Falling is not scary, what is scary is "to be continued" - people don't know why it fell.

Last night was a very poor "expectation management" by the Federal Reserve. The global market fell twice after the release of non-agricultural data, or more precisely, after two speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

Gold is the most representative market:

The first "fall": after the speech of New York Fed President Williams. He said that "the job market has returned to normal from an overheated state" (implying a 25 basis point interest rate cut), and then the gold price turned around and fell - originally after the release of non-agricultural data, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, but after Williams hinted at a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the gold price began to fall from the intraday high.

After the speech of Federal Reserve Board member Waller. He said that if the data showed that a larger interest rate cut was needed, I would also support it. After Waller's speech, the originally stabilized gold price fell further - when the Federal Reserve first talked about the issue of the interest rate cut (and hinted that a large interest rate cut was not ruled out), the market would think that the economy was so bad that a 50 basis point interest rate cut was needed.

We have warned that whether the Fed says "25 basis points or 50 basis points", it will be regarded as bad news by the market. If it says "25 basis points", the market's expectation of interest rate cut will appear radical. If it says "50 basis points", the market will think that there is a big problem with the economy.

The best way is to choose silence and convey the signal of the interest rate cut through the news media before the meeting. When you don't know what to say, it's best to shut up.

What awaits the market next week is the "secondary disaster" caused by the Fed's vague expression. Unfortunately, the release of the US August CPI data and the first TV debate between Trump and Harris will also take place next week.

Get ready for a more violent storm. #财经