Recently, many people have asked what the market will do after the rebound.
In fact, if you observe carefully, you will find that the recent Bitcoin market is deeply tied to the U.S. stock market and the Nikkei.
Previously, the Nikkei fell, the U.S. stock market fell on a weekly basis, and Bitcoin also fell.
Last night, the U.S. stock market opened flat and fell, and closed with a large negative line. As a result, Bitcoin fell from 57,000 to 54,000.
This morning, the Japanese economy opened low and ended high, closing positively during the session, with a slight drop on the daily line. As a result, Bitcoin recovered its position from yesterday.
So if you want to judge the trend of Bitcoin in the short term recently, you have to pay attention to the trends of the US and Japanese stock markets in real time without any delay. Some domestic apps have delays.
This is obviously not suitable for everyone.
If Bitcoin is to follow the U.S. stock market in the long run, this is a very bad situation, but I don’t think that if there is no circuit breaker in the U.S. stock market and there is no economic crisis, the two will rise and fall in the same frequency for a long time.
The currency-stock peg will only be linked for a period of time in cases of major turmoil such as the "US stock market circuit breaker", and decoupling may take more than a month.
So tonight, if the U.S. stock market falls, Bitcoin will fall; if the U.S. stock market is flat, Bitcoin will rise slightly. If the U.S. stock market closes up more than 1%, Bitcoin may be able to reach 58,500.
We are not professionals in judging the stock market and it is very difficult, so we can only let nature take its course.
When buying at the bottom during a big drop, many people are more concerned about what they should buy?
You need to pay attention to the market and some short-term rebounds after declines. Sometimes you can see from the subtle details which ones you should choose.
First of all, it is not recommended to choose old currencies when buying at the bottom of a big drop, or those that have completely fallen and not risen before, and those that have fallen below historical lows. Such currencies are often weaker during a V-reversal. You can choose the strong ones first, and then wait for the strong ones to rise, and then run out a part of them to layout the weak ones, betting on stagflation, and make up for the rise.
Secondly, if you have small capital, don’t choose coins with too high market value other than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. The cost-effectiveness is really low and it is meaningless.
Finally, the characteristic of this round of bull market is that the strong will always be strong. The strongest is not AI, not DEPIN, not the Bitcoin sector, but the MEME and SOL sectors.
Ethereum and SOL.
I also have a position in Ethereum, but it was a relatively late investment and not a large one. I sold a part of it before the ETF was approved, and the other half was trapped. During this period of being trapped, I was able to pay more in-depth attention to why it was weak.
I think there are three main reasons:
1. The competitor SOL is too strong. It is not because the SOL chain itself is strong, but because the dealer behind SOL is very powerful. SOL focuses on being close to the people in this round, and mainly relies on local dogs to support the activity on the chain. In fact, it is not very high-end or popular, but it relies on pulling the price to attract users.
2. ETH’s last bull market surged, relying on decentralized finance (DEFI, staking, lending), and on-chain leverage. However, this round of regulation has forced it to cut off its arms to survive. While the high leverage on the chain generates profits, it also brings about huge bubbles, and it is difficult to save itself even if it cuts off its arms to survive.
Most importantly, ETH relied on continuous innovation before, but this time, except for the switch to POS, there is no innovation.
3. After the ETF is approved, there is a potential sell-off of Grayscale. If I were a banker, I would not pull up the market at this stage.
In the long run, choosing ETH may not necessarily be a bad choice. But in the short run, I will not invest in it in the early stage of ETF selling coins through Grayscale, because I know it is difficult to pull it up in the short run.
During the crash, the overall declines of Ethereum and SOL were actually similar, but before that, SOL had a higher increase while Ethereum had hardly increased.
During the decline, Ethereum's short-term rebound was weak, while SOL's rebound was strong.
Therefore, when the market fell for the second time on the evening of the 5th, the SOL sector was the one to choose if you wanted to buy at the bottom.
So how do you choose the long line?
The safest way is to choose strong stocks when the market plummets. After the SOL strong period and the ETF turnover period, you can switch to half position.
Some people ask why you are not optimistic about Ethereum.
In fact, it is not that we are pessimistic, but that we know the current situation. If a person falls twice in the same place, he should assess the situation carefully. It is wrong to stick to the same path until the end.
At a certain stage, inscriptions are powerful.
At another stage, the Ethereum sector was also strong.
Since September last year, the SOL sector has been strong.
Maybe we usually choose some currencies that have not risen much, hoping to make up for the rise, but when all currencies are really falling, we should choose currencies that have been strong in the recent period.
There is a saying in the stock market: don’t buy a decline, buy a big decline, don’t buy when the price falls below, buy when the price supports.
Ethereum still has a long way to go. After all, the ETF has been approved and can be invested in regularly, but it has repeatedly failed to perform as expected in the short term, so you can avoid it by buying at the bottom of a big drop.
There is also the issue of the dog-house nature behind SOL.
The banker behind SOL is Wall Street. Looking at the performance of the U.S. stock market over the past decade, you will know how tenacious these people are. They are always unexpected. The strong will always be strong, and the weak will not be touched.
In the last round of bull market, Ethereum sector, public chain and DEFI were all constrained now.
This round may be a bull market for SOL and SOL Chain Dog.
Of course, there may be changes over time, and there may be new projects, but one thing that is beyond doubt in this round is that you have to follow the dog market (Wall Street capital). The sooner you react, the sooner you may adapt to this round of the market.
Also, you definitely shouldn't chase the strength when there is a general rise. You need to plan and analyze ahead of time, make judgments and preparations, and think about what to copy when there are pullbacks and big drops. Some opportunities are fleeting. You have to rely on yourself for this, and no outsider can give you advice.
Note: The article is only personal opinion. Market analysis is risky and does not constitute an opinion.#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC走势分析
