In the cryptocurrency world, experienced players are well aware that "slow rise and rapid fall" is a common method used by major funds for shaking out positions, especially notable during bullish market rebounds.

This method typically manifests as follows: after several days of price increases, there is suddenly a sharp drop that erases all previous gains, leading to panic selling by inexperienced and emotionally unstable investors.

At this time, major funds take the opportunity to accumulate these low-priced chips, and after market sentiment stabilizes, they gradually push prices higher.

When the price approaches or breaks through previous highs again, market sentiment becomes exuberant, and retail investors rush to buy. However, major funds may again resort to sharp declines to shake out positions; this adjustment is usually quick, short in duration, with a drop generally between 5%-10%, sometimes reaching 15%-20%, but typically stabilizing near key support levels. #比特币 #币圈 #市场分析

#市场分析 Currently, the market sentiment is low and the price is falling. You can open the daily level of the exchange to see that the trading volume and volume of all currencies in the market have all fallen sharply. The liquidity is very poor. It seems that the main force does not protect the market at all, and allows retail investors to buy and sell freely, which will lead to the current situation. According to the past situation, there are only two possible situations: ① This is a relatively bad plan. The market has not increased in volume for the time being and has been falling. If there is a sudden downward needle or a large-volume drop in the end, it will be quickly recovered, indicating that funds have intervened to activate the market and start a rebound in the future. ② That is, the emotional market is suppressed to the extreme, and the short squeeze is serious. This period of negative decline forces spot players to cut their losses without seeing hope. In the future, they will directly reactivate the market with a large-volume positive line and start a rebound. In general, it is best to be patient and wait. This kind of market operation is equivalent to losing money. It will be much better to wait for the market to activate or reverse before intervening, otherwise it is easy to get upset. Don't do contracts!

Finally, you can pay attention to the new currencies recently listed on Binance, but don’t buy them, because many of the currencies listed now have room for growth in the primary market. If the secondary market sentiment and funds are insufficient, they will go down all the way. Only when the overall market reverses, the new coins listed on Binance will have the opportunity to rebound as the leader. So don’t buy them immediately after they are listed, as there is a high probability that you will be buried! You can refer to the trend of previously listed currencies and wait until they show similar patterns in the figure!

#微策略持续增持BTC #市场反弹预测 #比特币价格走势分析 Every new dawn is an invitation filled with opportunities, and this feeling is especially strong in the world of cryptocurrency. I believe every crypto enthusiast has had this experience: after a long period of stagnation, Bitcoin has finally welcomed a slight rebound. This gives me a sense of relief, and I am ready to start reducing my holdings. But my intuition tells me that this is not the final major rebound, just a small fluctuation. The strategy is to reduce holdings after making a profit, and wait to buy back when the price drops, in order to lower the average cost of holding.

Now, seeing this kind of rebound, I firmly hold a bullish view on all my holdings, with a target price of $30,000. In the coming days, we may witness a strong performance of Bitcoin, let's catch the tail end of the bull market! #市场分析 #加密货币

Let us explore more opportunities together, looking forward to your attention and likes! $BTC

Here are three common mistakes that retail investors make in this bull market:

1. At the end of 2023, retail investors were overly concerned that the market would repeat the crash at the end of 2019, resulting in missing out.

2. Entering 2024, retail investors panicked again, fearing that the market would repeat the sharp correction on March 12, 2020 (312), resulting in missing out again.

3. It is expected that by the end of 2024, retail investors may face huge losses due to blindly chasing the rise and trying to replicate the surge in altcoins in 2021.

These mistakes all stem from the fact that retail investors failed to make reasonable arrangements when the market was at a low point. When the market cycle reached a critical moment, they were eager to respond temporarily and blindly predicted the future based on historical trends. Whether waiting for a historical crash to buy at the bottom or expecting a historical surge to increase leverage, it seemed unrealistic.

In response to the above issues, retail investors in this round of bull market should follow three principles:

1. In 2023, we should not blindly predict and operate based on the market outline of 2019.

2. In 2024, we should not be overly worried that the market will replicate the market situation on March 12, 2020.

3. In 2025, we should not blindly pursue the replication of the double-headed bull market in 2021.

Retail investors should keep in mind investment common sense and resolutely avoid blind behavior of chasing ups and downs. #市场分析 #牛市 #散户 $BTC

Exploring the cryptocurrency market has always been my greatest pleasure. Every new breakthrough and counterattack is the driving force for our continued struggle.

