Jin Ten Data Organization: Daily Investment Bank/Institution Opinions Summary (2025-02-11)
Overseas
1. Societe Generale: Chinese technology stocks remain at low levels, Hang Seng Index expected to reach 23000.
2. Goldman Sachs: Tariffs may have a longer-term impact on the US dollar.
3. Goldman Sachs: There is a 70% chance that the US will impose a 10% import tariff on copper by the end of 2025.
4. Goldman Sachs: Trump's immigration policies will hinder economic growth but have a limited impact on inflation.
5. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve has ended its rate-cutting cycle, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the second half of the year.
6. Fitch: The threat and uncertainty of US tariffs pose risks to Mexico.
7. ING: Safe-haven demand drives gold futures and spot prices to new highs.
8. ING: New tariff threats may trigger some bond volatility.
9. DBS Bank: US tariffs and interest rate uncertainty make 2025 a "tumultuous year."
10. Societe Generale: The estimate of the European Central Bank's neutral interest rate is of limited use in assessing interest rate prospects.
11. Morgan Stanley: Tariff risks may lead OPEC+ to extend production cuts.
12. Morgan Stanley: The euro may rise if the EU avoids high tariffs.
Domestic
1. Huatai Securities: Optimistic about the upward trend of the gold boom cycle.
2. CITIC Securities: The penetration rate of domestic mid-to-high-end intelligent driving is expected to double by 2025.
3. CITIC Securities: The theoretical upper limit for insurance companies investing in gold during the pilot phase is about 200 billion yuan.
4. Galaxy Securities: The continuation of national subsidy policies in 2025 will support the performance recovery of leading home furnishing companies.
5. Dongwu Securities: AI drives demand for edge-side SoC, and leading testing machine companies are expected to benefit.
#财经 #币圈 #区块链

【Most U.S. large asset class ETFs fell, Nasdaq ETF, soybean fund, small-cap index ETF dropped over 1% on non-farm day】
On Friday (February 7), the Nasdaq 100 ETF fell by 1.26%, the soybean fund fell by 1.2%, the Russell 2000 index ETF fell by 1.16%, the Dow ETF, S&P 500 ETF, U.S. Treasury 20+ year ETF, and long euro fell by 0.95%-0.59%, agricultural product fund fell by 0.4%, emerging markets ETF fell by 0.09%, long yen and gold ETF rose less than 0.2%, long U.S. dollar index rose by 0.44%, and U.S. Brent crude oil fund rose by 0.46%.
This week, the U.S. Brent oil price fund fell a total of 1.92% (previously down 2.88% and 1.67% in the last two weeks), the Dow ETF fell by 0.51%, long euro fell by 0.41%, long U.S. dollar index fell by 0.27%, Russell 2000 index ETF fell by 0.21%, S&P 500 ETF fell by 0.17%, agricultural product fund fell by 0.11%, Nasdaq 100 ETF rose by 0.12%, soybean fund rose by 0.54%, emerging markets rose by 1.12%, real estate ETF rose by 1.19%, gold ETF rose by 2.07% (previously rose 0.87%, 1.94%, 0.43%, 2.56%, 1.14% in the last five weeks), U.S. Treasury 20+ year ETF rose by 2.08%, long yen rose by 2.56%.#财经

Tax Suspension: The White House Restores Duty-Free Treatment for Small Packages from China

On February 8, U.S. President Trump signed a new executive order that temporarily continues to allow low-cost product packages from China to enter the United States duty-free until the Department of Commerce "establishes a sufficient system to comprehensively and swiftly handle and collect tariff revenue."

