If someone says it is a bear market in a bull market, they will generally be scolded... But what kind of bull market is this now? The "rule" of a four-year cycle is completely invalid.
First, the altcoins continue to fall.
Even if Bitcoin rises to 100,000 in the future, VC coins will still be similar to meme coins, rising once and then continuing to fall, because most projects are focused on shipments from the start-up, coin issuance, and listing. If you look closely at the token composition of most VC coins with low circulation and high fdv, you can easily find that most tokens are unlocked from March and begin to be released in half a year, that is, from September this year to next year, it is the time for large-scale shipments of avalanche disks, regardless of whether the market is bullish or not. There will definitely be people who will pull the market, and there will definitely be people who will speculate, but there will definitely be only one result.
Second, meme coins are starting to lose popularity
Now meme has become pure rolling, rolling on the chain, rolling tools, rolling physical strength, rolling running fast, this is actually a shouting order opening size, I don't like gambling, but if I don't gamble, I can't play anymore. The original meme evaluation system is meaningless in the current meme dominated by a wave. Overseas big V shouting orders is a very simple harvesting system, which will also fail.
Since I figured out that "it's hard for a golden dog to appear in the recent soil", I gave up participating in all memes - but I encourage those who have time and energy to use very small funds to play the early meme size, there are some rules, and use small to win big. But in fact, it is not much better than contracts, it is only suitable for playing time, don't believe in various wealth stories too much. I am especially not optimistic about the "value investment" of meme coins. Because meme depends on fomo, and the premise of fomo is that everyone has money earned from fomo, but when most people in this market have only a little principal, everyone will be more likely to wake up, so that the dealer can't pull it up. Some landmark events in the future are that some very strong memes cannot be pulled up after repeated washing, the giant whales take profits and stop losses, and retail investors slowly leave the market.
Third, the public chain has become a ghost town
There are a lot of infrastructure developments in this round, and they are mainly "for entrepreneurship in the bull market". In the past, each round was effective because there was less infrastructure and more new funds - because everyone came in to gamble, it was nothing more than betting on which one. But this round of new funds is less, and there are too many projects and too few users, which has led to serious problems. Not to mention hundreds of L2s, there are also various chain abstractions, etc. on the public chain. On the surface, it seems to be telling stories, but in fact it is still talking about business - because all stories cannot stand scrutiny. Your project has raised 500 million US dollars, is valued at 2 billion, and is listed at 5 billion US dollars. How many users do you have? How much value does it create every year? How much room is there in the future? What benefits may it bring to coin holders? Apply this question framework to each project and ask it, and you will have a clear idea.
There are also big problems in the competition among the top public chains, such as ETH and SOL. ETH believers say that decentralization is the future, but now there are no users and no new narratives. Are these problems serious? It depends on how you look at it. SOL says that I am really awesome, but all the awesome things on SOL are memes, and these memes are not really awesome, they are just a lot. And a group of new dealers on SOL are working hard to shout orders and make huge profits, but we cannot ignore that 93% of the transactions on the chain are not real user transactions - when it rises, everything is not a problem, when the leeks have already boarded, the problem will begin to become a problem. Fourth, there is no new capital entering. The total amount of stablecoins is the same as two years ago, and the market value of Bitcoin and altcoins is close to the highest point two years ago. The only difference is that the total market value of altcoins other than ETH is only half of that time - and the difference in the market is that all the funds are on Bitcoin, and people's fomo on altcoins is not moving.
Will things get better after the interest rate cut? Will a large amount of funds that earn interest on government bonds return to the stock market and overflow into the cryptocurrency market?
I don’t know much about macroeconomics, but common sense still looks at the wealth effect. If it can rise, money will come, and there is no strong correlation with whether the interest rate is lowered; if it can’t rise, the money will not dare to come, and if it comes, it will be cut off. If the above three problems in the cryptocurrency circle do not break the circle, do not come up with new narratives, and do not increase traffic, I just hope that more stupid and super money will come in for a wave of fomo, so that we can complete the ritual of this round of bull market. I think it’s a bit difficult. A high position of U + a small position of stocks + a small position of cryptocurrency assets, this combination may perform well in the past few months, but if you think about it carefully, it is actually a better choice to earn interest on stablecoins in the cryptocurrency circle. This is really sad.
One day in the cryptocurrency world is like one year in the real world. The industry is constantly changing, and the opportunities to make money are also constantly changing. There are small changes every day, and big changes every three months. Small retail investors who have little investment experience and can only buy randomly are experiencing the most difficult round of bull market. In the current market, predictions are coming and going, and you should feel the malice of the market. It is better to allocate a position that can be used for attack or defense. It feels good when it goes up, and it feels good when it goes down. To achieve this effect, you must control the total number of u and hold high-quality assets that can be held even if they fall.
It’s a bull market right now, and we share passwords almost every day.
I still say that, if you don’t know what to do in the bull market, click on my avatar and follow May, the bull market spot planning and contract password will be shared for free.
I need fans, you need references. It's better to pay attention than to guess. #降息 #meme币 #solana生态 $ETH $SOL