Today, we no longer use market charts because the market trend is completely within our expectations. However, "Big Pie" should not forget that some resistance levels are very critical. We must remain moderately vigilant at these points such as 102640 and 104000. If the market rises too fast, there may be hidden shocks. Especially the strong resistance at 99950, we need the main force's big positive line to break through and gain a foothold above 100500. Breaking through is not a problem, the real challenge is to grasp the opportunity.

I know that some people think I am annoying because I always warn everyone to be cautious and not blindly optimistic, but this is out of the hope that you can pocket every penny.

Now, Big Pie's positions above 101000 can consider gradually taking profits, but don't lose the opportunity when the best time comes. Floating profits are not considered earned, and the money that has not been pocketed is not yours. For us who are still practicing asceticism, trading is practice.

I have already bought all positions, and I look forward to the next rising target reaching 107,000! I hope everyone can stay rational and not blindly FOMO.

$BTC $ETH #市场分析 #交易修行

If you find it useful, please like, follow and share! #XRP热度飙升 #哪些代币逆势上涨？ #本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？

🔍Bitcoin will not suffer a supply shock in 2025!

I recently saw an interesting study about whether Bitcoin will experience a supply shock in 2025. Experts have always said that the halving of Bitcoin, the increasing interest of institutions, and the possible launch of a spot BTC ETF in the United States will limit the supply of Bitcoin, which may break the 4-year cycle theory and keep the price rising. But CEX.IO's new report says that this is unlikely to happen in 2025.

The report analyzes the changes in LTH supply after the halving event. Historical data shows that halving will cause a large number of tokens to transfer from LTH to short-term holders (STH), thereby increasing market liquidity. In 2024 alone, LTH's supply dominance fell by 9%, releasing 1.58 million BTC to the market. It is expected that 1.4 million BTC will be transferred from LTH to STH in 2025, which is enough to cope with the increase in institutional or government demand.

As for the impact of ETFs on market supply shocks, the report believes that its actual effect is very limited. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than 1.13 million BTC in 2024, but these are mainly achieved through spot trading, which puts less pressure on market supply. In addition, ETFs account for less than 4% of total Bitcoin trading volume, indicating that their ability to drive systemic supply imbalances is limited.

The report also mentioned that market liquidity and foreign exchange reserves are key factors. Although the Bitcoin reserves held by exchanges fell to a record low in 2024, this was mainly due to transfers to cold storage rather than liquidation, reflecting the market's long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

At the same time, the increase in holdings on OTC trading platforms indicates that liquidity is being redistributed rather than exhausted. Coupled with the stable daily transfer volume, it shows that the market is balanced and active. The market depth indicator also shows that liquidity conditions are gradually improving.

Overall, these factors indicate that the supply of Bitcoin is still strong, so there is little possibility of a major supply shock in the next year. Instead, the report believes that the market will achieve moderate growth within the established 4-year cycle framework. Do you agree with this view? Leave a message in the comment area to discuss!

#比特币 #供应冲击 #市场分析

📊Bitcoin financing rate has dropped sharply, is market activity cooling down?

Bitcoin's financing rate has plummeted recently, which is a bit panicking! Once the price drops, those important on-chain indicators also slump, which is annoying to watch. If this situation continues, the price of Bitcoin is estimated to go down all the way.

We all know that the upward trend of financing rates indicates that the demand in the futures market is strong and the price is likely to rise. But now the financing rate has dropped sharply, which means that everyone is not so confident in Bitcoin. At the same time, those traders have become cautious, and the demand in the derivatives market has also weakened. If there is no such momentum to push up, the upward trend of Bitcoin will be suspended.

When Bitcoin rose before, the financing rate rose quite sharply, but now it has begun to retreat from the $108,000 position, and the financing rate has also fallen. This means that traders' enthusiasm for the market has waned, capital is not so actively flowing in, and the bullish momentum is weak. It will be difficult for Bitcoin to continue to go up.

Moreover, the current financing rate situation reflects the market's hesitation. The key is that the key point of $108,000 has not been broken. If Bitcoin is unable to hold $90,000, the situation is worrying. After investors' confidence is frustrated, the selling pressure will increase sharply, and the price will most likely continue to fall to test the lower Fibonacci level and psychological threshold. On the contrary, if the financing rate can rebound with the increase in purchasing power, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize and resume its upward trend, and the market's bullish sentiment is also expected to rekindle.

