#降息周期

On September 22, 2024, the US dollar exchange rate fell, and the USDT OTC premium also rose to 6.94 RMB, which was a double blow to those who held USDT.
On the one hand, the US dollar depreciated, and on the other hand, the appreciation of assets made the money in hand even less valuable. This is the impact of the interest rate cut. The currency depreciated, and everyone was worried that the money in their hands would continue to shrink, so they invested their funds in the capital market to seek value preservation.
However, this is just the beginning. Before the Fed's interest rate cut cycle ends and the interest rate hike cycle begins, the depreciation of USDT may continue for more than a year.

$USDT

#今日数据有助于比特币突破65000阻力位

Today's data is closely related to the US macro-economy, mainly including economic indicators such as unemployment benefits, GDP growth, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The impact of the release of these data on the crypto market can be understood from the following aspects:
Unemployment benefits: If the actual data is higher than expected, it indicates that the US labor market is weak and may affect the Fed's decision to raise interest rates. Loose monetary policies (such as interest rate cuts or pauses in interest rate hikes) are generally good for the crypto market because low interest rates make risky assets more attractive.

GDP growth: This is an important indicator of economic health. If the actual growth rate meets or exceeds expectations (3%), the market may believe that economic growth is robust, which helps to support confidence in financial markets. A robust economic environment has a neutral or positive impact on crypto assets.

PCE price index: This is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. If inflation is mild (in line with expectations or lower than the expected 2.8%), it means that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates significantly, which is good for the cryptocurrency market, and investors may increase their holdings in inflation-resistant assets such as Bitcoin.

If the data is robust and the inflation and unemployment data are in line with or lower than expectations, it may support the bullish sentiment in the crypto market in the short term.

If the data is good, be careful of downward pinning to induce shorting and then bursting! #降息周期 #降息预测 #降息期待 $BTC

The relationship between the Fed's interest rate cuts and the S&P over the past 40 years.

Interest rate cuts began in September 1984
From 11.5% to 5.875%
Interest rate cuts ended in January 1987
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts.
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Interest rate cuts began in May 1989
From 9.8125% to 3%
Interest rate cuts ended in February 1994
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts
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Interest rate cuts began in 1995
From 5.75% to 5.25%
Interest rate cuts ended in June 1999
US stocks rose after the interest rate cuts
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Interest rate cuts began in January 2001
From 6.5% to 1%
Interest rate cuts ended in June 2004
US stocks retreated after the interest rate cuts
US stocks after the interest rate cuts ended Rising
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Rate cuts began in September 2007
From 5.25% to 0.25%
Rate cuts ended in December 2008
US stocks retreated after rate cuts
US stocks rose after rate cuts ended
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Rate cuts began in August 2019
From 2.5% to 0.25%
Ended in March 2022
US stocks rose for about half a year after rate cuts
US stocks retreated after the 2020 pandemic
The Fed accelerated the pace of rate cuts, and US stocks rose after the rate cuts ended.
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Based on the relationship between the Fed's rate cuts and the S&P over the past 40 years, do you think it is still a bull market now?
Every time a bull market starts, it ends with a rate cut, which can be as short as 1 year or as long as 5 years. When do you think the rate cuts will end in September 2024? That's when the real bull market starts.
$BTC #降息一定会涨吗 #美联储何时降息？ #降息周期