Let's pay attention to the overall situation of the financial market. At present, there is a clear rhythm of trading interest rate cuts.
# US stocks S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 collectively rose, among which Russell 2000 and Dow Jones rose not low, following Nasdaq and S&P, indicating that the rise of US stocks is not only in the technology field.
Gold continued to rise,
The price of 10-year US Treasury bonds fell back at one point, and the yield fell slightly after reaching 4%.
Overall, there is already a taste of trading interest rate cuts, and the crypto market is following closely. # BTC price breakthrough is about to test 60,000,
The risk market is currently thriving, but how long can the expectation of interest rate cuts last?
In the Bloomberg report, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research believes that the current stock market is very unexpected because of an initial jobless claim. He did not mention the current expectation of trading interest rate cuts. The entire report did not give too many reasons to explain the rise of US stocks. The only data is from initial jobless claims, which dispelled the sense of crisis of economic recession.
Among the CME September rate cut probabilities, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has fallen back to 55%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 45%.
The data looks really good, but is it really that optimistic? Are there any US stock experts who pay attention to whether large US stock investment institutions and capital have begun to reduce their holdings? It is not clear whether such data can be queried.
