The probability of a rate cut in July is almost zero, but cryptocurrencies are 100% likely to do something
This interest rate decision should be everyone's expectation, right?
However, there are also articles to be written, because even if the probability is zero, the Fed can still pave the way for a rate cut in September by modifying its statements on inflation, employment, and the wording of forward-looking guidance. This should also be expected.
If the Fed hints at a rate cut in September, the market will definitely rise, but the market has already digested a more aggressive easing path. So the decline continues to adjust and digests through long-term fluctuations.
Especially this bull market happens to be in the year of the US election. It is very likely that all US financial products will continue to rise in August and then fall back in September and October.
Bitcoin may not be an exception!
The Fed's rate cut may bring a short-term rebound, but considering the market's widespread expectations of a rate cut, this optimism may not last.
In addition, even if the Fed cuts interest rates, the dollar's downside space may not be very large. The possibility of a rate cut in September has been fully priced in by the market, and given the uncertainty of the inflation outlook, the Fed's dovish remarks may be "in short supply", which may re-boost the US dollar in the short to medium term.
If this logic is followed, Bitcoin may need to continue to cut interest rates to have a better rise, because it is more like a US stock. The point of this sentence is not that it can't reach 80,000 or 90,000, but that it has completely broken away from the barbaric growth and waterfalls of the past...
Ps: Some of my immature views, welcome to discuss.
