In the past, we have come up with a theorem that "when China is on holiday, the overseas market will change", and this time may be no exception.

1. This morning we published an article titled "The Fed Made a Tough Decision". According to Bloomberg, the 50 basis point rate cut did not receive the support of all members of the Fed. From the perspective of unity, Powell may eventually choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If the Fed only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, there may be a wave of selling. Of course, it is not ruled out that the Wall Street Journal's article on Thursday was leaked by Powell, with the purpose of forcing Fed officials to support a 50 basis point rate cut through market performance. Because if the probability of the market digesting a 50 basis point rate cut next week reaches more than 80%, Fed officials know what will happen if the rate cut is 25 basis points.

2. Yesterday we released a series of surveys, and market sentiment has changed significantly:

68% of investors believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and 32% believe it will cut by 50 basis points.

65% of investors are bullish on gold prices next week (most were bearish last week), and 26% are bearish.

59% of investors are pessimistic about the performance of A-shares next week (the bearish ratio was 62% last week), and 30% are bullish.

56% of investors are bullish on U.S. stocks next week (most were bearish last week), and 33% are bearish.

3. Fortunately, Chinese investors will be able to witness the "Fed's first rate cut". Unfortunately, the market tends to change the day after the rate cut, and it will be a thrilling journey.

In the past, the Fed didn’t like surprises. Now, the Fed has been “creating surprises”. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？