This latest executive order temporarily overturns some provisions of his decision to impose tariffs on China made last Saturday (February 1). On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, and at that time, the order also canceled the "minimum threshold" tariff exemption for small packages valued under $800 from China. #财经

On February 6, Jin Ten Data reported that Katharine Neiss, Chief European Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, stated that despite the Bank of England lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, the UK’s 4.5% interest rate remains significantly higher than that of other countries, especially European nations. Given the continued strong rise in wages, corporate input costs, and energy prices, the Bank of England is still expected to lower interest rates in a limited and gradual manner in the foreseeable future. UK assets continue to be susceptible to changes in market sentiment, which may also be another factor influencing the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions. #财经

【Tonight at 20:00 the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision】On February 6, news: at 20:00 Beijing time tonight, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and update its quarterly economic forecast. The market generally expects the bank to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%. The voting ratio may show divergence again, and it is highly likely to retain the signal of 'cutting rates once per quarter', #财经

There are four ways to get rich in this circle:

1. Rely on the principal
Chip suppression, even if you are trapped, you can continue to lower the average price, unlimited bullets

2. Rely on technology
Rely on your own technology to obtain first-hand market information, information is value

3. Rely on diligence
The ordinary must-go path

4. Rely on fate
The chosen one, Ru Liangxi

If you want to survive and get rich, you must at least occupy one, right?

#财经 #币圈

JPMorgan said in a research note on Wednesday that Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds have seen net outflows overall since launching last month, while spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year have been more successful. Ethereum funds have seen net outflows of about $500 million, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of more than $5 billion.

The bank said the weak data for Ethereum ETFs was somewhat expected, noting that Bitcoin's "first-mover advantage," lack of collateralization, and lower liquidity mean it is less attractive to institutional investors. #财经

Now that the cryptocurrency market is not rising, one view is that it will be fine if interest rates are lowered or liquidity comes.

But why has the US stock market been rising for half a year, gold has also been rising for half a year, but digital gold has no liquidity - the cryptocurrency market used to have a feeling of an invincible field army, but after being recruited, it was found that it could only stand at the bottom...

The cryptocurrency market must be self-reliant. #币圈 #财经

If Powell fails to cut rates sharply, record bets will face losses
The Federal Reserve is about to announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. If Fed officials choose to kick off the rate cut with a standard scale, the related record bets may cause traders to suffer heavy losses.
Data compiled by institutions show that in the October federal funds futures that investors use to bet on this week's resolution, trading activity has soared to the highest level comparable since the contract was launched in 1988. Most of these new bets are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points#财经

If the weekly line continues to be regarded as a box, the price must return to 59600-60600 to be considered to be inside the box. If it is regarded as a flag, the price should also be stabilized above 54000. The current weekly line has seen continuous cross stars, and there is also a dusk star in front. It is necessary to effectively break through the upper pressure to avoid further breaking.

The Ethereum closing hammer line touches the lower track of BOLL and rebounds, but the price has not changed much at present. The daily level is sideways and oscillating. There is a chance to accumulate power and then rebound upward.
#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落
The US stock market continued to rise. The Dow Jones rose 0.58%, which has returned to the previous high. The Nasdaq rose 1.39%, the S&P 500 rose 0.97%, and even the Nikkei index returned to the weekly box. But the big cake is still half dead, wait patiently. Not to mention that this wave is not strongly correlated with the rise and fall of the US stock market, the big cake is called digital gold, which bears part of the risk aversion role and will inevitably synchronize or follow the trend of gold.
#美联储何时降息？
Big Cake
The daily line breaks through the BOLL middle track and the probability of going to 66,000 increases. In the past few days, we have been saying that MACD turns red and the fast and slow lines cross. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the daily BOLL middle track, but the price has been falling. The daily line has broken through the downward flag to open up space.

4-hour falling channel, yesterday it rebounded again at 57,600 and was supported. There is also a head and shoulders bottom pattern here. The most important thing at present is to break through the upper channel to open the rebound pattern.
Support:
Pressure:

Ether

The daily line is temporarily suppressed near the BOLL middle track, and MACD turns red and continues to grow. If it can break through 2,800, it will have a chance to rebound to around 3,080. A few days ago, it was also said that although the Ethereum rebound is not strong, if Big Cake can rebound effectively, it can also drive it. After the 4-hour rise, it has been fluctuating between 2,500 and 2,689. It is difficult to rise generally in the cottage season. This belongs to the 20% coin cottage season.
Support:
Pressure:
#财经

The most stable way to make money is still to arbitrage:

Tugou focuses on information gap, which is essentially an arbitrage, or an arbitrage with a huge yield. The cycle is measured in days, and it is called the currency circle money printing machine. Those who make a lot of money in this round are all playing Tugou meme... Shanzhai Party cries

If you stay up all night in the currency circle, either rushing this coin or that coin, but in the end you don’t even hold 1 Bitcoin or even 0.1 Bitcoin...

