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Web3 version of 'Egg Distribution': Polymarket vs Kalshi offline battle
The competition in the prediction market has shifted from on-chain probabilities to offline supermarkets.
Recently, Polymarket and Kalshi staged a real-life 'battle for people' in New York — delivering groceries, opening free supermarkets, and donating meals, bringing the traffic war to the community doorstep.
This is not an airdrop; this is real-world 'egg marketing'.🥚
🛒 One, free groceries have become a customer acquisition weapon
🎁 Kalshi: A few blocks away in Manhattan
In early February, Kalshi held a free offline event in Manhattan, distributing food groceries worth 50 USD to thousands of people.
Social media videos show the line extending for several blocks, with excitement on-site comparable to the release of limited edition sneakers. The number of registrants is close to two thousand, and the media reports 'thousands participated'.
Recently, Polymarket and Kalshi staged a real-life 'battle for people' in New York — delivering groceries, opening free supermarkets, and donating meals, bringing the traffic war to the community doorstep.
This is not an airdrop; this is real-world 'egg marketing'.🥚
🛒 One, free groceries have become a customer acquisition weapon
🎁 Kalshi: A few blocks away in Manhattan
In early February, Kalshi held a free offline event in Manhattan, distributing food groceries worth 50 USD to thousands of people.
Social media videos show the line extending for several blocks, with excitement on-site comparable to the release of limited edition sneakers. The number of registrants is close to two thousand, and the media reports 'thousands participated'.
Project Weekly | Brazil plans to build a Bitcoin strategic reserve, Ethereum's weekly trading volume hits a historical high.
🟠 Bitcoin sector.
🇧🇷 Brazil plans to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Market rumors indicate that Brazil has reintroduced a bill to establish a national-level Bitcoin strategic reserve, with a maximum purchase of 1 million BTC.
If the bill passes, it will mean that sovereign nations are officially participating in long-term Bitcoin reserve planning, further heating up the global trend of 'national coin hoarding'.
🏢 Public companies continue to increase their holdings.
Crypto companies listed in the US increased their holdings by 841 BTC in Q4 2025, bringing their total holdings to 15,389 BTC, ranking in the top ten for global corporate Bitcoin holdings. 📈
🇧🇷 Brazil plans to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Market rumors indicate that Brazil has reintroduced a bill to establish a national-level Bitcoin strategic reserve, with a maximum purchase of 1 million BTC.
If the bill passes, it will mean that sovereign nations are officially participating in long-term Bitcoin reserve planning, further heating up the global trend of 'national coin hoarding'.
🏢 Public companies continue to increase their holdings.
Crypto companies listed in the US increased their holdings by 841 BTC in Q4 2025, bringing their total holdings to 15,389 BTC, ranking in the top ten for global corporate Bitcoin holdings. 📈
February 14 | Midday Key Highlights ☀️
🔹 Grayscale Emphasizes Zcash's Privacy Technology Features
Grayscale points out that the most interesting aspect of Zcash is its 'selective disclosure',
highlighting its technical advantages in balancing privacy and compliance.
🔹 Dubai Releases Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework FAQ
The Dubai Financial Services Authority has released an FAQ document on the cryptocurrency regulatory framework,
providing clearer compliance guidance for market participants.
🔹 Russia's Daily Cryptocurrency Trading Volume Approximately $650 Million
Russian officials revealed that the daily average cryptocurrency trading volume in Russia is approximately $650 million,
indicating the market activity in Russia remains high.
🔹 Dollar Short Positions Rise to Highest Level Since June
CFTC data shows that speculators have increased dollar short positions
to the highest level since June,
reflecting a weakening market expectation for the dollar's trend.
🔹 Stalemate on the CLARITY Act Continues
The stalemate on the CLARITY Act has reached a fever pitch,
with both banks and the cryptocurrency industry holding firm positions,
the legislative standoff remains unresolved.
🔹 Dutch House of Representatives Advances 36% Tax Bill
The Dutch House of Representatives is advancing the controversial 36% tax bill,
which applies to cryptocurrencies,
raising tax burden concerns within the industry.
🔹 U.S. Senator Calls for Investigation into UAE Holdings
A U.S. senator has requested the Foreign Investment Committee to investigate
the UAE's reported holdings in the Trump family's cryptocurrency company,
raising scrutiny over the connections between politics and business.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Privacy technology receives institutional endorsement, Dubai's regulatory guidance is implemented, Russia's market activity remains high, dollar short positions reach new highs, the CLARITY Act stalemate continues, the Netherlands advances cryptocurrency taxation, and a U.S. senator calls for a review of overseas holdings, with the market developing along multiple lines amidst intertwining regulation, policy, and geopolitical factors.
