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超级央行周
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阿祖的交易日记
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Once upon a time, there was a place with poor land and piles of barren mountains without hair. Local officials found a local tycoon and asked how to develop the economy. The tycoon said, contract these mountains to me, give me some contract documents, and I will take care of the rest. Then, the tycoon found some second-level contractors and contracted out the barren mountains at high annual prices. So these contractors made up a story that there were gold mines in these barren mountains, clamoring everyone to dig for gold, and then sold the mining rights to gold diggers. Some businessmen without resources just sold shovels, mineral water, and maps to gold diggers along the way. In the end, the gold diggers didn't make any money, but those who sold barren mountains, shovels, maps, and mineral water made a lot of money. Which businesses are prohibited and you are doing them. Only opportunities, and which businesses are encouraged to do them are their opportunities. #超级央行周 #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息?
Once upon a time, there was a place with poor land and piles of barren mountains without hair. Local officials found a local tycoon and asked how to develop the economy. The tycoon said, contract these mountains to me, give me some contract documents, and I will take care of the rest. Then, the tycoon found some second-level contractors and contracted out the barren mountains at high annual prices. So these contractors made up a story that there were gold mines in these barren mountains, clamoring everyone to dig for gold, and then sold the mining rights to gold diggers. Some businessmen without resources just sold shovels, mineral water, and maps to gold diggers along the way. In the end, the gold diggers didn't make any money, but those who sold barren mountains, shovels, maps, and mineral water made a lot of money. Which businesses are prohibited and you are doing them. Only opportunities, and which businesses are encouraged to do them are their opportunities.
#超级央行周 #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息?
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Bearish
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#DOGE $DOGE DOGE market overview: 1/2/4 hour levels are all short, pay attention to 0.10350. Downward targets: 0.08427, 0.08293, 0.08144. Rebound resistance: 0.10797, 0.10946, 0.11155. Long-term spot strategy: add positions on dips, buy more when the price drops. The same sentence below 🍜Picture🈶Wealth code, if you don’t know what to do in the bull market, pay attention to me, the beginning of jujube wodian, like, daily live one-on-one guidance, bull market spot planning, contract password, I need fans, you need passwords, it’s better to pay attention than to guess. #Dogecoin就是金钱📲⚡️🐕💸 #doge⚡ #DOGEUSDT #超级央行周
#DOGE $DOGE DOGE market overview:
1/2/4 hour levels are all short, pay attention to 0.10350.
Downward targets: 0.08427, 0.08293, 0.08144.
Rebound resistance: 0.10797, 0.10946, 0.11155.
Long-term spot strategy: add positions on dips, buy more when the price drops.
The same sentence below 🍜Picture🈶Wealth code, if you don’t know what to do in the bull market, pay attention to me, the beginning of jujube wodian, like, daily live one-on-one guidance, bull market spot planning, contract password, I need fans, you need passwords, it’s better to pay attention than to guess. #Dogecoin就是金钱📲⚡️🐕💸 #doge⚡ #DOGEUSDT #超级央行周
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Overview of XRP Technical Analysis FXStreet analyst Ekta Mourya pointed out that XRP has been trending higher recently, forming a series of higher highs and lows since July 12. Technical charts show that XRP may first test the support level of $0.5632 to collect liquidity, and then it may launch a nearly 10% increase. However, the road to the rise is not smooth. XRP first faces resistance at $0.6058, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is also near the high of March 25. The further upward target is $0.6666, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the March high to the July low, but it will take a lot of resistance to achieve this goal. On the other hand, the MACD indicator gives a different signal. The MACD line crosses the signal line downward, indicating that XRP prices may face downward pressure in the short term and the negative momentum of the market is increasing. This technical divergence reminds investors to be vigilant about potential market corrections. Therefore, the short-term trend of XRP is particularly critical. If market sentiment weakens, XRP may fall to the support level of $0.5205, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Investors should pay close attention to the support of this price and the changes in key technical indicators such as MACD to formulate flexible trading strategies. In short, Ripple (XRP) is currently in a sensitive period of technical analysis. Investors need to remain cautious and combine various information to comprehensively judge the market trend. $BTC $XRP #超级央行周 $SKL
Overview of XRP Technical Analysis

FXStreet analyst Ekta Mourya pointed out that XRP has been trending higher recently, forming a series of higher highs and lows since July 12. Technical charts show that XRP may first test the support level of $0.5632 to collect liquidity, and then it may launch a nearly 10% increase.

