Major macroeconomic events from August 19 to August 23: Powell’s speech became the only focus at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting!

Since there are fewer major macro events next week, the current focus is on Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on August 23. The following events are arranged in order of importance.

August 23

Powell speaks on economic outlook at Jackson Hole symposium

Data weight: ★★★★★
Data content: simultaneous interpretation of the speech, which will be updated with the live broadcast.
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
In Powell's speech, he conveyed his judgment and expectations on the current and future US economy, which will be used by the market to make certain expectations based on future interest rate decisions, and will most likely affect a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut in September. Judging from Powell's situation, affirmation of the US economy is inevitable, and risks will also be pointed out, so a 25 basis point rate cut will basically not be broken for the time being.

There is a small probability of hawkish remarks, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the future.

August 22

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 17 (10,000 people) was 22.7% before and 23.1% expected

As a regular weekly data, this data will basically not cause much fluctuation in the market unless there are large fluctuations in the data.

Since the data previously triggered employment risks, which led the market to anticipate a possible US economic recession, I personally expect that the data will not fluctuate too much in the near future, and last week the data returned to the lowest value since July. However, the data still has a certain reference value for studying and judging the real-time situation of the US job market.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

The data will be released at 2 a.m., so there is basically no need to pay attention to it. There will be no interest rate decision in this period.

Small science:
In a calendar year, policy-setting meetings are held in January, March, May, June, July, September, November and December, while there are no interest rate decisions in August and October.

The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 49.6 before and expected to be 49.8
The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55 before and expected to be 54

Data time: 21:45

This set of data depends on personal preference. It is one of the data used to measure the manufacturing and service industries in the United States. This data basically will not bring too much volatility to the risk market.
At the same time, the data for this period are preliminary values ​​and forward-looking data, and the final values ​​will be announced later for data reference.

August 21

U.S. EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) for the week ending August 16, the previous value was 1.357 million barrels,

This data was previously paid attention to because it involves inflation issues. Currently, inflation in the United States has gradually slowed down. At the same time, for interest rates, inflation is no longer the main narrative, so this data is only for reference and is not the focus of attention.

Summarize:

The focus of this week is actually only Powell's speech. I personally think that there is not much room for expectations for Powell's speech. A rate cut in September is nominally very likely, so Powell's speech may at most be dovish or pessimistic about the US economy, which will lead to a 50 basis point increase in the September rate cut.

However, it seems unlikely that Powell will take the initiative to sing the praises of the US economic risks. Even if he is dovish, he cannot increase the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut. Therefore, the market has already hyped up the expectation of a September rate cut, and this narrative cannot trigger more bullish sentiment.

Unless there is a super hawkish statement that there will be no interest rate cut in September, this will cause risk markets to fluctuate, but downward, which is not what anyone wants to see.

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