On September 18, fomc, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates.
Observe the last similar preventive interest rate cut, July 31, 2019:
The US stock market fell on the same day, fell for 4 consecutive days, stepped back on the 200-day moving average, and then used a month of shocks to bottom out.
At that time, BTC had just fallen from the top of the bull market in 2019, and the trend had a very low correlation coefficient with the US stock market. After the interest rate cut, it rose for a period of time and rebounded to the second highest.
From 21 to 24 ETFs, the correlation coefficient between currency and macroeconomics is getting higher and higher, and it is difficult to use the trend of 2019 to compare;
This time it is more likely to follow the trend of the US stock market. Before and after the interest rate cut on the 18th, the risk is very high.
If the currency can bottom out in one month after the interest rate cut, it is also a good time to enter the market.
In fact, BTC has only experienced one interest rate cut cycle, which started in mid-2019;
Therefore, simply analyzing the long-term trend of BTC by interest rate cuts and interest rate hikes still lacks data basis. Fortunately, BTC currently follows the US stock market more often at a large level, so it is more meaningful to analyze the historical performance of the US stock market before and after the interest rate cut;
As shown in the figure: In the three interest rate cut cycles experienced by the S&P index futures in the past 20 years, the first two rounds were a sharp drop after the interest rate cut, while in 2019, the interest rate cut continued to break new highs until a sharp drop after the epidemic;
Then the conclusion is In fact, it is obvious that whether or not the interest rate is cut cannot determine the rise and fall of the market. What determines the market trend is the reason for the interest rate cut;
2000 and 2007 were both standard hard landings, while 2019 was a soft landing if the epidemic was excluded. The characteristics of the current economic environment are not clear, and it is in a superposition state of uncertainty whether there will be a recession;
So the focus should still be on employment data. If the unemployment rate begins to maintain uncontrollable growth after the interest rate cut, then the probability of a recession "hard landing" is higher. If it can be stabilized between 4.5-4% for a long time, then the probability of a soft landing is higher.
My personal opinion: The interest rate cut in September has been completely priced in. Under the condition of 25 basis points, the market will not have a significant reaction. The focus is still on the quality of the next employment data.
$BTC has reached the 1-4 hour pressure position of 55630. Only if it breaks through this position can it have the momentum to rise. The upper 56850 can be used as the key position of this rebound. If it breaks through, it will usher in a reversal. Otherwise, it will continue to fall to 51490.
图中上方指标为BTC价格;下方指标为BTC: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio),即BTC市价与链上BTC总体平均买入价格之比。需要注意的是,图中的BTC: MVRV指标为个人修改版,即把链上超过7年没动过的 #BTC 视作长期休眠或丢失从计算中剔除。