🔹 Grayscale Emphasizes Zcash's Privacy Technology Features
Grayscale points out that the most interesting aspect of Zcash is its 'selective disclosure',
highlighting its technical advantages in balancing privacy and compliance.
🔹 Dubai Releases Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework FAQ
The Dubai Financial Services Authority has released an FAQ document on the cryptocurrency regulatory framework,
providing clearer compliance guidance for market participants.
🔹 Russia's Daily Cryptocurrency Trading Volume Approximately $650 Million
Russian officials revealed that the daily average cryptocurrency trading volume in Russia is approximately $650 million,
indicating the market activity in Russia remains high.
🔹 Dollar Short Positions Rise to Highest Level Since June
CFTC data shows that speculators have increased dollar short positions
to the highest level since June,
reflecting a weakening market expectation for the dollar's trend.
🔹 Stalemate on the CLARITY Act Continues
The stalemate on the CLARITY Act has reached a fever pitch,
with both banks and the cryptocurrency industry holding firm positions,
the legislative standoff remains unresolved.
🔹 Dutch House of Representatives Advances 36% Tax Bill
The Dutch House of Representatives is advancing the controversial 36% tax bill,
which applies to cryptocurrencies,
raising tax burden concerns within the industry.
🔹 U.S. Senator Calls for Investigation into UAE Holdings
A U.S. senator has requested the Foreign Investment Committee to investigate
the UAE's reported holdings in the Trump family's cryptocurrency company,
raising scrutiny over the connections between politics and business.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Privacy technology receives institutional endorsement, Dubai's regulatory guidance is implemented, Russia's market activity remains high, dollar short positions reach new highs, the CLARITY Act stalemate continues, the Netherlands advances cryptocurrency taxation, and a U.S. senator calls for a review of overseas holdings, with the market developing along multiple lines amidst intertwining regulation, policy, and geopolitical factors.
Before buying the dip, first distinguish these two types of drawdowns
Market declines are not all of the same 'flavor'.
If you can't clarify the nature of the drawdown, what is called 'buying the dip' may just be catching a falling knife.
In financial theory, risk is usually divided into two categories: systemic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Corresponding to investment practice, drawdowns can also be divided into two completely different types.
1. Systemic drawdown: market issues 🌪️
This drawdown comes from the shock of the overall environment — macroeconomics, liquidity contraction, financial system risks, etc.
Regardless of whether the company is good or bad, most stocks will be dragged down.
Typical characteristics:
If you can't clarify the nature of the drawdown, what is called 'buying the dip' may just be catching a falling knife.
In financial theory, risk is usually divided into two categories: systemic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Corresponding to investment practice, drawdowns can also be divided into two completely different types.
1. Systemic drawdown: market issues 🌪️
This drawdown comes from the shock of the overall environment — macroeconomics, liquidity contraction, financial system risks, etc.
Regardless of whether the company is good or bad, most stocks will be dragged down.
Typical characteristics:
February 14｜Overnight Key Highlights 🌙
🔹 U.S. January CPI data falls short of expectations
U.S. January CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations,
inflationary pressures have eased, reinforcing rate cut expectations.
🔹 Grayscale submits AAVE ETF application
Grayscale has submitted the S-1 filing for the AAVE ETF to the SEC,
adding a new option to DeFi-themed ETF products.
🔹 Federal Reserve plans to appoint bank lawyer as Director of Regulatory Affairs
The Federal Reserve plans to appoint Wall Street bank lawyer Quinn as the Director of Regulatory Affairs,
which has raised concerns about personnel adjustments in regulatory senior management.
🔹 SEC to introduce 'Disclosure Day' reforms
The SEC will launch a series of 'Disclosure Day' reforms,
focusing on cryptocurrency asset regulation, with information disclosure rules expected to be optimized.
🔹 Goldman Sachs maintains expectation of two rate cuts this year
Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year,
the next rate cut may occur in June, and the path to easing is becoming clearer.
🔹 Trump Media files for two more cryptocurrency ETFs
Trump Media Group has filed for two more cryptocurrency ETFs,
covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cronos,
continuing to expand its product matrix.
🔹 Binance responds to employee assisting investigation incident in France
He Yi stated that Binance's employees in France and their families are currently safe,
and are actively cooperating with law enforcement,
the market is paying attention to related developments.
📌 Summary in one sentence:
CPI data below expectations boosts rate cut bets, Grayscale and Trump Media double down on ETF layout, SEC advances information disclosure reform, Binance's incident in France is under scrutiny, and the market maintains a game amidst macro positives and localized turbulence.
🔹 U.S. January CPI data falls short of expectations
U.S. January CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations,
inflationary pressures have eased, reinforcing rate cut expectations.
🔹 Grayscale submits AAVE ETF application
Grayscale has submitted the S-1 filing for the AAVE ETF to the SEC,
adding a new option to DeFi-themed ETF products.