However, the road to the rise is not smooth. XRP first faces resistance at $0.6058, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is also near the high of March 25. The further upward target is $0.6666, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the March high to the July low, but it will take a lot of resistance to achieve this goal.

On the other hand, the MACD indicator gives a different signal. The MACD line crosses the signal line downward, indicating that XRP prices may face downward pressure in the short term and the negative momentum of the market is increasing. This technical divergence reminds investors to be vigilant about potential market corrections.

Therefore, the short-term trend of XRP is particularly critical. If market sentiment weakens, XRP may fall to the support level of $0.5205, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Investors should pay close attention to the support of this price and the changes in key technical indicators such as MACD to formulate flexible trading strategies.

In short, Ripple (XRP) is currently in a sensitive period of technical analysis. Investors need to remain cautious and combine various information to comprehensively judge the market trend. $BTC $XRP #超级央行周 $SKL
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A quick look at the highlights of the MAX project The MAX project originates from the MATR1X platform, which is famous for its excellent Web3 game works and has received enthusiastic market feedback, showing strong competitiveness and high popularity. We are highly optimistic about the development potential of the MAX project and believe that it is expected to become a leader in the industry in the future. On August 5, MAX will be officially launched on the Euro-Italian Exchange. This is an opportunity that investors and players cannot miss. To celebrate this event, the Caishen community has specially prepared a series of NFT activity airdrop benefits to give back to the fans for their support and love. Please pay close attention to my notifications to get the latest updates on the MAX launch and the participation details of the NFT airdrop event. Let us look forward to the wonderful performance of the MAX project together! #美联储何时降息? #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #超级央行周
A quick look at the highlights of the MAX project

The MAX project originates from the MATR1X platform, which is famous for its excellent Web3 game works and has received enthusiastic market feedback, showing strong competitiveness and high popularity. We are highly optimistic about the development potential of the MAX project and believe that it is expected to become a leader in the industry in the future.
On August 5, MAX will be officially launched on the Euro-Italian Exchange. This is an opportunity that investors and players cannot miss. To celebrate this event, the Caishen community has specially prepared a series of NFT activity airdrop benefits to give back to the fans for their support and love.
Please pay close attention to my notifications to get the latest updates on the MAX launch and the participation details of the NFT airdrop event. Let us look forward to the wonderful performance of the MAX project together!
#美联储何时降息? #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #超级央行周
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A fan asked: What is the difference between stock trading and cryptocurrency trading? Without 5 years of experience, you can't ask such a great question. Many people think that the cryptocurrency circle has high returns and low risks. It doesn't exist. A-shares and cryptocurrency circles are the same. It's like a wage earner who wants a high salary but doesn't want to work, and wants the boss to arrange three meals a day. It's awesome for the post-00s to tidy up the workplace, but it's not so outrageous, right? Back to stocks and cryptocurrency circles, stocks are like the period of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty. The class has been solidified, and retail investors are the meat in the hands of the banker. It's basically difficult for retail investors to make money. The cryptocurrency circle is like the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. The world is not settled, and there are great opportunities and dividends. Of course, there are more scams. To be honest, compared with the weak erection of A-shares, I think the 100 times and 1,000 times of the cryptocurrency circle are more worthy of your and my expectations. Anyway, I'm still young, what's there to be afraid of? At worst, it will return to zero, what else can I do? ? ? Of course, passion does not mean enthusiasm, and courage does not mean recklessness. In the final analysis, we still have to be steady in the cryptocurrency circle. If you meet someone who tells you that you can get rich in a short period of time, block them all. Don't be reluctant. The other party is a scammer and will be killed without mercy. Only by learning the basic knowledge steadily can you make money in the cryptocurrency circle. The last point is that stocks are slowly harvesting retail investors, and the time period is longer, while the cryptocurrency circle is quickly harvesting retail investors For communication and learning, please see the homepage #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息? #超级央行周
A fan asked: What is the difference between stock trading and cryptocurrency trading?

