At 9:00 am Beijing time on September 11, Democratic candidate for Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump faced off for the first time in a presidential debate held by ABC in Philadelphia. This high-stakes showdown is only eight weeks away from Election Day in November, and opinion polls show that the competition is very fierce.
Unlike the last debate with President Biden, Trump accepted a handshake at the beginning of this debate. This was the first time Harris and Trump met. Harris kept smiling the whole time. They debated on multiple topics including the economy, immigration, tax rates, abortion, etc.
Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the final weeks of the campaign, according to a national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College on September 8. The poll showed Trump leading Harris by one point, 48% to 47%. However, with the gap within the three-point margin of error, either candidate has a chance of winning.
Showdown
Vice President Harris was the first to speak. She said she has a plan to help American families who are worried about the economy and the cost of living. "I believe in the ambitions, aspirations and dreams of the American people," she said. She touted her plan to build an "opportunity economy," including proposals to make housing more affordable and expand child tax credits. Harris also slammed former President Trump's proposals, such as tax cuts for corporations, saying they would hurt the interests of middle-class American families.
Trump responded by reiterating that he would impose tariffs on other countries. Trump used his first speaking opportunity to answer a question about the economy with a familiar attack on immigration, accusing immigrants from "mental hospitals" of being criminals who take jobs from African Americans and others. Trump also said Harris had no plan either and that she copied Biden's plan.
On the issue of tariffs, Harris said Trump's proposal to impose a blanket tariff of up to 20% on all imported goods is "a tax on the everyday goods you rely on to survive." Harris said Trump "started a trade war."
When talking about immigration, Harris said that due to Trump's lobbying of the Republican Party, the bipartisan immigration bill was rejected in Congress. She said: "Our previous president preferred to solve problems rather than raise problems." Trump was also asked how he would deport undocumented immigrants. In response to Trump's claim that immigrants eat dog meat, Harris also responded, "That's why in this election, I have the support of 200 Republicans who have worked with President Bush, Mitt Romney and John McCain, including former Vice President Dick Cheney and Congressman Liz Cheney."
Harris then said that the Biden administration must "clean up the mess" left by Trump four years after he took office. She accused Trump of plunging the United States into "the worst unemployment problem since the Great Depression," "the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War," and "the worst public health epidemic in a century." Mainstream economists believe that her economic plan will promote economic growth, while Trump's economic plan will shrink the economy.
Trump said his tariff plan would cost "billions and hundreds of billions of dollars." He said there was "no inflation, virtually no inflation" while he was president. Trump said the Biden administration had reversed that progress. "These people in our country are absolutely going to die because of what they've done. They've destroyed the economy."
The debate then turned to abortion. Harris said the government and Trump should not be telling women what to do with their bodies. If elected, Trump will sign a national abortion ban. Trump said last month that he would not support a referendum in his home state of Florida to expand abortion rights. "Right now, I believe in exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother... Now the states are voting on this... Every state is voting. It's a vote of the people. It's no longer tied to the federal government now," Trump said.
Trump criticized the Biden administration's criminal record. Harris responded that Trump also has legal problems. She said: "I think this is ridiculous because this comes from a person who has been indicted for national security crimes, economic crimes, election interference crimes, and was convicted of sexual assault. His next court appearance is in November to accept his criminal sentence." Trump responded that he was being politically persecuted and called the charges against him a "false case." Trump added: "They said bad things about me, and I may have suffered a serious head injury because of it."
contrast
Harris, 59, won the Democratic nomination after Biden ended his re-election campaign. She is a former U.S. senator, California attorney general and district attorney, and the first woman and person of color to serve as vice president. If she wins, she will become the first woman to serve as president in the 248-year history of the United States. Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz is her running mate.
Harris is expected to basically follow Biden's foreign policy on key issues. She pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, but also took a tough stance against Hamas. However, there is also a view that she is more likely to abandon Biden's current moderate and centrist approach and embrace or even promote the radical Democratic Party line of the Obama era.
Harris has laid out an economic plan that includes proposals to cut taxes for most Americans. She also proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Her positions on climate and energy are also similar to Biden, who has made combating climate change a top priority.
Harris promised to increase the child tax credit by $6,000 for newborns; provide a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers; increase the tax deduction for new small businesses tenfold to $50,000; and maintain the income tax deduction policy for families with incomes below $400,000.
Trump, 78, survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in July. His approval ratings skyrocketed, and he won the Republican presidential nomination a few days after the assassination. This is his third run for president.
He is involved in four criminal cases and has been indicted for his actions during his tenure from 2017 to 2021. He believes that this is a political attack on him and his supporters. In May this year, he became the first former US president to be convicted and is still facing charges in the United States and Georgia for trying to disrupt the 2020 election. He is also the first president to be impeached twice. Ohio US Senator JD Vance is his running mate. Trump is also one of the oldest candidates in the US presidential candidate. If he wins, he will become the second oldest president of the United States after Biden.
On foreign policy, Trump has vowed to fundamentally change the U.S. relationship with NATO and resolve the war in Ukraine. He has made immigration a top issue in his domestic campaign, including promising mass deportations. He has also vowed to undo much of what the Biden administration has done to combat climate change. Meanwhile, Trump has faced criticism, including from fellow Republicans, for personal attacks, including racial ones, against Harris.
Trump has pledged to make permanent the tax cuts he pushed through during his 2017 presidency, which disproportionately benefit the wealthiest households and big businesses and would otherwise expire in 2025; further cut the corporate tax rate, from 21% to 20%, and to 15% for companies that make products in the United States; and impose higher tariffs on imports.
Influence
After Harris succeeded Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump's previous lead quickly reversed, and he even went on the defensive. However, a poll released by The New York Times and Siena College on September 8 local time showed that Trump's recent approval rating rebounded again, and he led Harris by a narrow margin of 48% to 47%. This is the first time in nearly a month that Trump has led Harris in a mainstream poll. The betting odds are also very close, with Trump's chances of winning reversed again, leading Harris by 52% and 51% respectively. Trump and Harris are basically on par in different swing states.
CICC believes that Harris has not significantly shaken Trump's votes at present, and her leading advantage may mainly come from mobilizing more support from Democrats, independent candidate voters and centrist voters. The ownership of Congress, especially the House of Representatives, will directly affect the promotion of fiscal and taxation-related policies. Currently, the Republican Party is still in the lead. In this context, the debate on September 11 is crucial. Judging from the experience of previous debates, especially the last one between Trump and Biden, this stalemate may directly affect the direction of the election.
From the current perspective, Harris's policy may support US bond interest rates and the US dollar, but will be unfavorable to US stocks; Trump's policy will be favorable to US stocks, cyclical products, and Bitcoin, but may intervene in the US dollar. In terms of market and asset impact, Harris's "lukewarm" and generally status quo policy also basically determines that the impact on the market is likely to be smaller than Trump's. His direct way of subsidizing residents through fiscal expansion will increase bond issuance in the short term and even bring about periodic demand inflation pressure, so it is unfavorable to bond assets and will support the US dollar; his tax increase policy is also not conducive to US stocks; bulk supply may continue to be restricted.
Under Trump's policies, the downward space for U.S. Treasury bond yields is constrained by inflationary policies; U.S. stocks are supported by tax cuts and are more favorable to cyclical products; the U.S. dollar may strengthen due to interest rate cuts and policies, unless administrative intervention promotes competitive depreciation; and bulk supply may increase.
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