The U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.
At the press conference after the meeting, Chairman Powell released dovish remarks about a possible rate cut in September, which led to a broad rise in US stocks, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.58%. However, Bitcoin has taken its own path, falling from a high of more than $66,000 after the press conference, and has fallen nearly 3% to $64,124 as of the time of reporting.
Powell noted that although the meeting had not yet decided on future actions, if economic data showed slowing inflation, a rate cut could be implemented as early as September to get closer to the Fed's goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
CME's FedWatch shows traders expect a gradual rate cut over three meetings before the end of the year.
Bitcoin typically falls in the days leading up to each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with three of the past four rate decisions marking short-term lows.
As the Federal Reserve consolidates monetary policy and keeps a close eye on economic indicators, market expectations for an era of stability and growth are driving Bitcoin towards a possible yearly high, with a target of around $70,000.
Bitcoin’s historical volatility remains relatively low. #Bitcoinhas entered its 96th day of low volatility, the longest single period we have seen in this cycle,” anonymous analyst CryptoCon noted in a July 22 social media post.
He explained that the 5-day historical volatility index is about to move out of the low volatility zone.
According to TradingView data, as of July 31, Bitcoin's historical volatility index was 6.82, well below its 2021 peak of 42.7.
These factors together paint a picture of the current state of the Bitcoin market, where prices appear to be moving in a narrow range.
July is over and August is officially here!
Summary of the performance in July:
The highs and lows continue to decline slightly, suggesting that the price could form a potential bull flag within the current high range, with long-term highs and lows slowly declining.
A cross star pattern was formed, indicating that the market's bullish and bearish divergences broke out completely in July. The two sides engaged in a fierce game, and in the end the bulls had a slight advantage.
Spot trading volume has recovered. Compared with the past three months, the spot trading volume in July has begun to pick up, which is consistent with the cross star candlestick pattern, indicating that there has been a lot of trading activity in the market, which often indicates that a new trend is about to emerge!
Summary: Since BTC first broke through 70,000, the monthly line has remained at a high level and has not seen a sharp correction based on the closing price, indicating that market demand has maintained the price in the past few months.
When a high-level doji appears, accompanied by an increase in trading volume and sufficient turnover, the subsequent price trend will often break the previous shock pattern, and a strong trend is likely to appear.
Trading strategy: Once the $62,300 to $73,800 range is confirmed to be broken, it is likely to usher in a strong trend for at least two months, whether upward or downward.
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