July 1 Macro data interpretation: US manufacturing PMI index, Recommended reading: ★★★
21:45 US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value, previous value 51.7 expected 51.7 data recorded 51.6,
Data expectations are consistent with the initial value, the final data recorded slightly lower than the expected value, and the final data was 51.6, lower than the expected and previous value, and slightly increased compared with the May final value of 51.3.
The data can be interpreted as the US manufacturing index in June was lower than expected, but higher than the year-on-year data of the previous month, and the manufacturing industry gradually became active but lower than expected. At the same time, the value of 50 is the 0 axis of the manufacturing industry. Above 50 means positive growth in the industry, and below 50 means industry recession.
The lower-than-expected growth in the manufacturing industry will also lead to expectations of the possibility of a US economic recession, which is bearish for the US dollar and US stocks, while helping to control inflation and bullish expectations of interest rate cuts.
The data is provided by private enterprises, so the data weight and reliability are not as good as the later IMS data. At the same time, it will not bring large fluctuations to the market in the short term, and it is only used as one of the data for interpreting the US economy and monetary policy.
22:00 US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous value 48.7, expected 49.1, published value 48.5
The data expects that the manufacturing industry will increase in activity compared with the previous month, but the actual data is lower than expected, even lower than the previous value. The data shows that the US manufacturing industry in June is less active than the previous month, which is bad for the US economy and the US dollar and US stocks, and at the same time it is helpful for inflation control, which is good for the expectation of interest rate cuts.
The ISM data is provided by the US Supply Management Association, and the data weight and authenticity are higher than the S&P Global PMI data.
Judging from today's macro data, this is good for inflation and the job market in June. Whether it is S&P's PMI or ISM's PMI data, it means that the US manufacturing industry growth in June is lower than expected, economic activity has declined, and it has brought certain benefits to the control of price inflation. At the same time, the slowdown in manufacturing will also reduce the number of corporate recruitment and boost the unemployment rate. These factors are conducive to the expectation of interest rate cuts.
However, the decline in the two data compared with the previous value is relatively small. Comprehensive assessment shows that they will not have a far-reaching impact on inflation in June. For now, they can only be used as a reference for employment and inflation data in June, and cannot be used as the main basis for judging the final employment and PCE values.
