All victories come from the persistence of faith. Believe in the power of belief. We will never be disappointed. Welcome to follow Starry Sky Value Investment. There must always be someone who looks up at the stars.

A few days ago, Multicoin aroused the anger of the masses when talking about Ethereum in an interview.

This is also human nature. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has almost reached its historical low of 0.43; while SOL/ETH has risen by 300% in the past year.

When he gets emotional, he wants to take all the blame, from the Ethereum Foundation's excessive spending to Vitalik's disregard for ETH's life and death in order to pick up girls, saying that Ethereum has never disappointed anyone when it comes to disappointment.

I have explained this reason many times, but no one listens. The lack of price increase is the original sin.

But the reality is that if your friends are cursing because the price "didn't go up", you will most likely lose money whether you buy Ethereum or not.

I have already talked a lot about the long-term value and logic in "ETH or Sol?" and "Solana cannot beat Ethereum, but..." Today I will not talk about the long-term, but the present.

Have you ever thought about what kind of return you want to get in this market? How can you get such a result with the highest probability? I guess many people have not thought about it.

Let’s do some fortune telling first. Most people build Ethereum positions during these five time points: before August 5, 2021, before September 15, 2022, before April 12, 2023, before May 13, 2024, and before July 23, 2024.

These time nodes correspond to the London upgrade, Paris upgrade, Shanghai upgrade, Cancun upgrade and the formal approval of the Ethereum ETF by the SEC.

Big news? What's more interesting is that ETH fell after these major events. Even after a round of rise on August 5, 21, it fell sharply again. I think this is where the view that "Ethereum never disappoints" comes from.

What’s interesting is that during these time points, not only ETH, but even those who bought SoL, BTC, or other Altcoins all lost money, so the above sentence becomes “Crypto has never disappointed people in disappointment.”

Did you notice? Not rising is not a sin.

Take another look at this article "Investing is not about going to the market in a bull market", and you may have a different understanding.

Yes, Sol has risen a lot, dozens of times from the bottom of the bull market to now. However, for a project with a criminal record, how many people dared to build a position at that time?

But if you don’t build a position at that time, the peak of Sol is when it is at its hottest. If you buy it at the peak of 210U in this round, it will drop to 131U now, a drop of nearly 40%. Similarly, if you buy ETH at the peak of 2512U when it is at its hottest, the drop is also about 40%.

This is actually the current situation, and it is the most realistic thing. If you don't buy before the price goes up, no matter how you turn around, you will lose money. But if you choose to buy before the price goes up, you must endure a long period of no increase. Many people think the opposite, and they want to buy and the price will go up. Sometimes I don't quite understand why retail investors dare to have such thoughts?

The crypto market is like a party without tickets or programs. You and I are not the organizers, but just the audience who come after hearing the news.

An evening party usually only has one or two climaxes, and the wonderful programs are all at these times. The rest of the programs and the rest of the time are boring.

Only by participating in the whole process can we not miss the climax of the party, because we don’t have the program and we are not the organizer.

However, some audience members feel that the time waiting for the climax is too boring, so they leave the venue during the middle of the show. In the end, they often rush back in after the climax.

At this time, I comfort myself by saying that there will be the next climax, but then I am forced to go through a long period of boredom, and then I leave smartly. This cycle repeats itself, but I never get to see a wonderful show.

Until the end of the party, some people will say that it was a wonderful party and it was worth the wait; some people will say that it was a rubbish party and it was full of scams.

Sadness and joy cannot be connected, that’s all.

The bull market is already halfway through, and we have gained nothing in the past. We should stop and think. We should not blame Ethereum for the problem, but think about whether there is something wrong with our own cognition?