The relationship between the Fed's interest rate cuts and the S&P over the past 40 years.
Interest rate cuts began in September 1984
From 11.5% to 5.875%
Interest rate cuts ended in January 1987
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts.
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Interest rate cuts began in May 1989
From 9.8125% to 3%
Interest rate cuts ended in February 1994
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts
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Interest rate cuts began in 1995
From 5.75% to 5.25%
Interest rate cuts ended in June 1999
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts
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Interest rate cuts began in January 2001
From 6.5% to 1%
Interest rate cuts ended in June 2004
US stocks retreated after the interest rate cuts
US stocks after the interest rate cuts ended Rising
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Rate cuts began in September 2007
From 5.25% to 0.25%
Rate cuts ended in December 2008
US stocks retreated after rate cuts
US stocks rose after rate cuts ended
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Rate cuts began in August 2019
From 2.5% to 0.25%
Ended in March 2022
US stocks rose for about half a year after rate cuts
US stocks retreated after the 2020 pandemic
The Fed accelerated the pace of rate cuts, and US stocks rose after the rate cuts ended.
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Based on the relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and the S&P over the past 40 years, do you think it is still a bull market now?
Every time a bull market starts, it ends with a rate cut, which can be as short as 1 year or as long as 5 years. When do you think the rate cuts will end in September 2024? That's when the real bull market starts.