In addition to the financing rate, the unrealized profit rate of Bitcoin chain traders is also declining, which is not good. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that Bitcoin prices rose so sharply before, and it is normal to fall now. However, traders believe that the actual support price is $88,000, and the price at that time was $93,000. If it continues to adjust, the profit space in this round will become smaller and smaller.

What do you think of the recent sharp decline in the financing rate in the Bitcoin market? Do you think the Bitcoin market is about to change, or is it just a temporary fluctuation? Leave your opinions and views in the comment area!

#比特币 #市场分析 #融资利率 #链上指标 #心理支撑位

💰The U.S. Department of Justice has been approved to sell Silk Road's Bitcoin reserves, is a market sell-off coming?

Recently, there is a topic that has attracted a lot of attention in the cryptocurrency circle, that is, the fate of Silk Road's Bitcoin reserves. The U.S. Department of Justice was approved on January 8 to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin it confiscated in the Silk Road investigation. Many people began to worry that such a large amount of Bitcoin flowing into the market would cause market turmoil.

However, CryptoQuant's analysis brought us some comfort. They believe that if these Bitcoins are gradually sold through over-the-counter (OTC) counters, the impact on the market should be controllable. In other words, this method of sale is unlikely to have an adverse impact on the market.

In addition, the total market value of Bitcoin has increased by $381.7 billion in the past year, which is far more than the $6.5 billion that is about to be sold. So, although there may be some impact in the short term, the impact of these reserves does not seem to be that great in the context of the growth of the entire market.

Although the gradual sale of Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) counters can help maintain market stability in the short term, if a large amount of Bitcoin is sold directly on the spot market, it may cause significant price fluctuations.

CryptoQuant also mentioned an important case: Looking back at July 2024, the German government sold 50,000 BTC, which undoubtedly brought a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, how the US Department of Justice handles the sale of this batch of Bitcoin will greatly affect whether the market will experience negative fluctuations in the short term.

However, there is also a view that even if the US Department of Justice chooses to sell a large number of Bitcoins through cryptocurrency exchanges, the current indicators on the chain still show that the market fundamentals are solid.

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju on January 7, the obvious demand for Bitcoin remains high. As long as capital continues to flow into the market, Bitcoin will maintain an upward trend, indicating that the actual market value of Bitcoin is currently at its highest level.

In summary, the sale of Silk Road Bitcoin reserves has indeed attracted widespread attention, but from a long-term perspective, the stability of the Bitcoin market is unlikely to be significantly impacted.What do you think?

#比特币 #丝绸之路 #市场分析

🤔 On-chain indicators show signs of accumulation by long-term holders, but analysts have differing views on market trends

Recently, Bitcoin prices have shown a moderate upward trend, and the group of long-term holders has gradually increased their holdings. On-chain analysis expert Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that despite continuous market volatility, the supply of Bitcoin by long-term holders is indeed on the rise. This phenomenon may indicate that Bitcoin prices are about to experience a new round of significant increases, reminiscent of historical bullish markets.

Currently, over 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit, and market sentiment is generally positive. In the absence of obvious adverse factors, the market is expected to welcome a bullish trend similar to that of 2017.

Although Bitcoin prices have recently retraced, raising doubts about the bullish outlook, there is no need to worry excessively. Many investors remain optimistic, and Bitcoin's trading volume has even increased by nearly 31% in the past 24 hours, indicating that market activity is still strong.

However, according to cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, this recent drop in Bitcoin prices might lead to a bearish head and shoulders pattern. He pointed out that Bitcoin has broken below the previously established support line between $95,400 and $98,400, where approximately 1.8 million addresses purchased over 1.5 million Bitcoins.

Therefore, he believes that $92,000 is a very important support level moving forward, and if it breaks below this price, Bitcoin could further decline to $74,000, as there has been rapid price increases since the U.S. elections, with relatively few support levels before the $74,000 mark.

💬 What are everyone's views on the upcoming trends for Bitcoin? If it were you, would you choose to increase, decrease, or hold your position at this stage?

#比特币 #加密货币 #投资趋势 #市场分析 #长期持有者

Some people are interested in establishing a long position at this price. It is recommended to observe the performance of BbTtCc and the entire market before entering the market. Attempting to "bottom-fish" based on subjective assumptions is often risky.

账户内所有文章目录，点击即达，干货满满

$FIRO


$STEEM


$STPT


#市场分析 #风险

This 1D temperature map is more intuitive. The market began to rebound on November 5, rebounding until December 8, then a sharp drop for one day, followed by a gradual decline until December 22. It rebounded for two days before Christmas and then remained sluggish until January 1. On January 1, it rebounded to today #市场分析 .

