: breaking through US$73,777 this year according to Binance data.
In contrast, data from Polymarket shows that Ethereum (ETH) has only a 16% chance of hitting a new all-time high in 2024, but the amount of bets is $1.67 million. This result shows that although investors' confidence in Ethereum's sharp rise in the short term is relatively weak, there is still a lot of money betting on its potential performance.
The condition for Ethereum to set a new all-time high in 2024 is: breaking through US$4,868 this year according to Binance data.
ETH/BTC ratio has low chance of rebounding in the short term
Judging from the market data above, the probability of Bitcoin hitting a record high is significantly higher than that of Ethereum, suggesting that the ETH/BTC ratio will be difficult to rebound in the short term. This trend shows that investors are more optimistic about the performance of Bitcoin in the next few months, while Ethereum may face more challenges. By the end of the year, the short-term market sentiment may be "Bitcoin is strong, Ethereum is weak". .
The ETH/BTC ratio has shown a significant downward trend since the beginning of 2024, falling from a high of about 0.06 to the current level of around 0.04, showing that the value of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin continues to weaken, currently at 0.04062 .
