It's another day of wasting time. The trading volume was 610 billion, the median fell by 0.13%, and foreign investment bought 1.1 billion. These are all data similar to random fluctuations and glitches, which are meaningless to the development of trends and the evolution of market conditions.
Of course, we can’t say that these days are completely wasted. Last month, we got used to the market below 3,000 points, and this month, we are getting used to the market below 2,900 points. In the past, I called the market below 3,000 points “underwater”, and the market rising back to 3,000 points “onshore”. Now we are spending more and more time underwater, but we can’t say we are suffocating, because the highly adaptable retail investors have evolved to breathe with gills, and are planning a long-term fecal war.
Today I saw a topic being discussed on Jisilu, which said that the national team had bought so much, but why the market was still falling.
I have summarized this before. One is the continuous redemption of public active funds, with a scale of about 80 billion per month; the second is the continuous selling of foreign capital, with a cumulative net outflow this year, which is the first time in the past 9 years, especially in the last three months, when there was almost no buying; the third is that based on experience, retail investors are also cutting their losses and leaving the market, because stock investors and fund investors are closely related species with very similar habits. Historically, they have always advanced and retreated together. If fund investors run away, there is no reason why stock investors should not run away.
In addition, the national team's buying method has no intention of lifting the overall market. The purpose of their trading is to prevent the A-shares from taking a big plunge and shaking the financial industry. The authorities may feel that the current languid decline is quite appropriate, which will help to softly land various leverage risks.
It is worth mentioning that several hot concepts that were hyped before have all gone cold today. Education and training fell 5.5%, unmanned vehicles fell 3.2%, low-altitude economy fell 2.4%, and commercial aerospace fell 3.6%. I don’t know if there was an agreement, but those short-term funds withdrew today, and several popular stocks hit the limit down directly.
I don’t know when and how the current market situation will break out. Previously, everyone hoped that the Fed would cut interest rates and global easing would drive the A-share market to rebound. But after a few days of turmoil, I have come to understand that even if the Fed cuts interest rates, it will not be able to boost the A-share market.
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A big hot news today is that the media found out that a funeral home illegally sold more than 4,000 corpses. There are 75 suspects involved in the case. Each corpse was sold for about 10,000 yuan. After the buyers received the corpses, they dismembered them. The main purpose was to obtain the bones inside and process them into "allogeneic bones", which is a medical material specially used for patients with fracture healing and bone defect repair.
I searched and found that the main formal channel for "allogeneic bone" is through body donation, but our country burns more than 10 million bodies every year, and very few of them are willing to donate. As of last year, the total number of registered body donations nationwide was 6.65 million, with an increase of about 800,000 per year. Please note that these are voluntary registrations, and people will not die immediately after registering. The actual number of organ donations is 5,000-6,000 per year, less than one in a thousand.
Therefore, the source of bones is insufficient, and the medical market is in short supply, so there is this business of stealing bones from corpses.
At first glance, this news is particularly shocking, and it seems to break the normal worldview and moral bottom line. But when I list these figures, do you think this is a neglected social problem? So many valuable bodies are burned in vain, which is a pity. Many people who died abnormally have usable corneas, bones, and some organs, while on the other hand, we have a large number of patients waiting in line for donated organs to save their lives.
It would be great if the dead could make some contributions to the living. Of course, illegal sales are definitely not allowed, but the system should be used to encourage people to donate according to the law. For example, if the person who signed the voluntary donation agreement and his or her family have implant needs, they can be given priority in the queue. Another example is that the state can provide some subsidies to encourage the donation of bodies, similar to the nutrition fee for blood donation.
I've gone off topic a bit, this matter is actually related to A-share listed companies. Aojing Medical and Zhenghai Bio both have artificial bone synthesis businesses. In addition, companies such as Chunli Medical, Kellytech, and Weigao Orthopedics also have bone injury repair businesses.
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1. Moutai's revenue increased by 17.76% in the first half of the year, and its profit increased by 15.88%. The company proposed that the cash dividends to be distributed each year in the next three years should not be less than 75% of the net profit. In the past, it was about half every year, and this time the dividend ratio was increased, the purpose is also to give shareholders confidence. If you ask me, this dividend ratio should have been raised a long time ago. The revenue of a company like Moutai is very stable, because the Feitian is sold as much as it produces, and the company will not invest a lot of money in R&D or marketing. Let alone 75% of the annual profit, 95% is also acceptable.
2. I saw data on the migration of wealthy people in 2024. The country with the most inflows is the UAE. I guess they all went to Dubai, where taxes are low and there are all kinds of freedoms. The second place is the United States, followed by Singapore, Canada, Australia, Italy, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal, and Japan. In the list of outflows, Taiwan ranks 8th in the world, Russia 5th, South Korea 4th, and India 3rd. What surprised me was that the United Kingdom ranked 2nd. I can't figure out the reason. Isn't the United Kingdom a target for many people to immigrate to? The first reaction may be that the taxes on the rich there are high?
3. The strict investigation of treasury bond transactions continues to advance. It is said that several rural commercial banks in Jiangsu are suspected of manipulating prices and transferring benefits in secondary market transactions. They should be found to be the counterparty of the central bank. The central bank is borrowing debt to smash the market, and someone on the other side uses his own seats to take the opportunity to buy at the bottom. I don’t care whether they have committed a crime or not. The only effective information from this incident is that the suppression of long positions in the bond market has escalated, and treasury bonds will definitely not rise in the short term.
4. Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume in July increased by 45% year-on-year and decreased by 23.8% month-on-month. As for housing prices, they fell by 6.86% year-on-year and 0.88% month-on-month. The data source is Centaline Property Agency.
5. BASF, a world-renowned vitamin manufacturer, said that a fire broke out in Ludwigshafen some days ago, affecting the production of some vitamin A, vitamin E, and carotenoids. It may be forced to cut off supply. This news stimulated a surge in the vitamin sector of A-shares.
That's all for tonight. Today's Olympic 400m final was very exciting. I suggest you watch the video. In the last 100 meters, an American runner fought back from fifth to first. His running posture was very awkward, and he looked like he was going to fall down at any moment. But in the end, he ran faster and faster in the final sprint. He was almost super acid-resistant. In the end, the champion ran 43.4 seconds, and the runner-up ran 43.44 seconds. They finished 0.04 seconds ahead. The two ran the second and third best results in the Olympics respectively. It was an absolutely high-level competition.
