July 25 macroeconomic data preview: U.S. second quarter GDP/consumer expenditure/core PCE quarterly rate preliminary value
This week is the "quiet period" of the Federal Reserve. Due to the decline of US stocks and the digestion process of the AI bubble, many Western media and related scholars have begun to criticize the current economic situation.
It also proactively raised the possibility of a US economic recession, which in the short term pushed up the probability of a rate cut in July to 10%.
Is the US recession a reality? Is the US economy not as strong as it looks in the data? Although we all have realistic views, whether the data can verify this fact, tonight's GDP data will be very important.
Bold assumptions, careful analysis, welcome to Uncle Cat’s encrypted “channel”
Small science:
The initial value of the quarterly rate is quarterly data. The initial value is generally announced one month after the end of the quarter, and the final value is announced three months after the end of the quarter.
The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States was 1.4% in the previous period and 2.0% in the expected period.
Data weight: ★★★★★ (weighted 1★ due to current situation)
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
This data is the gross national product data of the United States, provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which intuitively shows the economic performance of the United States in the second quarter.
Announcement > Expectation > Previous Value, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar, and the stock prices of the physical sector of the US stock market.
Announcement = Expectation > Previous Value, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar, and the stock prices of the real sector of US stocks.
The announcement of the previous value of is good for the US economy and the US dollar, and will alleviate the decline in US stocks.
The release of the previous value is lower than expected, and the US economy has entered a period of slow growth, with the possibility of recession and economic crisis. This is bad for the US economy and good for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible.
The GDP data tonight may save the US stock market from falling in the short term. After the data is released, the crypto market may not fluctuate much and will wait for the US stock market to react. If the GDP shows that the economy continues to grow steadily and strongly, then the current crisis of the US stock market is only from the AI bubble, and the Russell, Dow Jones and other indexes will rebound, and the Nasdaq and S&P will also slow down their decline.
At the same time, the rebound of Russell and Dow Jones will ease the tense investment sentiment in the United States, which will be conducive to the inflow of funds into the crypto market and the purchase of ETFs.
At the same time, if the GDP data performs well tonight and there is no rebound in the core PCE on Friday, the expectation of a rate cut in September will be consolidated again.
U.S. real consumer spending quarterly rate in the second quarter/core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate
These two data are released together with GDP, which will have a certain impact on the impact of GDP on the market.
Actual consumption quarterly rate: previous value 1.5%, expected 2%,
Core PCE price index: previous value 3.7%, expected 2.7%
If the figures released for both data are in line with expectations, then the U.S. economy in the second quarter can be interpreted as stable and strong economic growth, while maintaining good consumption capacity and effectively falling prices. The reduction in inflation comes from lower prices rather than weakened consumption. This is the data the Federal Reserve wants to see most, and such data is indeed conducive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plan.
On the contrary, if consumption weakens, or even falls short of the previous value, while core PCE prices remain strong, it means that the current decline in inflation comes from weakening consumption, which is something the Fed does not want to see. At the same time, such data can trigger the possibility of a crisis in the labor market and the U.S. economy. According to the current situation, the probability of a rate cut in July can be pushed up in the short term.
Summarize:
The effect of tonight's data is quite miraculous. If the data is good, it will be a good impetus for the interest rate cut in September, and will bring the market a good expectation for future interest rate cuts. The risk market sentiment will pick up.
However, if the data is poor, the possibility of a US economic recession will increase. Although the probability of a rate cut in July will be greatly increased, it will not be an immediate benefit to the risk market, but will instead cause panic.
As for the crypto market, after the data is released, we still have to wait for the opening of the U.S. stock market at 21:30. If the S&P and Nasdaq fall and the Russell and Dow Jones rebound after that, it will also be good for the investment sentiment in the crypto market.