🔹 Federal Reserve plans to appoint bank lawyer as Director of Regulatory Affairs
The Federal Reserve plans to appoint Wall Street bank lawyer Quinn as the Director of Regulatory Affairs,
which has raised concerns about personnel adjustments in regulatory senior management.
🔹 SEC to introduce 'Disclosure Day' reforms
The SEC will launch a series of 'Disclosure Day' reforms,
focusing on cryptocurrency asset regulation, with information disclosure rules expected to be optimized.
🔹 Goldman Sachs maintains expectation of two rate cuts this year
Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year,
the next rate cut may occur in June, and the path to easing is becoming clearer.
🔹 Trump Media files for two more cryptocurrency ETFs
Trump Media Group has filed for two more cryptocurrency ETFs,
covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cronos,
continuing to expand its product matrix.
🔹 Binance responds to employee assisting investigation incident in France
He Yi stated that Binance's employees in France and their families are currently safe,
and are actively cooperating with law enforcement,
the market is paying attention to related developments.
📌 Summary in one sentence:
CPI data below expectations boosts rate cut bets, Grayscale and Trump Media double down on ETF layout, SEC advances information disclosure reform, Binance's incident in France is under scrutiny, and the market maintains a game amidst macro positives and localized turbulence.
Why is BTC declining instead of rising amidst the acceleration of devaluation trade? A deep dive analysis
Against the backdrop of the continuous strengthening of the fiat currency devaluation logic, gold, silver, and emerging market currencies have collectively strengthened, but Bitcoin has experienced a phased correction. This 'divergence' has left many investors puzzled.
On the surface, it appears to be a price issue, but fundamentally it is a structural problem. Breaking it down, the core logic is not complicated.
1. Devaluation trade accelerates, but funds do not flow synchronously to BTC 💰
The so-called 'devaluation trade' has a clear core logic:
Government debt expansion → Decrease in monetary purchasing power → Capital flows to supply-scarce assets
Since the global easing cycle in 2020, Bitcoin has become one of the best-performing assets, with an increase of nearly 10 times. It is essentially a:
On the surface, it appears to be a price issue, but fundamentally it is a structural problem. Breaking it down, the core logic is not complicated.
1. Devaluation trade accelerates, but funds do not flow synchronously to BTC 💰
The so-called 'devaluation trade' has a clear core logic:
Government debt expansion → Decrease in monetary purchasing power → Capital flows to supply-scarce assets
Since the global easing cycle in 2020, Bitcoin has become one of the best-performing assets, with an increase of nearly 10 times. It is essentially a:
Stablecoins are becoming Asia's new financial infrastructure
Freelance developers coding in Lahore and domestic workers striving in Manila now only need a smartphone to complete cross-border transfers that previously relied on banking systems.
There is no need to bear high wire transfer fees or wait for days for funds to arrive; stablecoins enable low-cost, almost real-time global movement of funds. This real and necessary scenario is driving Asia to become one of the most active regions for cryptocurrency adoption in the world 🚀
📊 Why is Asia leading the world in adoption?
Even in a relatively cautious regulatory environment with high tax burdens, the inflow of cryptocurrency funds in Asia remains strong. Data shows that India has ranked among the top in the global cryptocurrency adoption index for several years, with a massive inflow of funds.
There is no need to bear high wire transfer fees or wait for days for funds to arrive; stablecoins enable low-cost, almost real-time global movement of funds. This real and necessary scenario is driving Asia to become one of the most active regions for cryptocurrency adoption in the world 🚀
📊 Why is Asia leading the world in adoption?
Even in a relatively cautious regulatory environment with high tax burdens, the inflow of cryptocurrency funds in Asia remains strong. Data shows that India has ranked among the top in the global cryptocurrency adoption index for several years, with a massive inflow of funds.
February 13｜Midday Key Highlights ☀️
🔹 South Korea to Strengthen Cryptocurrency Market Regulation
The South Korean finance minister stated that monitoring of the cryptocurrency market will be strengthened,
and seeks systematic improvements to prevent market anxiety from spreading.
🔹 Federal Reserve Document Suggests Independent Margin Weight for Crypto Derivatives
The Federal Reserve working paper proposed classifying crypto assets as an independent asset class,
and suggested setting independent risk weights for "floating" crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as stablecoins,
to be used for initial margin requirements in the non-centrally cleared derivatives market.
🔹 London Stock Exchange Group Plans On-Chain Settlement Service
LSEG plans to launch an on-chain settlement system for institutional investors,
supporting the trading and settlement of tokenized bonds, stocks, and private market assets,
with a target delivery date of 2026, pending regulatory approval.
🔹 JPMorgan Bearish on Two-Year U.S. Treasury
JPMorgan strategists recommend selling two-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" move,
arguing that the outlook for U.S. economic growth remains resilient,
which will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates.
