Although China's financial markets were closed for a holiday, the world's eyes were on China.

This week is an extremely important week for the global market. Today is also a critical trading day. Chinese investors missed an important start.

1. The market will continue to debate whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, and the news media may once again report internal information about the Federal Reserve. The current market expectation is a 50-50 probability, and the balance can easily be broken.

2. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September will be released tonight (previous value: -4.7; market expectation: -4). This was an insignificant data in the past, but it is different this time. If the data continues to fall into negative values, it will be the 10th consecutive month in the negative area, which will trigger market concerns about economic recession.

Note: The index is a leading indicator of manufacturing vitality. An index above 0 indicates expansion of the manufacturing industry, while an index below 0 means contraction. Although it only reflects the situation in New York State, since New York State is an important economic center in the United States, the index is regarded as an early signal of the national manufacturing industry and therefore has certain reference value for economists, investors and policymakers.

Since there is only one data released today, it is bound to trigger a strong reaction from the market. We are highly concerned about how the market will react if the data is lower than market expectations. On the one hand, the increased concerns about economic recession may cause the market to fall. But on the other hand, it may further increase the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, triggering a market rally. The market's choice will be very important. If it is the former, then even if the Fed announces a 50 basis point rate cut this week, it will trigger a wave of selling, and will also make the Fed carefully consider the option of a 50 basis point rate cut.

3. Another focus today is China, because China released a series of economic data on Saturday, and global traders are focusing on this, and the market needs to give feedback. The obvious decline in US crude oil at the beginning of the session is digesting these data. In addition, Hong Kong stocks will also be the focus of traders.

Although today is a rather dull day, it is a day that tests your wisdom. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？