Speculations on BTC's Subsequent Trends

Since January 2:
The liquidity in the crypto market has continued to improve, with the supply of USDT and USDC increasing by 1.7 billion;
Bitcoin ETF purchases have strongly recovered, with net inflows for four indicative Bitcoin ETFs—FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC—amounting to $108 million and $650 million respectively over the last two trading days;

US purchases have also seen some recovery, with the Bitcoin discount on Coinbase nearly disappearing.

Due to optimistic expectations surrounding Trump's upcoming inauguration, positive factors have dominated the crypto market recently, making it likely for BTC to continue rising in the short term.

However, since December 31, the trading volume of $BTC has been relatively low, which indicates that current buying power is not strong enough, making a direct and effective breakout above the previous high unlikely.

Therefore, it is highly probable that there will be continued growth in the short term, with a potential pullback around January 20.

#比特币减半狂欢夜 #市场分析

On Saturday and Sunday, on-chain data shows

(1) BTC has slightly flowed out of exchanges, especially there has been no increase in BTC within Binance
(2) Stablecoins have not flowed out

The market is still healthy, the decline in December is a 3-week adjustment in the bull market continuation, with two trends in on-chain data

(1) BTC continues to flow out of exchanges
(2) Stablecoins have not seen large-scale outflows, maintaining a constant amount

On the last day of last week, ETF inflows reached $900 million, and this week, as traditional funds continue to buy BTC in large amounts through ETFs, BTC will return to $100,000

On Friday, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be announced

If there are not many jobs and unemployment is high, then BTC will accelerate back to the peak
Combined with Trump's election on January 20, there will be a big wave
Doge is expected to return to its peak

This week, Uni's public chain will welcome more news
Uni's first target is around $20, medium-term is $25, and long-term is above $30

ETH is expected to return to $4000, but the strength is not very strong
BNB will challenge $800 this week

#市场分析

Meme Exit Logic

1. Market Capitalization: The market capitalization nodes for a 'Tu Gou' (local dog) are 1m, 5m, 10m, 50m, and 100m. These can be considered as exit nodes.

2. Transactions: For on-chain projects, the short-term transaction volume has its limits. For a 'Tu G' project, when the daily transaction volume is between 5-10m, it has essentially reached the limit of short-term capital influx. (Depending on overall liquidity & sentiment, check how much trading volume top-tier MEMEs have; this can serve as a benchmark)

#市场分析

🧐 Ethereum Trading Sentiment Optimistic, Is $4000 Within Reach?

With the general price rebound in the cryptocurrency market expected in 2025, Ethereum has surged over 10% in the past week. Trends in investor activity data indicate that bullish sentiment is rising, and prices are expected to continue increasing in the short term.

In a Quicktake post by CryptoQuant, market analyst ShayanBTC suggested that the Ethereum market may experience further price increases based on the Taker buy/sell ratio. The Taker buy/sell ratio is an important trading indicator that measures the balance between aggressive buying and selling in the futures market.

This ratio is typically used to gauge market sentiment, showing whether buyers or sellers are more active in market orders. A ratio above 1 indicates buyer dominance, while a ratio below 1 indicates significant selling pressure. As Ethereum rebounds from above $3000, this ratio has recorded a substantial increase in market buy orders, suggesting traders anticipate a price rise in the short term.

If Ethereum bulls can maintain the current upward trend, prices are expected to return to $4000, which is also its next significant resistance level. ShayanBTC noted that to confirm a bullish trend, the Taker buy/sell ratio must be above 1, indicating that buyers are in control of the market.

Additionally, cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe analyzed that the altcoin market recently retested previous key support levels. However, with the full arrival of altcoin season, these altcoins are currently in a bullish uptrend.

At the same time, as expectations for the current bull market cycle continue to rise, van de Poppe also predicts that the market capitalization of altcoins may reach a valuation of $2 trillion during altcoin season.

As the largest altcoin by market capitalization, Ethereum is likely to play a significant role in stimulating and guiding the bullish momentum of the altcoin market during this period.

Currently, Ethereum's trading price is $3609, with a 24-hour gain of 0.61%, but daily trading volume has decreased by 26.14% to $15.69 billion.

In summary, as market sentiment warms, investors are filled with anticipation about the possibility of breaking through the $4000 barrier. The upcoming market direction is worth our widespread attention.