🔹 Indiana Advances Bill for State Retirement Fund to Invest in Cryptocurrency
The Indiana Senate committee is advancing Bill HB1042,
which allows the state retirement fund to invest in cryptocurrency.
🔹 Bitcoin Codebase Adds Quantum Threat Mitigation Proposal
Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-360 has been added to the official codebase,
introducing the Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type,
aimed at enhancing Bitcoin's defense against quantum computing threats through a soft fork.
📌 One-Sentence Summary:
South Korea strengthens regulation, the Federal Reserve advances derivatives risk control framework, LSEG plans on-chain settlement, JPMorgan is bearish on U.S. Treasuries, Indiana promotes retirement fund entry, Bitcoin codebase welcomes quantum upgrades— the market continues to evolve amidst the intertwining of regulation, institutions, and technological innovation.
🔹 South Korea to Strengthen Cryptocurrency Market Regulation
The South Korean finance minister stated that monitoring of the cryptocurrency market will be strengthened,
and seeks systematic improvements to prevent market anxiety from spreading.
🔹 Federal Reserve Document Suggests Independent Margin Weight for Crypto Derivatives
The Federal Reserve working paper proposed classifying crypto assets as an independent asset class,
and suggested setting independent risk weights for "floating" crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as stablecoins,
to be used for initial margin requirements in the non-centrally cleared derivatives market.
🔹 London Stock Exchange Group Plans On-Chain Settlement Service
LSEG plans to launch an on-chain settlement system for institutional investors,
supporting the trading and settlement of tokenized bonds, stocks, and private market assets,
with a target delivery date of 2026, pending regulatory approval.
🔹 JPMorgan Bearish on Two-Year U.S. Treasury
JPMorgan strategists recommend selling two-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" move,
arguing that the outlook for U.S. economic growth remains resilient,
which will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates.
🔹 Indiana Advances Bill for State Retirement Fund to Invest in Cryptocurrency
The Indiana Senate committee is advancing Bill HB1042,
which allows the state retirement fund to invest in cryptocurrency.
🔹 Bitcoin Codebase Adds Quantum Threat Mitigation Proposal
Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-360 has been added to the official codebase,
introducing the Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type,
aimed at enhancing Bitcoin's defense against quantum computing threats through a soft fork.
📌 One-Sentence Summary:
South Korea strengthens regulation, the Federal Reserve advances derivatives risk control framework, LSEG plans on-chain settlement, JPMorgan is bearish on U.S. Treasuries, Indiana promotes retirement fund entry, Bitcoin codebase welcomes quantum upgrades— the market continues to evolve amidst the intertwining of regulation, institutions, and technological innovation.
Massive Deleveraging: Crypto Winter or Ultimate Bear Trap?
The charts are a sea of red, with the 'Fear and Greed Index' plunging into extreme territory.
Bitcoin has given back its gains for the year, while Ethereum continues to weaken.
Sentiment on social media has shifted from 'Uptober' to 'Is it over?'
But this time, is it really just an emotional collapse? Or is it a deeper structural reshuffling?🧩
Let's break it down.
💧 The real core: it's not about faith, but liquidity
This round of decline is essentially not about 'faith collapse', but about liquidity repricing.
📊 Strong U.S. employment data suppresses interest rate cut expectations
💵 The dollar index is strengthening, putting pressure on risk assets
Bitcoin has given back its gains for the year, while Ethereum continues to weaken.
Sentiment on social media has shifted from 'Uptober' to 'Is it over?'
But this time, is it really just an emotional collapse? Or is it a deeper structural reshuffling?🧩
Let's break it down.
💧 The real core: it's not about faith, but liquidity
This round of decline is essentially not about 'faith collapse', but about liquidity repricing.
📊 Strong U.S. employment data suppresses interest rate cut expectations
💵 The dollar index is strengthening, putting pressure on risk assets
February 13｜Overnight Key Highlights 🌙
🔹 The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates slightly
Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 227,000,
indicating a stable labor market.
🔹 SEC Chairman says predictive markets pose regulatory challenges
The SEC Chairman stated that predictive markets have become a "huge issue" for regulation,
focusing on compliance and consumer protection issues.
🔹 Musk's AI confirms X Money may integrate BTC
Musk's Grok AI confirmed that X Money is considering integrating Bitcoin,
moving further in the exploration of crypto payments on large social platforms.
🔹 Industry insiders say there is still huge space for crypto adoption
CZ stated that centralized and decentralized trading platforms are expected to coexist in the long term,
and pointed out that the current global crypto adoption depth may be less than 1%,
indicating that the industry is still in the early penetration stage.
🔹 Ethereum founder emphasizes product first
Vitalik commented on the Fileverse token incentives, stating that
crypto applications should focus on refining actual usable products,
rather than overly relying on token mechanisms.
