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#茅台 Guizhou Moutai scalpers are running away.
The cause of this incident is that Moutai sells wine through lottery on its own e-commerce platform. As long as ordinary retail investors win the lottery, they can buy wine at the official retail price of 1499, which is more than 1,000 cheaper than the market price of 2600-2800. Therefore, many people who do not drink alcohol also apply for arbitrage. If they win, they will add a few hundred yuan to resell it.
Who will they sell it to? There is a group of scalpers who specialize in this. They add 400 to 500 yuan to the Moutai bought by these retail investors in the lottery, and then integrate them and sell them to e-commerce merchants. Of course, the price will be increased by a few hundred yuan, and the scalpers will definitely make money.
The reason why e-commerce merchants look for scalpers to purchase goods is of course profitable. Although the price has been increased twice in the middle, there is still room for profit compared to the market price. But this was in the past. The situation has changed recently. Due to weak demand, the market price of Moutai has continued to fall, from the previous 2700 to the latest 2400. In particular, the subsidized price reduction of a certain e-commerce platform has further compressed the profit margin.
So the e-commerce merchants and scalpers started to calculate against each other. Recently, there are 618 promotions. After placing an order, the delivery can be delayed for 3 weeks. After receiving the order, the store is not in a hurry to get the goods from the scalpers, and chooses to wait. As a result, the price of Moutai has been falling during these days of waiting, and the scalpers' profits are all falling.
Scalpers can't stand it anymore, and collectively call for e-commerce merchants to issue invoices. As for why issuing invoices is a means of revenge, I guess it has something to do with tax evasion. In addition, some scalpers took advantage of the 618 promotion and collected a large sum of money and ran away with the money. The customers who were fattened up in normal times were killed in a wave in these few days.
In the final analysis, it is caused by the decline in the overall consumption power of Chinese society. Since this year, all expensive goods have been difficult to sell, and the same is true for Moutai that costs more than 2,000 yuan a bottle.
The cause of this incident is that Moutai sells wine through lottery on its own e-commerce platform. As long as ordinary retail investors win the lottery, they can buy wine at the official retail price of 1499, which is more than 1,000 cheaper than the market price of 2600-2800. Therefore, many people who do not drink alcohol also apply for arbitrage. If they win, they will add a few hundred yuan to resell it.
Who will they sell it to? There is a group of scalpers who specialize in this. They add 400 to 500 yuan to the Moutai bought by these retail investors in the lottery, and then integrate them and sell them to e-commerce merchants. Of course, the price will be increased by a few hundred yuan, and the scalpers will definitely make money.
The reason why e-commerce merchants look for scalpers to purchase goods is of course profitable. Although the price has been increased twice in the middle, there is still room for profit compared to the market price. But this was in the past. The situation has changed recently. Due to weak demand, the market price of Moutai has continued to fall, from the previous 2700 to the latest 2400. In particular, the subsidized price reduction of a certain e-commerce platform has further compressed the profit margin.
So the e-commerce merchants and scalpers started to calculate against each other. Recently, there are 618 promotions. After placing an order, the delivery can be delayed for 3 weeks. After receiving the order, the store is not in a hurry to get the goods from the scalpers, and chooses to wait. As a result, the price of Moutai has been falling during these days of waiting, and the scalpers' profits are all falling.
Scalpers can't stand it anymore, and collectively call for e-commerce merchants to issue invoices. As for why issuing invoices is a means of revenge, I guess it has something to do with tax evasion. In addition, some scalpers took advantage of the 618 promotion and collected a large sum of money and ran away with the money. The customers who were fattened up in normal times were killed in a wave in these few days.
In the final analysis, it is caused by the decline in the overall consumption power of Chinese society. Since this year, all expensive goods have been difficult to sell, and the same is true for Moutai that costs more than 2,000 yuan a bottle.
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Some institutions say Moutai will be cut in half
Moutai, which has fallen for seven consecutive days, topped the list of hot stocks, with its share price hitting a 22-month low. In October 2022, it also fell below 1,400. At that time, the market had doubts about the third-quarter report. As a result, Moutai's performance shattered the doubts and the stock price rebounded quickly.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
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A corpse sells for 10,000
It's another day of wasting time. The trading volume was 610 billion, the median fell by 0.13%, and foreign investment bought 1.1 billion. These are all data similar to random fluctuations and glitches, which are meaningless to the development of trends and the evolution of market conditions.
Of course, we can’t say that these days are completely wasted. Last month, we got used to the market below 3,000 points, and this month, we are getting used to the market below 2,900 points. In the past, I called the market below 3,000 points “underwater”, and the market rising back to 3,000 points “onshore”. Now we are spending more and more time underwater, but we can’t say we are suffocating, because the highly adaptable retail investors have evolved to breathe with gills, and are planning a long-term fecal war.
Of course, we can’t say that these days are completely wasted. Last month, we got used to the market below 3,000 points, and this month, we are getting used to the market below 2,900 points. In the past, I called the market below 3,000 points “underwater”, and the market rising back to 3,000 points “onshore”. Now we are spending more and more time underwater, but we can’t say we are suffocating, because the highly adaptable retail investors have evolved to breathe with gills, and are planning a long-term fecal war.
