The wolf has returned.
Finally got to change my name back.
*Edit 02/08* Todays unemployment reading (4.3%) triggered the Sahm recession rule as noted in this post and previously.
Another bad reading for the labour market today.
ISM manufactoring also came out lower.
Not the news the market wanted to see after rates were held at 5.5%.
S&P 500 and the small cap Russell 2000 both saw big losses based on this news, more so because the Fed held rates.
Tomorrow (12:30pm UTC+0) we have extremely high impact data, Non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate.
If the unemployment rate hits 4.2% tomorrow then the Sahm recession rule would be triggered, the market will react to this even if Powell showed little interest in the Sahm rule.
Non-Farm employment will also have a huge impact if it comes out lower.
There is a real concern about the labour market, bad news is now only bad news.
I think there is a strong possibility of unemployment coming out above 4.1% and the non farm employment numbers to be lower.
Would i trade around the news? definitely not.
The jobs data is already inflated by government hiring and seasonal/student jobs.
Like oil prices can be used to manipulate inflation data, jobs data can also be manipulated.
With the election so close and so much at stake i think anything is possible.
Should this data show further weakness in the labour market it will be bad for crypto, next week is a fairly quiet week for high impact US data, i expect the data from tomorrow will have a huge influence on the trend for the next week.
There are also geopolitical tensions which are always bad for Crypto price.
Hope for the best but be prepared for the worse, now more than ever.
Tomorrow is also Friday so we will see a lot of balancing after the news, things could get volatile as the data and its effect is priced in by large funds.
Trade safely.
Peace.
#TheWolfThatWins #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #MtGoxJulyRepayments #BTCâ