📌 One-sentence summary:
The SEC focuses on regulating predictive markets, the crypto adoption rate remains low, industry leaders call for a return to product essence, and the market continues to evolve amid business adjustments and long-term construction.
🔹 The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates slightly
Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 227,000,
indicating a stable labor market.
🔹 SEC Chairman says predictive markets pose regulatory challenges
The SEC Chairman stated that predictive markets have become a "huge issue" for regulation,
focusing on compliance and consumer protection issues.
🔹 Musk's AI confirms X Money may integrate BTC
Musk's Grok AI confirmed that X Money is considering integrating Bitcoin,
moving further in the exploration of crypto payments on large social platforms.
🔹 Industry insiders say there is still huge space for crypto adoption
CZ stated that centralized and decentralized trading platforms are expected to coexist in the long term,
and pointed out that the current global crypto adoption depth may be less than 1%,
indicating that the industry is still in the early penetration stage.
🔹 Ethereum founder emphasizes product first
Vitalik commented on the Fileverse token incentives, stating that
crypto applications should focus on refining actual usable products,
rather than overly relying on token mechanisms.
📌 One-sentence summary:
The SEC focuses on regulating predictive markets, the crypto adoption rate remains low, industry leaders call for a return to product essence, and the market continues to evolve amid business adjustments and long-term construction.
What are the three major prerequisites for the crypto circle to enter a bull market again?
A friend asked, why must the next bull market meet three conditions?
It can actually be broken down into a structural judgment:
A bull market is never just about 'price going up', but rather - the simultaneous resonance of funds, narratives, and liquidity structure.
Looking back at the past two major cycles (2017, 2020-2021), the pattern is very clear.
At least three prerequisites must be met.
1. Global liquidity is being loosened again 💵
Without money, no narrative can be ignited.
There are only a few core variables:
Is there a clear interest rate cut cycle?
Is the yield on US Treasuries trending down?
Is the US dollar index weakening?
It can actually be broken down into a structural judgment:
A bull market is never just about 'price going up', but rather - the simultaneous resonance of funds, narratives, and liquidity structure.
Looking back at the past two major cycles (2017, 2020-2021), the pattern is very clear.
At least three prerequisites must be met.
1. Global liquidity is being loosened again 💵
Without money, no narrative can be ignited.
There are only a few core variables:
Is there a clear interest rate cut cycle?
Is the yield on US Treasuries trending down?
Is the US dollar index weakening?
China's New Cryptocurrency Regulations: Favorable or Unfavorable?
In the past few days, whether it is practitioners in the cryptocurrency industry or financial institutions in mainland China, there has been a high frequency of interpretations of the two major documents released on February 6. One emphasizes the overall framework for risk prevention, while the other provides regulatory guidelines for the issuance of securitized tokens overseas. The only question that the market is most concerned about is: Is this a relaxation or a tightening?
The overall judgment can be summarized in one sentence—favorable, but the benefits are limited.📌
1. This is a regulatory structure of 'principle + exception'
First, let's look at the logical framework.
The document on risk prevention for virtual currencies is a 'principle', the regulatory baseline; while the guidelines for the issuance of securitized tokens are a pilot 'exception' given under a strict framework.
The overall judgment can be summarized in one sentence—favorable, but the benefits are limited.📌
1. This is a regulatory structure of 'principle + exception'
First, let's look at the logical framework.
The document on risk prevention for virtual currencies is a 'principle', the regulatory baseline; while the guidelines for the issuance of securitized tokens are a pilot 'exception' given under a strict framework.
February 12 | Lunch Key Highlights ☀️
🔹 Goldman Sachs Warns Inflation May Disrupt Rate Cut Path
Goldman Sachs warns that inflation risks remain, which may disrupt the Federal Reserve's rate cut path,
market maintains caution regarding policy pace.
🔹 UK Treasury Chooses HSBC Blockchain Platform to Pilot Digital Bonds
The UK Treasury has selected HSBC's blockchain platform to pilot the issuance of digital bonds,
marking an important step in transitioning traditional sovereign bonds to on-chain issuance.
🔹 Digital Asset Officials Predict Tether May Become Top 10 U.S. Treasury Buyer
Bo Hines stated that Tether is expected to become one of the top ten buyers of U.S. Treasuries this year,
reflecting the continued expansion of stablecoin reserves.
🔹 Offshore RMB Breaks Through 6.9 Against the Dollar
The offshore RMB has broken through the 6.9 mark, hitting a new high since April 2023,
the exchange rate remains strong.
🔹 Cardano Founder Reveals Launch Date for Privacy Blockchain
The founder of Cardano stated that the privacy-focused Midnight blockchain
will officially launch next month, further expanding its ecosystem.
