This morning I listened to Musk's speech to Trump. When I entered, there were about 1.33 million people in the audience. The whole audience could only hear Trump talking. Musk couldn't get a word in. He was just a supporting actor and could only say "yeah". Someone on the Internet summarized this space. I posted the picture hahaha

Hot conferences have always been the focus of attention of the "lottery number" in the circle. Needless to say, this "yeah" has long been made into a dog coin on Sol. I took a glance and saw that it tripled in the time I saw it, and then it fell all the way down. It's meaningless. If you don't charge enough, you won't make much money, and if you charge too much, you will lose all your principal.

One-stop service of riding the trend + pumping the price + selling. If you are not the organizer, you can only take over the price. According to statistics from newtoneinsteinx, there are more than 1.7 million tokens launched on Pump.fun, and only 0.002% remain above 1 million. Don't think you are the child of destiny.

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Another thing, AH said in his recent blog that the alt season will start, and he estimated that the nodes will reach 70K for Bitcoin and 4K for Ethereum. His basis is "flooding", I will post his original text:

Why has the crypto risk market been moving sideways and then down since April this year? Most tax revenues occur in April, which necessarily leads to lower borrowing by the Treasury. We can observe this from the number of Treasury bills issued from April to June.

Liquidity is being drained from the system by the net reduction in outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the government as a whole borrows more, the net reduction in cash-like instruments provided by the Treasury drains liquidity from the market. As a result, cash remains trapped on the Fed's balance sheet (RRP) and is unable to drive financial asset prices higher.

This chart of Bitcoin (gold) vs. RRP (white) clearly shows that from January to April, when Treasuries were net issuing, RRP fell and Bitcoin rose. From April to July, when Treasuries were net exiting the market, RRP rose and Bitcoin moved sideways, with a few big dips in between. I stopped on July 1 because I wanted to show the interaction before USDJPY rose from 162 to 142, which led to a broad sell-off in risk assets.

Therefore, according to Yellen, net issuance of U.S. Treasury bills will reach $301 billion between now and the end of the year. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly reverse the sell-off caused by the appreciation of the yen. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.

When does the cottage season come?

Altcoins are cryptocurrencies with higher alpha earnings. But during this cycle, Bitcoin and now Ethereum have seen structural buying in the form of net inflows into ETFs.

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have corrected since April, they have escaped the carnage experienced by the shitcoin market.

Only after Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively, will altcoins return. Solana will also climb above $250, but given the relative market cap, the wealth effect of a Solana surge on the entire cryptocurrency market will be nowhere near as strong as that of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

A year-end rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum fueled by USD liquidity will lay a solid foundation for the return of the sexy shitcoin party.

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I think this kind of macroeconomic prediction is not particularly meaningful in nature. It is true that "flooding" has a great promoting effect on any crypto market, but all judgments are based on a presupposition. It's just that AH thinks Harris needs to win and make the stock market price higher to gain wider support, which is to cut interest rates.

Actually, Trump's approval rating is not that high now. A few days ago, Harris's approval rating exceeded Trump's by 1%, which has eliminated the assassination effect.

I personally feel that it has little to do with Harris now. It mainly depends on who is more supportive of Trump or against Trump. Trump also talked about economic issues in this space. Anyway, it all comes down to the current policies not working, and I will do this and that when I take office. It's just the usual nonsense used by politicians.

The head follows the buttocks. Now it is certain that ETFs have promoted a large number of BTC purchases. If you look at this matter carefully, the friends of the rich are all rich people. When a rich person buys and talks to his friends, more rich people will follow suit.

Secondly, the crypto community has become an important political force in the U.S. presidential election. Whether it is really rare or just a bluff, they have to give everyone a little sweetness to try.

Finally, don’t take the “copycat season” too seriously. The top cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin. When a large amount of funds enter the market, they will always flow into other projects.

Many people said to me, "Akong, if you think this is useless, then why bother chatting about it?" I can't help it. Everyone likes to watch it, and it can be regarded as a way to cheer everyone up.

This is the difference between playing A-shares and cryptocurrencies. Now I don’t have the confidence to be bullish on A-shares, but I have been bullish on BTC for 132 years. Hahahaha

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1. Sun Yuchen's involvement in WBTC triggered a crisis of trust. It was WBTC company BitGo that first said it would start a joint venture with BiT Global, but the latter has a strategic partnership with Sun Yuchen. After the news came out, MakerDao voted overnight to reduce the size of WBTC collateral.

Even though Sun Yuchen has clarified, it is useless. All the bad things he did in the past will backfire. Big money will not believe Sun Yuchen. Only those retail investors still hold the view that "he has made so much money, he must do something for the industry, right?" Sorry, this is the reality. His ability is to grab other people's cake, not to make the cake bigger.

2. Last week, Starknet changed its CEO again. Narratives, narratives, narratives are useless. We must come up with a project to continue playing. Now Starknet's TVL has dropped to 26, and Arb is still firmly in the first place.

I don’t know if you have noticed a problem. ZK system has no TVL after the airdrop. On the contrary, Arb continues to stay in the first place. The reason is that the top DeFi on Ethereum cannot enter. The ZK system is too restrictive. Technology is different from business. The more perfect it is, the better. On the contrary, the easier it is to implement, the better.

I have discussed this topic in "My View on zkSync: Talking about the Protocol War 40 Years Ago". When the Internet protocol war was going on, IP was far inferior to the next-door protocol, but IP eventually won.

3. CME Fed Observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 49.5%. The interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the impact on the market is divided into two parts. The first part is the emotional impact, which has been reflected in the market, and the other part is the actual impact, which is to see how much the rate will be cut next.

4. Canadian cryptocurrency trading platform ezBtc and its founder misappropriated $9.5 million of customer funds for gambling. I emphasize again, don’t trust small platforms, don’t trust small platforms! When you deposit tokens into an exchange, you deposit them into the exchange’s hot wallet. At this time, your coins no longer belong to you.

Theoretically, your tokens are only kept in your wallet, but because the quality of crypto participants is generally low, cold wallets, transfers often result in lost coins and theft. Therefore, it is better to put small and medium-sized assets in top exchanges at this stage. In the future, you will become more proficient and keep your money yourself.

Decentralization is great, but it is not suitable for fools. Fools are suitable for centralization, and they need a nanny to cover the bottom. Decentralization is all about yourself, and fools will be eliminated.

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Let me stop here. The temperature has changed a lot in the past two days. I feel a little fuzzy and plan to rest early. The market is just like this. Don't keep staring at the market if you have nothing to do. It doesn't make much sense.

If you go out for a walk more often, your mind may be clearer.