Let me tell you something interesting.

During the National Day holiday, something very important happened: the US non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations. The expectation was 150,000, but the actual number was 250,000. What does this mean? It means that the Federal Reserve underestimated the economic activity, and the 50 basis point reduction at the beginning seemed hasty.

After the news came out, everyone's expectations for future interest rate cuts were lowered, and the direct impact was that the US dollar began to rebound. Logically, this would induce assets to flow back to the United States, but it happened that the A-share market was so red, which became a "shallow negative" and everyone was not panicked at all.

As a result, on October 8, the market opened high and closed low, and was pushed down from the daily limit to the 5-day line. After a lot of people were buried in the market, the wind direction changed again, and various conspiracy theories emerged.

The most popular saying in the market is that "the Federal Reserve is killing the whole world." Through the weapon of interest rates, it staged a big drama for everyone, harvesting the world's leeks, and defeating the global capital market. Bitcoin was also forced to plummet to 60K.

This statement has some truth, but to be honest, it doesn't make much sense for people like us. The key is the principal and the rate of return.

When the interest rate cuts were implemented, many people advocated that US bonds were a good place to invest. As a result, the US dollar rebounded and the US bond yield "surged" by 0.3% in half a month. This means that the yield on US bonds bought in September is now -7%, but the question is, even if this 7% is a positive number, how much use will it have on us?

But it is different for Wall Street institutions. 7% of 10 billion is 700 million, which means they can earn 700 million in half a month. The zero-sum game market likes to promote how to make hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in a short period of time, like Soros, LTCM, and more Wall Street institutions.

But they have made sufficient preparations, using huge amounts of capital to try to earn a 10% or 20% return. They can get the news in advance, make arrangements in advance, and complete a "harvest". Who are they harvesting? They are the retail investors who are also active in the gaming market.

If we extend the timeline, over the past few decades, one after another, the dealers who are good at gambling have come on stage, playing tricks and politics, but after poking big holes in the world's finance, they all perished together.

If the bankers are like this, what about the retail investors? Every time they try to earn a 20% return, they need to plan and lay out their plans, waiting for the right time, place and people to swing the sickle; while the retail investors who try to earn a 20% return every time, holding their pitiful principal, are like cats, jumping up and down as directed by the public opinion stick.

Moreover, others make hundreds of millions with one move, while I only make hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands with one move, and I still risk huge information disparity. Don’t I deserve it?

Of course, the market continues to be full of "compound interest", that is, although I earn 20% today, but I earn 20% every day, won't I get a return of 600%+ in a year? Even the banker will not dream of this kind of dream, and even the retail investors who don't even know what they are buying are obviously not worthy of it.

Take the Fed's market manipulation for example. A-shares are indeed suspected of being driven up by foreign investors taking advantage of the holidays to raise prices, but this is not the main impact. If the impact was significant, why didn't they raise prices earlier?

Although there is a lot of foreign capital, it is not enough to influence a market approaching one trillion dollars. It can only be a manipulation to fan the flames. If the market does not buy it, the bank will have to accept the loss.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve manipulated interest rates, saying that it was a trick on us. In the past, many people said that if the US dollar interest rate fell, the domestic interest rate could follow suit, but this is not the case.

You all know the overall economic environment without me having to explain that we urgently need to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. But if the US dollar continues to raise interest rates, if we cut interest rates, the exchange rate will get out of control, and if we are not careful it could go to 8 or 9.

So we are just waiting, waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and before ensuring a relatively stable exchange rate, cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Some people may say that the Fed is falsifying data to fool us and suppress us. This is actually unlikely, because it is common for non-farm data to adjust back and forth. I talked about this in the article (rate cut!) that the ultimate goal of the Fed is to protect the US economy, not to protect Wall Street.

Officials want political bargaining chips, followed by monetary wealth. Many people see Wall Street's immediate gains, so they think the two are in cahoots. If they really were pissing in the same pot, Powell would not jump back and forth, and the Fed would not even raise interest rates. How good would it be to continue QE? Wall Street will only smile crookedly under QE.

Before each interest rate meeting, Powell's Tai Chi is to test the market's reaction (that is, to test Wall Street's reaction). He wants to try his best to ensure that each policy adjustment will not cause more uncontrollable factors, at least to release the "bad news in advance." This is something everyone needs to understand.

However, conspiracy theories are always conspiracies, and there will be a gaming market. Human technological progress will not stop because of the policies of any country, it will only slow down or speed up. This is an irreversible trend of the positive and market. This is also something that everyone needs to understand.

Even if we take a step back, even if all these conspiracy theories are true, the impact of major events on the market is only ±20%. The "bank makers" make 20% of the money, and retail investors lose 20% of their capital. Again, even if retail investors make 20%, what can they change?

The huge money he made is 10 times what Buffett made in 8 years from buying a large position in Apple in 2016, and 4 times what he made in 1 year from buying a large position in Bitcoin last year.

Soros, the renowned representative of "bankers", probably has never made 10 times the money in his entire life. Even the top 1 winner of the zero-sum game will not surpass Buffett.

This is the only way to make a lot of money. Waiting for an undervalued and most promising project in the stock market for five years, 200,000 yuan will become 2 million yuan. But we are too lucky, we just need to wait for Bitcoin to be at a low price for one or two years.

This is the essence of investing.

It sounds easy, but to do it, you must have enough knowledge. You must know what capital and institutions want to do, and how we can make money.

I often hear people say that when investing, one must control desires and human nature. This is bullshit. Human nature cannot be controlled, and desires cannot be hindered.

The only thing I’m afraid of is having huge desires but only narrow vision and cognition.