🔹 Ethereum Foundation Director Emphasizes Irreplaceability of L1
The director of the Ethereum Foundation stated that currently, no L1 network
can compete with Ethereum in terms of technology and monetary value,
emphasizing its leading position in the public chain ecosystem.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Inflation expectations disrupt the rate cut path, the UK pilots on-chain bonds, offshore RMB continues to strengthen, Cardano's privacy chain is about to launch, Ethereum solidifies its L1 positioning, and the market progresses on multiple fronts in macro, technology, and regulation.
🔹 Goldman Sachs Warns Inflation May Disrupt Rate Cut Path
Goldman Sachs warns that inflation risks remain, which may disrupt the Federal Reserve's rate cut path,
market maintains caution regarding policy pace.
🔹 UK Treasury Chooses HSBC Blockchain Platform to Pilot Digital Bonds
The UK Treasury has selected HSBC's blockchain platform to pilot the issuance of digital bonds,
marking an important step in transitioning traditional sovereign bonds to on-chain issuance.
🔹 Digital Asset Officials Predict Tether May Become Top 10 U.S. Treasury Buyer
Bo Hines stated that Tether is expected to become one of the top ten buyers of U.S. Treasuries this year,
reflecting the continued expansion of stablecoin reserves.
🔹 Offshore RMB Breaks Through 6.9 Against the Dollar
The offshore RMB has broken through the 6.9 mark, hitting a new high since April 2023,
the exchange rate remains strong.
🔹 Cardano Founder Reveals Launch Date for Privacy Blockchain
The founder of Cardano stated that the privacy-focused Midnight blockchain
will officially launch next month, further expanding its ecosystem.
🔹 Ethereum Foundation Director Emphasizes Irreplaceability of L1
The director of the Ethereum Foundation stated that currently, no L1 network
can compete with Ethereum in terms of technology and monetary value,
emphasizing its leading position in the public chain ecosystem.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Inflation expectations disrupt the rate cut path, the UK pilots on-chain bonds, offshore RMB continues to strengthen, Cardano's privacy chain is about to launch, Ethereum solidifies its L1 positioning, and the market progresses on multiple fronts in macro, technology, and regulation.
ARK: The institutionalization process of Bitcoin has entered the 'deep water zone'
Since 2025, Bitcoin has been integrating into the global financial system at an unprecedented speed.
Spot ETF expansion, digital asset companies entering mainstream indices, and a gradually clearer regulatory framework—all of this is driving Bitcoin from 'fringe asset' to 'institutional standard'.
The core changes in this cycle are very clear:
Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'speculative asset' to a 'strategic allocation asset'.
Four main lines are driving this transition👇
🌍 The macro and policy environment reshapes the demand for scarce assets
🏦 ETFs, corporations, and sovereign nations are forming structural holding power
Spot ETF expansion, digital asset companies entering mainstream indices, and a gradually clearer regulatory framework—all of this is driving Bitcoin from 'fringe asset' to 'institutional standard'.
The core changes in this cycle are very clear:
Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'speculative asset' to a 'strategic allocation asset'.
Four main lines are driving this transition👇
🌍 The macro and policy environment reshapes the demand for scarce assets
🏦 ETFs, corporations, and sovereign nations are forming structural holding power
February 12｜Overnight Key Highlights 🌙
🔹 U.S. January Non-Farm Data Exceeds Expectations
The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January,
further surpassing market expectations, highlighting the resilience of the labor market.
🔹 Market Delays Expectations for Fed Rate Cut Timing
Traders have fully priced in a Fed rate cut in July,
delaying from the previously expected June.
🔹 President Trump Praises Non-Farm Data and Reiterates Calls for Rate Cuts
Trump praised the performance of the non-farm data,
again urging the Fed to lower rates to “the lowest in the world.”
🔹 White House Economic Advisor Sees Room for Rate Cuts
White House Economic Advisor Hassett stated,
the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts,
and the expectation for policy easing has not faded due to strong employment data.
🔹 SEC Chair Testifies in Congress Focusing on Digital Asset Regulation
During his testimony in Congress, SEC Chair emphasized
simplifying disclosures, lowering costs, and advancing digital asset regulation,
conveying the direction for modernizing regulation.
🔹 DCG Founder Predicts Privacy Cryptocurrency Asset Penetration Rate
DCG Founder Barry Silbert stated,
there could be 5% to 10% of Bitcoin
flowing into privacy cryptocurrency assets in the future,
which may lead to gradual changes in the industry structure.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Strong non-farm data raises expectations for rate cuts, SEC promotes a digital asset regulatory framework, industry professionals predict increased penetration in privacy sectors, with the market evolving on macro, technical, and structural levels.
🔹 U.S. January Non-Farm Data Exceeds Expectations
The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January,
further surpassing market expectations, highlighting the resilience of the labor market.