What are your thoughts on Ethereum's upcoming trend? Do you believe Ethereum can drive the potential prosperity of the entire altcoin market?

#以太坊 #加密货币 #山寨币季节 #市场分析

ALT is listed on#Binanceand has increased by 5200%, reaching as high as $0.33!

Tracking the addresses on the chain, here are some findings

The total amount of $ALT is 10B, and the circulating supply is 1.1B

1/The top ten currency holding addresses hold a total of 9,915,694,531 $ALT , accounting for 99.15% of the total!

2/Addresses tagged#Binancehold a total of 277,842,597 $ALT , accounting for 25.2% of the circulating supply. Binance may become the largest banker in $ALT !

3/The 13th currency holding address is the largest airdrop address and has not been transferred yet!

4/sungjae.eth is an airdrop hunter who received 421,187 $ALT airdrops! Deposited 20k $ALT into#Binance2 hours ago!

If you are interested in airdrops, you can use them as tracking objects!
#ALT#Binance #市场分析

#币安7周年 #BTC下跌分析 #市场分析
Recent data shows that from July 3 to date, more than 70,000 bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges, worth about $4 billion.

It is worth noting that in the context of the German government's continued selling and the market in panic, there are still large funds quietly increasing their holdings.

This phenomenon may mean several things:

The price of Bitcoin may have bottomed out, and large institutional investors are seizing the opportunity to expand their holdings, expecting a rebound in the future.

These large investors may remain confident in the long-term value of Bitcoin and are taking the opportunity to increase their investments.

Even in a market downturn, there are still funds looking for value investment opportunities and looking forward to the long-term development of Bitcoin.

The quiet increase in holdings by large funds may indicate that the market is looking for signs of bottoming out. However, we still need to pay close attention to future market trends and policy changes to better judge the medium- and long-term direction of Bitcoin. $BTC

Detailed explanation of July non-farm payrolls, must read!!!
Today's non-farm payrolls report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders began to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, far below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% last month to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed, with hourly wages rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

After the data was released, U.S. stock futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling by more than 2%, S&P 500 futures falling by 1.6%, and Dow futures falling by 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 19 basis points to 3.79% at one point, and the U.S. dollar index also fell.

Despite the strong performance of the labor market in the past two years, it now seems that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further. Clark Bellin, chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, said that the Fed must cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further.

The rise in unemployment has triggered the Sam rule, an indicator that has predicted recessions with 100% accuracy since 1970. But some analysts believe that this does not necessarily mean that the economy has entered a recession, but is just an early warning sign that the economy will weaken further.

In terms of employment structure, employment in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing continued to increase in July, but the information industry lost 20,000 jobs. Government employment growth slowed down, and other major industries did not change much.

#就业数据 #经济衰退 #市场分析 #美联储何时降息？ #降息预测

🚀 Bitcoin's road to a new high is blocked, and analysts tell you the reasons behind it!

🧐 Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering between $55,000 and $65,000, and it seems a bit difficult to break through the $70,000 mark. So, analysts from IntoTheBlock gave some interesting insights!

📉 Why is it difficult for the price to break through? The reason is that many Bitcoin traders bought BTC in the price range of $61,700 to $70,500, but now the price is around $56,500, which means they are all losing money. So, if the price rises back to this range, there may be a lot of people who want to sell quickly to reduce losses or at least break even.

🔄 Therefore, analysts from IntoTheBlock said that whenever a large number of traders lose money, the price of Bitcoin will face selling pressure when it approaches their purchase level, which is why Bitcoin has difficulty breaking through this price range!

📊 What does historical data say? Historically, September is usually not a good month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has fallen in September in six of the past seven years, with an average drop of 4.5%. Moreover, September this year did not start well, with the price falling from $60,000 to $55,000.

🌐 At the same time, analysts also mentioned some other factors that may affect the price of Bitcoin, such as market consolidation after Bitcoin halving, uncertainty in the US election, large amounts of Bitcoin held by the government, and the upcoming asset distribution to Mt. Gox creditors.

🐋 Despite the challenges, Bitcoin's on-chain data shows positive signs. The number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC has reached a 17-month high, which means that large investors are buying on dips and may be preparing for a rebound at the end of the year.

💬 What do you think about the current market conditions and future trends of Bitcoin? Do you think Bitcoin can break through the current resistance and set new highs after the interest rate cut in September? Leave your insights in the comment section!

#比特币 #市场分析 #加密货币趋势 #IntoTheBlock