Then you really should reconsider your entire existence in the encryption field.

Only do K-line technical analysis: There is a 5/5 odds, the difficulty is high, and the various K-line rules are easy to fail, and cannot be used for a long time #以太坊 #比特币 #财经

Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference was almost equivalent to an early "official announcement" of a September rate cut. The market has already fully factored in the September rate cut. The expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated several times and significantly this year, which fully demonstrates that simple linear extrapolation at any point in time may be completely reversed. The swing in expectations has increased the difficulty of asset allocation. #财经

"Sugar High" discusses the current global financial markets, especially the impact of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy on the market. He believes that the Fed's current interest rate cuts are similar to short-term "sugar stimulus", which can temporarily boost market sentiment, but ultimately it will need to rely on more lasting measures, such as increasing the money supply, to maintain market growth. Hayes also mentioned the risks that the appreciation of the yen may bring to global markets, especially the pressure on dollar-based assets. He warned that if the yen continues to appreciate, the Federal Reserve may need to take more aggressive measures, such as resuming quantitative easing, to stabilize the market. He is optimistic about the liquidity environment in global financial markets in the coming months and believes that crypto assets such as Bitcoin may benefit in this situation. #财经

Falling is not scary, what is scary is "to be continued" - people don't know why it fell.
Last night was a very poor "expectation management" by the Federal Reserve. The global market fell twice after the release of non-agricultural data, or more precisely, after two speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
Gold is the most representative market:
The first "fall": after the speech of New York Fed President Williams. He said that "the job market has returned to normal from an overheated state" (implying a 25 basis point interest rate cut), and then the gold price turned around and fell - originally after the release of non-agricultural data, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, but after Williams hinted at a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the gold price began to fall from the intraday high.
After the speech of Federal Reserve Board member Waller. He said that if the data showed that a larger interest rate cut was needed, I would also support it. After Waller's speech, the originally stabilized gold price fell further - when the Federal Reserve first talked about the issue of the interest rate cut (and hinted that a large interest rate cut was not ruled out), the market would think that the economy was so bad that a 50 basis point interest rate cut was needed.
We have warned that whether the Fed says "25 basis points or 50 basis points", it will be regarded as bad news by the market. If it says "25 basis points", the market's expectation of interest rate cut will appear radical. If it says "50 basis points", the market will think that there is a big problem with the economy.
The best way is to choose silence and convey the signal of the interest rate cut through the news media before the meeting. When you don't know what to say, it's best to shut up.
What awaits the market next week is the "secondary disaster" caused by the Fed's vague expression. Unfortunately, the release of the US August CPI data and the first TV debate between Trump and Harris will also take place next week.
Get ready for a more violent storm. #财经

Market analysis: 1. BTC dropped to 71500 and pulled up. It seems to have stabilized for the time being. If it can stand firm at 72000, it will be 70% bullish tonight. If it effectively breaks through 72300, the upward trend will be confirmed! 2. CFX15 has created a short-term double bottom, see the picture for details. As long as it can effectively break through 0.323, it will start an upward trend! #BTC #财经

After a slight decline last night, the price of the currency rebounded rapidly in the morning today and is currently hovering around 57,000. 📈
It surged in the morning, so please be cautious and don't chase high prices! It is expected that there may be a correction during the day, so please pay attention to the correction opportunities. 📉
The current price is 57,000-57,400, and look at around 56,000. #财经

[The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, and may further ease in December] The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates next Thursday. As a prelude to the Fed's rate cut, the global monetary policy cycle is tilting towards a more synchronized easing direction. The core question of this month's meeting is whether these rate cuts will herald the beginning of a deeper easing cycle, which will not only remove restrictions on major economies, but may also begin to stimulate economic growth. Institutions expect the ECB to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. However, higher wage growth rates and the stickiness of service industry inflation may prevent the Governing Council from committing to this action in advance. It is reported that Governing Council officials prefer to adjust interest rates with the latest quarterly forecasts, which makes further rate cuts in December more likely than in October. #财经