Will the rate be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points? The answer seems to be out.
On Thursday and Friday this week, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times published news that "a 50 basis point rate cut is still an option", which triggered a heated discussion on the 50 basis point rate cut. However, neither of these two articles gave a clear answer, but only listed the reasons why both a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut are reasonable.
But today, Bloomberg News published an article written by senior economic editor Craig Stirling titled "The World is Ready for the Fed's Rate Cut," which revealed many signals.
We (Bloomberg Economics) believe that Fed Chairman Powell supports a 50bp rate cut. However, New York Fed President Williams did not send a clear signal before the pre-meeting quiet period, leading us to believe that Powell does not have the support of the full committee.
First, Bloomberg has been the media that speculates on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, but now believes that Powell's view of a 50 basis point rate cut has not been supported by all members. During Powell's tenure as Fed chairman, dissent has been rare. From the Fed's perspective, it is possible that all members support a 25 basis point rate cut, but it is impossible for all members to support a 50 basis point rate cut.
Second, the reason why this article believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates by 50 basis points is the speech of New York Fed President Williams, who was the last official to speak before the quiet period. The last official to speak did not send a clear signal, and it was obvious that there were internal disagreements. Williams' speech at the time: It is appropriate to cut interest rates now, and there is no idea whether it should be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.
Bloomberg published such an article when the "50 basis point rate cut discussion" was prevalent. It is possible that it got first-hand information, indicating that the Federal Reserve has made a difficult decision. However, there is another possibility that Bloomberg's information came from other senior officials of the Federal Reserve, not Powell. Powell spread the "rumor of a 50 basis point rate cut" through the news media, allowing the market to fully digest the rumor, forcing other Federal Reserve officials to agree to a 50 basis point rate cut.
In addition, Yahoo Finance also published a piece of news today, expressing its own views rarely - the Federal Reserve will almost certainly announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18 (Beijing time will be 2:00 a.m. on September 19), which will be the beginning of a gradual easing cycle. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #BTC☀