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Sure enough,
Pick a few things to talk about.
First of all, the LPR announced early in the morning has not changed, and both the 1-year and 5-year terms remain the same.
The official explanation was that the current interest rate spread of banks is relatively small (about 1.5%), which is lower than the normal standard for bank profits. It will take some time to digest, but it did not say how long it will take. Bloomberg reported three consecutive reports of the decline in existing mortgage rates this month, each with more details than the last. This is definitely not made up. I believe it is true and I believe it will be implemented when the time is right.
But as I said last night, I think the communication mechanism between decision-makers and the market should be improved. Many of our financial media are now gradually losing the ability to link to the truth except for serving as loudspeakers. Many times some important information has to be exported and then disseminated domestically. This is not only unfair, but also not conducive to market stability.
First of all, the LPR announced early in the morning has not changed, and both the 1-year and 5-year terms remain the same.
The official explanation was that the current interest rate spread of banks is relatively small (about 1.5%), which is lower than the normal standard for bank profits. It will take some time to digest, but it did not say how long it will take. Bloomberg reported three consecutive reports of the decline in existing mortgage rates this month, each with more details than the last. This is definitely not made up. I believe it is true and I believe it will be implemented when the time is right.
But as I said last night, I think the communication mechanism between decision-makers and the market should be improved. Many of our financial media are now gradually losing the ability to link to the truth except for serving as loudspeakers. Many times some important information has to be exported and then disseminated domestically. This is not only unfair, but also not conducive to market stability.
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Escape
This weekend was relatively quiet, so there isn't a lot worth talking about.
1. The fact that the LPR did not fall in September was on Friday, which was not a big surprise. The People's Bank of China is not a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve, so there is no need for interest rates to follow. And usually when the interest rate is lowered, there will be some advance preparations, such as lowering the deposit rate first.
This weekend, there was news about a deposit rate cut. Some city banks cut their deposit rates, but this was not the start of a new round of rate cuts, but the end of the rate cut on July 25. Here is a brief explanation of the different paces of rate cuts for large and small banks. Usually, large banks cut first, followed by small banks.
1. The fact that the LPR did not fall in September was on Friday, which was not a big surprise. The People's Bank of China is not a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve, so there is no need for interest rates to follow. And usually when the interest rate is lowered, there will be some advance preparations, such as lowering the deposit rate first.
This weekend, there was news about a deposit rate cut. Some city banks cut their deposit rates, but this was not the start of a new round of rate cuts, but the end of the rate cut on July 25. Here is a brief explanation of the different paces of rate cuts for large and small banks. Usually, large banks cut first, followed by small banks.
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The price of rice wine has dropped, drinkers hurry to exchange pancakes for rice wine 😝#茅台 #美国大选前行情观察
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I can't handle the liquor anymore
Last night, many people left comments to criticize the women's basketball team. I went to check it out later and it was indeed a bit frustrating that they lost. They were 5 points ahead in the last minute of regular time but were tied. They were 3 points behind in the last minute of overtime and chose to play a 2-pointer inside, and then accepted the result of losing the game. I felt that the coach was slow to react and was not in good condition. As for the athletes, I think they all tried their best.
In fact, among the Chinese athletes yesterday, the one who really lost a lot of points was Qin Haiyang in the 100-meter breaststroke final. The 25-year-old new breaststroke champion won the 50-meter, 100-meter, and 200-meter championships at the World Championships last year and was highly expected. He ranked first in the first 50 meters of this final, but collapsed in the last 50 meters and dropped to seventh place, which puzzled the audience.
In fact, among the Chinese athletes yesterday, the one who really lost a lot of points was Qin Haiyang in the 100-meter breaststroke final. The 25-year-old new breaststroke champion won the 50-meter, 100-meter, and 200-meter championships at the World Championships last year and was highly expected. He ranked first in the first 50 meters of this final, but collapsed in the last 50 meters and dropped to seventh place, which puzzled the audience.
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hostility
I heard the good news when I woke up today. Pan Zhanle won the 100m freestyle final with a world record-breaking performance. This was really like a bolt from the blue. I woke up with a start.
Domestic media usually report good news but not bad news. Many netizens may not know what happened to the Chinese swimming team recently. A few months ago, an internal whistleblower revealed to European and American media that 23 Chinese swimmers tested positive for quelling. This incident caused a big uproar in the international swimming world. The doping testing organization WADA was criticized for shielding the Chinese team. They also suffered huge pressure. In order to avoid suspicion, they conducted very strict doping tests on Chinese athletes at the Paris Olympics. Gao Min had complained on Weibo before, saying that the Chinese athletes had to undergo seven tests a day, which seriously affected their rest.
Domestic media usually report good news but not bad news. Many netizens may not know what happened to the Chinese swimming team recently. A few months ago, an internal whistleblower revealed to European and American media that 23 Chinese swimmers tested positive for quelling. This incident caused a big uproar in the international swimming world. The doping testing organization WADA was criticized for shielding the Chinese team. They also suffered huge pressure. In order to avoid suspicion, they conducted very strict doping tests on Chinese athletes at the Paris Olympics. Gao Min had complained on Weibo before, saying that the Chinese athletes had to undergo seven tests a day, which seriously affected their rest.