Without 5 years of experience, you can't ask such a great question.
Many people think that the cryptocurrency circle has high returns and low risks. It doesn't exist. A-shares and cryptocurrency circles are the same.
It's like a wage earner who wants a high salary but doesn't want to work, and wants the boss to arrange three meals a day. It's awesome for the post-00s to tidy up the workplace, but it's not so outrageous, right?
Back to stocks and cryptocurrency circles, stocks are like the period of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty. The class has been solidified, and retail investors are the meat in the hands of the banker. It's basically difficult for retail investors to make money.
The cryptocurrency circle is like the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. The world is not settled, and there are great opportunities and dividends. Of course, there are more scams.
To be honest, compared with the weak erection of A-shares, I think the 100 times and 1,000 times of the cryptocurrency circle are more worthy of your and my expectations.
Anyway, I'm still young, what's there to be afraid of? At worst, it will return to zero, what else can I do? ? ? Of course, passion does not mean enthusiasm, and courage does not mean recklessness. In the final analysis, we still have to be steady in the cryptocurrency circle. If you meet someone who tells you that you can get rich in a short period of time, block them all. Don't be reluctant. The other party is a scammer and will be killed without mercy.
Only by learning the basic knowledge steadily can you make money in the cryptocurrency circle.
The last point is that stocks are slowly harvesting retail investors, and the time period is longer, while the cryptocurrency circle is quickly harvesting retail investors
For communication and learning, please see the homepage
#美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息? #超级央行周
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Today's hot spots! 2 cryptocurrencies surged 100 times in the bull market! Today's sharing: 1. BTC plummeted in the early morning and is currently fluctuating around $64,000: Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly suffered a sharp drop in the early morning hours. The current price is stable around $64,000, and the market is volatile. 2. ETH follows BTC's pace and falls, and is currently fluctuating in the $3,200 range: Ethereum (ETH) prices also fell after Bitcoin, and are currently fluctuating around $3,200. 3. SOL's callback range exceeded 10%, and gains and callbacks coexisted: SOL experienced a large callback, with a drop of more than 10%. 4. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell hinted at future policy adjustments: The Fed once again announced that it would maintain the current interest rate level unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that if inflation falls as expected and the labor market remains stable, the policy interest rate may be considered in September. What happened to the market? 2 cryptocurrencies surged 100 times in the bull market! 1.ENS If ENS becomes a good investment in 2024, then this year will be a favorable year for cryptocurrencies. All in all, the bullish price prediction for ENS in 2024 is $49.65. In contrast, if negative sentiment is triggered, the bearish price prediction for ENS in 2024 is $7.41. If market momentum and investor sentiment are positively boosted, ENS may reach $60. Moreover, with future upgrades and advancements in the Ethereum Domain Name Service ecosystem, ENS may surpass its current all-time high (ATH) of $85.69 and set a new ATH. 2.JTO Jito (JTO) has shown resilience during the recent market crash, indicating that it has strong growth potential. Currently trading between $2.37 and $3.20, the nearest resistance is $3.50 and support is firmly established at $1.83. With the 10-day moving average at $2.56 and the RSI near neutral at 49.96, bulls seem ready for further gains. If Jito breaks above the $3.50 resistance, it could surge to $4.33, marking a massive gain of over 30%. Recent price changes, including a 10.5% gain in a month and over 36% in six months, further suggest a bright future ahead Exchange Learning Home #美联储何时降息? #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #超级央行周
Today's hot spots! 2 cryptocurrencies surged 100 times in the bull market!

Today's sharing:
1. BTC plummeted in the early morning and is currently fluctuating around $64,000: Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly suffered a sharp drop in the early morning hours. The current price is stable around $64,000, and the market is volatile.
2. ETH follows BTC's pace and falls, and is currently fluctuating in the $3,200 range: Ethereum (ETH) prices also fell after Bitcoin, and are currently fluctuating around $3,200.
3. SOL's callback range exceeded 10%, and gains and callbacks coexisted: SOL experienced a large callback, with a drop of more than 10%.
4. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell hinted at future policy adjustments: The Fed once again announced that it would maintain the current interest rate level unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that if inflation falls as expected and the labor market remains stable, the policy interest rate may be considered in September.

What happened to the market? 2 cryptocurrencies surged 100 times in the bull market!

1.ENS
If ENS becomes a good investment in 2024, then this year will be a favorable year for cryptocurrencies. All in all, the bullish price prediction for ENS in 2024 is $49.65. In contrast, if negative sentiment is triggered, the bearish price prediction for ENS in 2024 is $7.41. If market momentum and investor sentiment are positively boosted, ENS may reach $60. Moreover, with future upgrades and advancements in the Ethereum Domain Name Service ecosystem, ENS may surpass its current all-time high (ATH) of $85.69 and set a new ATH.

