Reviewing the last wave of decline, the first kinetic energy column contracted at 67k on 0722, the daily line dead cross closed at 64k on 0731, the bull market oscillation center was broken at 61k on 0802, and the zero axis was broken at 58k on 0804. These are the four positions I think are worth shorting.
I was between 0731 and 0802, breaking the center and confirming the short position reduction with the dead cross. For me, breaking the trend line is slightly more important than kinetic energy.
Some people will say, why don’t you choose to reduce your position at 67k or 64k, but at the highest point.
First, now is the review. At that time, 64 and 67 were just short-selling trends, which did not mean that they would definitely continue. Moreover, my experience over the years has told me that the probability of successful trading based on the daily kinetic energy column will not exceed half, and the dead cross is a little higher. At the moment, I really dare not conclude that it will fall again, but in August, the dead cross + breaking the trend line confirmed the short position and sold it in time. At that time, the reduction price was 6.2, and the lowest price fell to 4.9.
OP I also reduced my position with the same strategy, but I did not reduce my position at the highest point. I cleared my position at 3.6, and the highest price was 4.8. Now it is not wrong.
Second, I am a trend-oriented person, and I have a high tolerance for intraday fluctuations. As long as the key indicators are not broken, I will not consider reducing my position. And I think that wave may develop into a relatively large trend. In the end, it turns out that I made a wrong judgment and it did not develop, so I left the market in time.
The third and most important thing is that the weekly level short position and the daily level long position in the past five months have become weaker and weaker. Before, it could touch the upper edge or 67k 70k. It is reflected in the technical indicators that even if the short momentum weakened or even the dead cross, it could still set a new high, but recently, the most important thing is that the momentum weakens to the highest point.
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Therefore, the daily trend still needs to be combined with the 3-day/weekly market and other technical macro indicators. There is no need to worry about the monthly trend at present.
