Macroeconomic data minutes from August 12 to August 16: The key data CPI may cause concerns in the risk market!
Next week we will usher in a new round of key economic data week. The most important data this week is the CPI data, which is nominally used to measure the US inflation index.
But with expectations of a rate cut in September becoming more likely, the CPI data could cause more turbulence.
In the recent 10 trading days of fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, the S&P volatility reached an average of about 2%, which is the highest volatility since November 2022. Wall Street has already made certain expectations for the CPI. If the data changes significantly from expectations, it may trigger greater fluctuations in the U.S. stock market.
Data Milestones:
August 12:
US New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast in July
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: previous value 3.02%, no expected value,
Data time: 23:00
Data impact:
The data is compiled and provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It has a low weight in economic data, but as it is forward-looking data for CPI, it has a certain reference value and a weak impact on the market.
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August 13:
U.S. PPI annual rate in July/U.S. PPI monthly rate in July
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Annual rate: 2.6% expected: 2.3% Monthly rate: previous value: 0.2% expected: 0.2%
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The PPI data is one of the leading data for measuring inflation and has a certain degree of foresight in inflation data. At the same time, the high or low PPI data will have more impact on corporate profits, the US economy, employee salaries and the job market.
August 14:
U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate/U.S. July seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate
Data weight: ★★★★★
Data content: Annual rate: previous value 3% expected 3% Monthly rate: previous value -0.1% expected 0.2%
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
CPI is the nominal inflation data of the US economy and is the most intuitive data for judging inflation. It is easier to understand and widely used as inflation data. However, PCE is more professional and accurate in terms of data. At the same time, PCE is also the inflation data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about.
Although the weight of CPI data is not as high as that of PCE, it can still bring greater volatility and impact to the risk market in the current environment.
Wall Street's expectation for this period of data is that short-term inflation will rebound slightly, the annual rate will remain unchanged, and inflation will remain stable and under effective control. However, once the data shows a large change from expectations, the monthly rate is too high or too low, or the annual rate fluctuates, it will have a certain impact on the risk market's assessment of the current US economy.
If the value is too high, it means that inflation will rebound rapidly in the short term and the inflationary pressure will be relatively high, which will affect the probability and extent of the interest rate cut in September.
If the value is too low, it proves that consumer willingness is declining rapidly, which will bring more negative emotions to the US economic recession.
August 15:
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 10 (10,000 people),
Data impact: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 23.3 Expected 23.6
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
As short-term employment market data updated weekly, its weight and impact on risk markets are relatively small, but there have been large numerical changes recently. Combined with the emergence of theories of a U.S. economic recession, if there are large numerical changes again in the short term, it will have a direct impact on interest rate cuts and the frequency of interest rate cuts, and even whether the U.S. will experience a recession or not.
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U.S. retail sales monthly rate in July
Data weight: ★★★★
Data content: Previous value 0.00% Expected 0.4%
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The monthly retail rate is used to measure the changes in consumers' spending power in the current economy. Consumption data accounts for 70% of the US GDP, so retail data is one of the important data used to judge the health of the US economy. At the same time, as data released after the CPI is released, this data can also provide a certain degree of retrospective analysis of the CPI inflation data.
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U.S. import price index monthly rate in July
Data weight:★★
Data content: Previous value 0.00% Expected -0.10%
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
This data is the import price data of the month provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor. The level of import prices will be directly transmitted to enterprises, production chains, and commodities, and then to the market, which will have a certain impact on inflation and other data. However, this data has little impact on the risk market and is observational data.
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U.S. industrial output monthly rate in July
Data weight: ★★
Data content: Previous value 0.6% Data expected -0.3%
Data time: 21:15
Data impact:
The main industrial data for the United States in July provided by the Federal Reserve covers manufacturing, mining and public utilities, and is an overall measure of the rise and fall index of the U.S. industrial system. However, the industrial system currently accounts for a small proportion of the U.S. economy, and the data has a weak impact on the U.S. economy and risk markets.
August 16:
U.S. one-year inflation forecast for August
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 2.9% Expected 2.9%
Data time: 22:00
Data impact:
The University of Michigan, which the Federal Reserve relies on, provides surveys and statistics, and collects samples and surveys from the public to conduct public opinion statistics on future inflation data in the United States. It has a weak impact on the risk market, but can serve as an important reference data for US inflation.
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The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 66.4 Expected 66.9
Data time: 22:00
Data impact:
The data is also provided by the University of Michigan, which collects samples and conducts surveys from the public to derive residents' views on the rise and fall of consumer confidence. At the same time, this consumer confidence can be used to predict US economic and inflation data.
Summarize:
The key lies in the CPI data. If the CPI data is stable, other data can be used as reference data with less impact on the market. However, if the CPI data shows large fluctuations and surprises, other data may aggravate the impact of the CPI abnormality.
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