2.JTO
Jito (JTO) has shown resilience during the recent market crash, indicating that it has strong growth potential. Currently trading between $2.37 and $3.20, the nearest resistance is $3.50 and support is firmly established at $1.83. With the 10-day moving average at $2.56 and the RSI near neutral at 49.96, bulls seem ready for further gains. If Jito breaks above the $3.50 resistance, it could surge to $4.33, marking a massive gain of over 30%. Recent price changes, including a 10.5% gain in a month and over 36% in six months, further suggest a bright future ahead
Exchange Learning Home
#美联储何时降息? #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #超级央行周
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Brothers, a blockbuster new picture is out! The second half of the year is particularly important for us in the currency circle. While looking for faith everywhere, it is most important to improve our own cognition. Binance Research recently released a research report for the first half of 2024, and expressed some views on the second half of the year, optimistic about the Bitcoin ecosystem, RWA, DePIN, WEB3 games, MEME and other tracks! Caishen reorganized and refined the content, and integrated his own views with some logic. Welcome everyone to like and forward! Exchange and study on the homepage #美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息? #比特币大会 #超级央行周 #美国大选如何影响加密产业?
Brothers, a blockbuster new picture is out!

The second half of the year is particularly important for us in the currency circle. While looking for faith everywhere, it is most important to improve our own cognition.

Binance Research recently released a research report for the first half of 2024, and expressed some views on the second half of the year, optimistic about the Bitcoin ecosystem, RWA, DePIN, WEB3 games, MEME and other tracks!

Caishen reorganized and refined the content, and integrated his own views with some logic. Welcome everyone to like and forward!
Exchange and study on the homepage
#美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息? #比特币大会 #超级央行周 #美国大选如何影响加密产业?
LIVE
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Bullish
This time, the black swan was unexpected yet eerily calm, claiming lives in dreams. Buffett has cashed out, and Japan's circuit breaker feels like both a familiar and distant memory. Uncomfortable? Yes, but not as you'd think. The black swan contract lost 300u, but it's the spot markets shutting down and the chain losing 40%+ that's truly unsettling. Yet, we must forge ahead. The rebound after a significant drop needs to be seized, but with caution. The fate of the US stock market tonight remains uncertain. Today's strategy is straightforward: 👉 Mainstream Orders - $BTC : Enter near 53168, anti-short position 1%-2% - Take profit: near 55500 - Stop loss: 52600 - $ETH: Enter near 2240, anti-short position 1%-2% - Take profit: near 2400 - Stop loss: 2183 👉 Daily Picks - $TON: Enter near 5.2 - Take profit: near 5.6 - Stop loss: 5.1 - $BNB : Enter near 436 - Take profit: near 460 - Stop loss: 432 - $SOL : Place order near 125 - Take profit: near 138 - Stop loss: 122 #美联储何时降息? #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #超级央行周 #比特币大会 #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 Stay sharp and trade wisely! {spot}(BTCUSDT) {spot}(BNBUSDT) {spot}(SOLUSDT)
This time, the black swan was unexpected yet eerily calm, claiming lives in dreams. Buffett has cashed out, and Japan's circuit breaker feels like both a familiar and distant memory. Uncomfortable? Yes, but not as you'd think. The black swan contract lost 300u, but it's the spot markets shutting down and the chain losing 40%+ that's truly unsettling. Yet, we must forge ahead. The rebound after a significant drop needs to be seized, but with caution. The fate of the US stock market tonight remains uncertain.

Today's strategy is straightforward:

👉 Mainstream Orders
- $BTC : Enter near 53168, anti-short position 1%-2%
- Take profit: near 55500
- Stop loss: 52600

- $ETH: Enter near 2240, anti-short position 1%-2%
- Take profit: near 2400
- Stop loss: 2183

👉 Daily Picks
- $TON: Enter near 5.2
- Take profit: near 5.6
- Stop loss: 5.1

- $BNB : Enter near 436
- Take profit: near 460
- Stop loss: 432

- $SOL : Place order near 125
- Take profit: near 138
- Stop loss: 122

#美联储何时降息? #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #超级央行周 #比特币大会 #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