🔹 Market Delays Expectations for Fed Rate Cut Timing
Traders have fully priced in a Fed rate cut in July,
delaying from the previously expected June.
🔹 President Trump Praises Non-Farm Data and Reiterates Calls for Rate Cuts
Trump praised the performance of the non-farm data,
again urging the Fed to lower rates to “the lowest in the world.”
🔹 White House Economic Advisor Sees Room for Rate Cuts
White House Economic Advisor Hassett stated,
the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts,
and the expectation for policy easing has not faded due to strong employment data.
🔹 SEC Chair Testifies in Congress Focusing on Digital Asset Regulation
During his testimony in Congress, SEC Chair emphasized
simplifying disclosures, lowering costs, and advancing digital asset regulation,
conveying the direction for modernizing regulation.
🔹 DCG Founder Predicts Privacy Cryptocurrency Asset Penetration Rate
DCG Founder Barry Silbert stated,
there could be 5% to 10% of Bitcoin
flowing into privacy cryptocurrency assets in the future,
which may lead to gradual changes in the industry structure.
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Strong non-farm data raises expectations for rate cuts, SEC promotes a digital asset regulatory framework, industry professionals predict increased penetration in privacy sectors, with the market evolving on macro, technical, and structural levels.
Bear Market Survival Guide: Five Key Actions to Weather the Winter
The crypto market has entered a typical bear market phase.
When the price retraces more than 20% from its peak, the trend has undergone a structural change. A true bear market is not just about the shrinkage of account balances; it is a chain reaction of liquidity contraction, leveraged liquidation, and emotional collapse. Strategies that are effective in a bull market often fail rapidly in a bear market.
At this stage, the primary goal is not how much to earn, but to survive.
The following five principles are the core framework for navigating cycles.
1️⃣ Reduce platform risk, actively manage assets
Each round of bear markets exposes hidden risk points.
When the price retraces more than 20% from its peak, the trend has undergone a structural change. A true bear market is not just about the shrinkage of account balances; it is a chain reaction of liquidity contraction, leveraged liquidation, and emotional collapse. Strategies that are effective in a bull market often fail rapidly in a bear market.
At this stage, the primary goal is not how much to earn, but to survive.
The following five principles are the core framework for navigating cycles.
1️⃣ Reduce platform risk, actively manage assets
Each round of bear markets exposes hidden risk points.
Wall Street has started to 'use chains', will the crypto world be marginalized?
If the hallmark of the previous cycle was that mainstream capital began to 'buy coins';
So this deeper change is that mainstream finance is starting to 'use chains.'
The probing has ended, and a systematic absorption of technology is quietly happening.
In the past year, from stablecoins becoming a practical bridge for institutions to the launch of cross-chain protocols aimed at institutions' independent settlement networks, and collaborations with clearing infrastructure giants, cloud computing platforms, and top market makers... all signs point to one thing:
Blockchain is being embedded in the core arteries of traditional finance.
So this deeper change is that mainstream finance is starting to 'use chains.'
The probing has ended, and a systematic absorption of technology is quietly happening.
In the past year, from stablecoins becoming a practical bridge for institutions to the launch of cross-chain protocols aimed at institutions' independent settlement networks, and collaborations with clearing infrastructure giants, cloud computing platforms, and top market makers... all signs point to one thing:
Blockchain is being embedded in the core arteries of traditional finance.
The underlying logic of Bitcoin’s flash crash: When liquidity begins to shift tracks
Bitcoin dipped from around $90,000 down to below $60,000, then rebounded back to the $70,000 range.
Many people only see price fluctuations but overlook the real forces driving the market.
This is not a single negative event.
This is a rebalancing of the global liquidity structure.
In the past two weeks, several clues have changed simultaneously:
Federal Reserve policy expectations are being repriced 🏛️
Japanese interest rates have entered a new phase 🇯🇵
AI capital expenditure is accelerating across the board 🤖
Gold and silver are experiencing sharp fluctuations 🥇
Looking at each one in isolation seems like local fluctuations.
Put together, this is a change in the direction of funds.
Many people only see price fluctuations but overlook the real forces driving the market.
This is not a single negative event.
This is a rebalancing of the global liquidity structure.
In the past two weeks, several clues have changed simultaneously:
Federal Reserve policy expectations are being repriced 🏛️
Japanese interest rates have entered a new phase 🇯🇵
AI capital expenditure is accelerating across the board 🤖
Gold and silver are experiencing sharp fluctuations 🥇
Looking at each one in isolation seems like local fluctuations.
Put together, this is a change in the direction of funds.
February 11 | Overnight Key Highlights 🌙
🔹 The U.S. President advocates for implementing the lowest interest rates
Trump states that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world,
continuing to call for a loose monetary policy environment.
