A new month begins and we welcome National Day. I wish our motherland prosperity and everyone a happy National Day.
BTC continued to fall yesterday, with the lowest price reaching 62,800 US dollars, showing certain signs of stopping the decline. So, at this point in the price, will it bottom out and rebound?
Bao's speech last night gave the market some support, predicting that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, with a total of 50 basis points.
After Bitcoin hit a high of $66,000 early yesterday morning (30), it continued to fall for nearly 24 hours, and fell to $62,850 at around 7:30 a.m. It was reported at $63,410 before press time, down 3.05% in the past 24 hours, and the gains in the past week have almost been fully renounced.
In addition, since September 20, Bitcoin has touched US$62,400 several times. It is speculated that many investors have placed stop losses at this point. Therefore, it is not ruled out that Bitcoin may further retrace this point. If it quickly falls below and then rebounds, there may be a more powerful rise.
As for Ethereum, it hit a low of $2,574 this morning, but the overall decline was smaller than that of Bitcoin, and it had rebounded to above $2,600 before press time.
The entire network has a liquidation of 223 million US dollars in the past 24 hours
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidations across the entire network reached US$223 million, of which US$183 million was long position liquidations, and a total of more than 77,000 people were liquidated.
CryptoQuant: Open interest exceeds $19.1 billion, long squeeze
As for why BTC plummeted? CryptoQuant analysts told The Block: Speculation in the cryptocurrency futures market is growing, with open interest reaching about $19.1 billion. Since March 2024, open interest has only exceeded $18 billion six times, and each time there has been a price drop.
Bitcoin perpetual contract market data shows that a long squeeze has occurred in recent hours as long liquidations surge.
A long squeeze occurs when the price of an asset such as Bitcoin falls, forcing traders holding leveraged long positions to either sell or face liquidation to meet margin requirements.
This selling pressure could push prices further down, triggering additional margin calls and forced liquidations, amplifying downward momentum.
Is the rise above $66,000 a lure to buy?
Blockchain analysis platform Santiment also reminded over the weekend that if you are expecting Bitcoin to hit a record high, you may have to wait until people lower their expectations. Currently, the number of bullish views far exceeds the bearish views, but historically, the market always develops in the opposite direction of public expectations.
Recently, some fans have a pessimistic view on the market in October due to the short-term correction in the past two days. In my opinion, Bitcoin will and will most likely rise sharply in October!
1. Seasonal factors:
According to the BTC monthly return rate from 2013 to 2023 (see figure below), BTC rose in October in 9 out of 11 years, and 8 of them were big rises; the other 2 years were falls; seasonal factors will give traders strong trend hints, driving the rise of BTC in October.
2. FTX compensation fund repatriation:
FTX plans to distribute more than $16 billion to its creditors. According to the schedule, the distribution will begin in mid-October. After receiving the stablecoin compensation, the creditors will most likely reinvest in cryptocurrencies.
3. Incremental funds from the global interest rate cuts:
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time on September 18, China launched a trillion-dollar money printing this week; the central banks of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, India and other countries will also follow suit and accelerate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter. Under this massive money printing, scarce assets such as the "water buffalo" BTC will appreciate rapidly.
4. The main uptrend starts in the sixth month after halving:
Referring to the previous rounds of bull markets, 5-6 months after the BTC halving day every 4 years, BTC will start the main upward trend.
5. The shock wash is sufficient and the fund absorption is completed:
From March to September this year, BTC was brutally washed out in the 50,000-70,000 range for 6 months, and the weight has been very low; according to the on-chain data analyzed by my fund, the whale's accumulation of funds is almost complete and is ready to go.
In summary, BTC is likely to rise sharply in October this year! The first half of October may be a bit slow, but the second half of October will be outstanding.