Stay sharp and trade wisely!
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Unveiling Layer3: An unexpected surprise before the collapse of FTX and an in-depth analysis of the aggregation theory In the turbulent world of crypto, Layer3 has become a footnote to an extraordinary journey with its unique position. As the last payment I signed from LedgerPrime, and on the eve of the collapse of FTX, its appearance was somewhat unexpected, but it also inadvertently confirmed the power of the aggregation theory and the profound insight of the founder. Today, we work with Layer3 to unveil the mystery of its internal data set, opening a window for VC elites and industry leaders to explore large-scale innovation models. Layer3 not only generously shared valuable data, but also with its 4.5 million active wallets, 100 million task completions, and 120 million on-chain operations, vividly explained how to build a powerful focus point in the crypto field, just like Google in the Internet world in the early 21st century. In this column, I will have the courage to reflect on myself, overturn some of the assertions of last year, and instead explore in depth how aggregators can achieve new paths for large-scale expansion in the crypto ecosystem. We will see + communication Jun Yang: 954737157 that although consumer applications are often labeled as "difficult to scale" in the encryption field, Layer3's practice has proved that through innovative strategies and deep insights, scale is not out of reach. Let us walk into Layer3's success story and explore the scale secrets behind it. $BOME $XRP $BTC #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #超级央行周
Unveiling Layer3: An unexpected surprise before the collapse of FTX and an in-depth analysis of the aggregation theory
In the turbulent world of crypto, Layer3 has become a footnote to an extraordinary journey with its unique position. As the last payment I signed from LedgerPrime, and on the eve of the collapse of FTX, its appearance was somewhat unexpected, but it also inadvertently confirmed the power of the aggregation theory and the profound insight of the founder.
Today, we work with Layer3 to unveil the mystery of its internal data set, opening a window for VC elites and industry leaders to explore large-scale innovation models. Layer3 not only generously shared valuable data, but also with its 4.5 million active wallets, 100 million task completions, and 120 million on-chain operations, vividly explained how to build a powerful focus point in the crypto field, just like Google in the Internet world in the early 21st century.
In this column, I will have the courage to reflect on myself, overturn some of the assertions of last year, and instead explore in depth how aggregators can achieve new paths for large-scale expansion in the crypto ecosystem. We will see + communication Jun Yang: 954737157 that although consumer applications are often labeled as "difficult to scale" in the encryption field, Layer3's practice has proved that through innovative strategies and deep insights, scale is not out of reach. Let us walk into Layer3's success story and explore the scale secrets behind it. $BOME $XRP $BTC #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #超级央行周
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How will the Japanese yen perform after the rate hike?The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike. What does this mean for the market? How will the yen move next? After years of waiting, the Bank of Japan finally raised rates by 15 basis points and announced an expansion of quantitative tightening, tapering bond purchases until 2026. Also worth noting is that they lowered their inflation forecasts for the end of this year, which is the exact opposite of the European Central Bank, which cut rates but raised inflation expectations, while the Bank of Japan raised rates but lowered inflation expectations, which is an interesting difference. Some analysts call this a dovish rate hike, I think because of the lower inflation expectations. And with two members voting against it, I think the Bank of Japan basically delivered this time. After the decision was released, the yen initially fluctuated sharply, with the USD/JPY falling to around 152.5 at one point, and then rebounding to around 153.7. I still have the same view on the yen, the yen will gradually appreciate and will reach 150 in the next week or two. Of course, this also depends on the Fed tonight. If the Fed unexpectedly becomes hawkish, it will naturally affect the yen. Otherwise, the yen will continue to appreciate, and traders will continue to close carry trades in the coming weeks and months, which will continue to push the yen higher. Now that the dust has settled on the Bank of Japan, the market is focusing on the Fed tonight. If you don’t understand why you should pay attention to these two, you can check out yesterday’s analysis.

How will the Japanese yen perform after the rate hike?

