Finally I can use the computer. The volatility of#BTCin the early morning is indeed beyond my expectation.
The market was originally fluctuating within a range, but the unexpected news caused a brief panic in the market, which led to a wider decline in the short term. However, after the panic, the market gradually became rational and the market stabilized.
The source of the matter is that tonight the crypto tracking company Arkham tracked a US address transferring 2 billion worth of BTC to a digital wallet, which triggered speculation that the United States might sell BTC, leading to an increase in short-term declines.
However, Arkham later sent out another X, saying that it might also be entrusted to an institution.
Once the incident occurred, two speculations emerged in the market:
1. The Biden administration is currently in power. Since its rival Trump proposed at the Crypto2024 conference last weekend to use the US government’s current BTC reserves as a strategic reserve, the Biden administration is going to do the opposite this week and "slap" Trump in the face.
2. They believe that it is a normal BTC transfer and agree with Arkham’s view that BTC should be managed in a formal manner by institutional custody.
At present, speculation about the origin of this BTC is still that it is part of the BTC tokens seized by "Silk Road". This is the view given in an article in Bloomberg. At the same time, the article believes that there is currently a short-term oversupply of BTC, especially the futures that bet on Trump's weekend conference last week, which will be sold this week. This will be one of the reasons for the short-term decline in BTC prices.
Let me share my personal opinion:
Regarding the changes in this part of tokens, my personal opinion is to agree with the second point. This part of tokens transferred to the wallet should be entrusted to the custody or management of the institution, so that the security of this part of tokens can be fully guaranteed and they can be used appropriately.
Why are we not optimistic about the first view, that is, the Biden administration wants to sell? The main reason is that although Biden has stepped down, the election has not yet come to a final result, and Harris, who is also a Democrat, still needs to win votes. This means that the Democratic Party should not use the sale of coins to slap Trump in the face, because in order to slap him in the face, it may lose a large number of votes in the crypto field.
Simply put, the Democratic Party still wants the votes of crypto supporters, so they should not offend crypto supporters at this time, especially with such a large-scale coin selling action, the profits gained may be far less than the lost support. As savvy capital, I don’t think they will choose this way.
Disk situation:
At present, the market should temporarily stabilize in the 4-hour Bollinger Band range, which is not bad, but we still need to be wary of whether the Asian market will follow suit and panic sell. If the US government’s token transfer incident does not continue to ferment, then the price can still remain volatile and there is a possibility of hitting a high again this week.
There are more macro narratives this week, and there is also the issue of interest rate cuts that everyone has been paying attention to. Once the September interest rate cut is confirmed at this interest rate meeting, there will at least be a wave of FOMO sentiment in the short term.
So don’t panic, it’s just that this kind of market situation may make it difficult for those who do contracts!