🔹 Goldman Sachs reveals it holds $2.36 billion in crypto assets
Goldman Sachs discloses it holds $2.36 billion worth of cryptocurrencies,
with the Wall Street giant further clarifying its allocation to digital assets.
🔹 Goldman Sachs CEO believes the macro environment is favorable for risk assets
The CEO of Goldman Sachs states that the macro situation is very favorable for risk assets,
expressing an optimistic attitude towards risk categories including crypto assets.
🔹 Founder of a listed company reiterates they will not sell Bitcoin
The founder of Strategy clearly states that Strategy will not sell Bitcoin,
responding to market concerns about its holding strategy.
🔹 Federal Reserve officials believe there is no urgent need for rate cuts this year
Fed official Hamak indicates that there is no urgent need for rate cuts this year,
with policy expectations tending towards caution.
🔹 Traditional brokerages collaborate with trading platforms to expand futures business
Interactive Brokers collaborates with trading platforms to expand cryptocurrency futures business,
with traditional financial institutions accelerating their layout in the digital asset ecosystem.
🔹 Fed officials are cautiously optimistic about the effects of interest rates
Fed official Logan states they hold a "cautiously optimistic" attitude towards the current effects of interest rates,
but remains vigilant about high inflation risks, keeping a balanced policy stance.
🔹 Industry leaders refute concerns about holdings and express intentions to increase positions
Michael Saylor states that market concerns about Strategy
being forced to sell Bitcoin are unfounded,
and claims he will continue to buy BTC, conveying long-term confidence.
📌 Summary in one sentence:
Goldman Sachs reveals considerable crypto holdings, industry leaders refute concerns about selling and reaffirm intentions to increase positions, traditional brokerages and trading platforms deepen futures cooperation, and the market shows a positive tone in institutional allocation, policy communication, and cooperative expansion.
🔹 The U.S. President advocates for implementing the lowest interest rates
Trump states that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world,
continuing to call for a loose monetary policy environment.
🔹 Goldman Sachs reveals it holds $2.36 billion in crypto assets
Goldman Sachs discloses it holds $2.36 billion worth of cryptocurrencies,
with the Wall Street giant further clarifying its allocation to digital assets.
🔹 Goldman Sachs CEO believes the macro environment is favorable for risk assets
The CEO of Goldman Sachs states that the macro situation is very favorable for risk assets,
expressing an optimistic attitude towards risk categories including crypto assets.
🔹 Founder of a listed company reiterates they will not sell Bitcoin
The founder of Strategy clearly states that Strategy will not sell Bitcoin,
responding to market concerns about its holding strategy.
🔹 Federal Reserve officials believe there is no urgent need for rate cuts this year
Fed official Hamak indicates that there is no urgent need for rate cuts this year,
with policy expectations tending towards caution.
🔹 Traditional brokerages collaborate with trading platforms to expand futures business
Interactive Brokers collaborates with trading platforms to expand cryptocurrency futures business,
with traditional financial institutions accelerating their layout in the digital asset ecosystem.
🔹 Fed officials are cautiously optimistic about the effects of interest rates
Fed official Logan states they hold a "cautiously optimistic" attitude towards the current effects of interest rates,
but remains vigilant about high inflation risks, keeping a balanced policy stance.
🔹 Industry leaders refute concerns about holdings and express intentions to increase positions
Michael Saylor states that market concerns about Strategy
being forced to sell Bitcoin are unfounded,
and claims he will continue to buy BTC, conveying long-term confidence.
📌 Summary in one sentence:
Goldman Sachs reveals considerable crypto holdings, industry leaders refute concerns about selling and reaffirm intentions to increase positions, traditional brokerages and trading platforms deepen futures cooperation, and the market shows a positive tone in institutional allocation, policy communication, and cooperative expansion.
The crypto world needs true long-termism
Recently, there has been an increasing voice:
‘Cryptocurrency non-financial applications are dead’
‘Readable, writable, and ownable (Read · Write · Own) path is no longer feasible’
But these judgments are essentially misdirected, misreading the stage.
The fact is:
We are indeed in the financial era of blockchain 💰
But this has never been the end.
What blockchain truly brings is a brand new underlying capability:
👉 Coordinate people and capital on an internet scale
👉 Write 'ownership' directly into the system
👉 And in the future, can coordinate AI agents 🤖
‘Cryptocurrency non-financial applications are dead’
‘Readable, writable, and ownable (Read · Write · Own) path is no longer feasible’
But these judgments are essentially misdirected, misreading the stage.
The fact is:
We are indeed in the financial era of blockchain 💰
But this has never been the end.
What blockchain truly brings is a brand new underlying capability:
👉 Coordinate people and capital on an internet scale
👉 Write 'ownership' directly into the system
👉 And in the future, can coordinate AI agents 🤖
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