The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike. What does this mean for the market? How will the yen move next?
After years of waiting, the Bank of Japan finally raised rates by 15 basis points and announced an expansion of quantitative tightening, tapering bond purchases until 2026. Also worth noting is that they lowered their inflation forecasts for the end of this year, which is the exact opposite of the European Central Bank, which cut rates but raised inflation expectations, while the Bank of Japan raised rates but lowered inflation expectations, which is an interesting difference. Some analysts call this a dovish rate hike, I think because of the lower inflation expectations. And with two members voting against it, I think the Bank of Japan basically delivered this time. After the decision was released, the yen initially fluctuated sharply, with the USD/JPY falling to around 152.5 at one point, and then rebounding to around 153.7. I still have the same view on the yen, the yen will gradually appreciate and will reach 150 in the next week or two. Of course, this also depends on the Fed tonight. If the Fed unexpectedly becomes hawkish, it will naturally affect the yen. Otherwise, the yen will continue to appreciate, and traders will continue to close carry trades in the coming weeks and months, which will continue to push the yen higher. Now that the dust has settled on the Bank of Japan, the market is focusing on the Fed tonight. If you don’t understand why you should pay attention to these two, you can check out yesterday’s analysis.
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Non-agricultural data was a surprise, the market plummeted, and the Federal Reserve is losing control of the marketThe unexpected non-farm payrolls and poor earnings reports from Intel and other companies led to another sharp drop in U.S. stocks yesterday, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. Let’s break it down. I said in my previous article that I expected a correction in the US stock market in September. It is a little earlier than I expected, but this week's data forced traders to run ahead and price the Fed behind the curve. From some indicators, the US economy has already fallen into recession, but the Fed will not echo this information. Even yesterday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the economy is not close to recession, and he also said that he would not look at only one month's data. Now the market and the Fed are at odds with each other. Some investment banks even think that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November, but the Fed is still not letting up, so there is a disagreement here, and the stock market does not like disagreements. They don't like the Fed to lose control, and now it is the market that is in power, so the stock market is sold off. Any small bad news is magnified. For example, Arm's financial report on Wednesday was okay, but the market decided to sell the stock as long as it was a little dissatisfied. Intel also suffered a bloodbath yesterday. It is still some time before September. If the market still has not changed its mind by then, a 25 basis point interest rate cut is not enough, which will be regarded as the hawkish interest rate cut I mentioned earlier. The market is bound to protest, so the current situation is very bad. The market is giving orders to the Fed, and the Fed is losing control. This is not good news for US stocks, the US dollar, or even the US market. Gold also plummeted after rushing to a historical high.

Non-agricultural data was a surprise, the market plummeted, and the Federal Reserve is losing control of the market

The unexpected non-farm payrolls and poor earnings reports from Intel and other companies led to another sharp drop in U.S. stocks yesterday, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. Let’s break it down.

I said in my previous article that I expected a correction in the US stock market in September. It is a little earlier than I expected, but this week's data forced traders to run ahead and price the Fed behind the curve. From some indicators, the US economy has already fallen into recession, but the Fed will not echo this information. Even yesterday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the economy is not close to recession, and he also said that he would not look at only one month's data. Now the market and the Fed are at odds with each other. Some investment banks even think that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November, but the Fed is still not letting up, so there is a disagreement here, and the stock market does not like disagreements. They don't like the Fed to lose control, and now it is the market that is in power, so the stock market is sold off. Any small bad news is magnified. For example, Arm's financial report on Wednesday was okay, but the market decided to sell the stock as long as it was a little dissatisfied. Intel also suffered a bloodbath yesterday. It is still some time before September. If the market still has not changed its mind by then, a 25 basis point interest rate cut is not enough, which will be regarded as the hawkish interest rate cut I mentioned earlier. The market is bound to protest, so the current situation is very bad. The market is giving orders to the Fed, and the Fed is losing control. This is not good news for US stocks, the US dollar, or even the US market. Gold also plummeted after rushing to a historical high.
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Beware of dovish rate cuts in SeptemberFollowing the previous two articles, Powell delivered to the market as he wished. The market has already priced in a September rate cut, and Powell also confirmed this. Although the initial policy statement was a bit hawkish, Powell confirmed at the press conference after the meeting that a September rate cut is coming. So we saw a big rise in US stocks, but it is worth noting that the leading stocks were not interest rate sensitive small-cap stocks, which is not what we expected to see, but AI companies and technology stocks, which is a bit worrying. The reason why small-cap stocks performed generally is that investors who had rotated out of technology stocks before are now back again.

Beware of dovish rate cuts in September

Following the previous two articles, Powell delivered to the market as he wished. The market has already priced in a September rate cut, and Powell also confirmed this. Although the initial policy statement was a bit hawkish, Powell confirmed at the press conference after the meeting that a September rate cut is coming. So we saw a big rise in US stocks, but it is worth noting that the leading stocks were not interest rate sensitive small-cap stocks, which is not what we expected to see, but AI companies and technology stocks, which is a bit worrying. The reason why small-cap stocks performed generally is that investors who had rotated out of technology stocks before are now back again.
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