大选
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$PEOPLE $PEOPLE No time to explain, the election is coming, everything is for the people, let's go to 0.1 first, and then break through 0.14 and wait for a piece of news, a big positive line. #大选 1 US dollar bull #美降息25个基点预期升温
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Trump and Joe Rogan in a Three-Hour Interview
Later on Friday, after the two sat down in Rogan's studio in Austin, Texas, the episode of 'The Joe Rogan Experience' was released on YouTube and Spotify. The discussion lasted a long time, leading to a significant delay of a rally that Trump was originally scheduled to hold in Traverse City, Michigan.
Rogan posted on X saying: “YouTube had no problem censoring the episode with Trump. It was supposed to air simultaneously on Spotify and YouTube, but there was a glitch in Spotify's upload system, so we removed the YouTube link until the issue was fixed. It should be fine now.”
Rogan posted on X saying: “YouTube had no problem censoring the episode with Trump. It was supposed to air simultaneously on Spotify and YouTube, but there was a glitch in Spotify's upload system, so we removed the YouTube link until the issue was fixed. It should be fine now.”
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The Federal Reserve predicts Trump will be elected. However, Trump's election will bring higher risks to the U.S. economy. In the end, we will see who will take the position of President of the United States. #大选
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#ETH : Never doubt the ability to achieve ETH through ETFs. This is such a good chip accumulation area, and the dealers are all transitioning to BlackRock, it couldn't be more obvious.
The trend line has little suppressive effect on ETH now, it can be said to be almost ineffective. If the price breaks above the previous high resistance around 2777, it might jump directly to the range of 3137/3196.
Since the large range of 2845/2863-3137/3196 is a long-term key resistance resonance area, if it slows down, it will be blocked within this range. If it is strong, there will be more upward space.
Note: Never doubt the occurrence of unexpected events, take protective measures. The resonance area where it touches the long-term support levels and long-term trend line in the range of 1892/1994 will be a position to catch the unexpected after it happens.
#ETHUSD #以太坊 #交易 #行情
The trend line has little suppressive effect on ETH now, it can be said to be almost ineffective. If the price breaks above the previous high resistance around 2777, it might jump directly to the range of 3137/3196.
Since the large range of 2845/2863-3137/3196 is a long-term key resistance resonance area, if it slows down, it will be blocked within this range. If it is strong, there will be more upward space.
Note: Never doubt the occurrence of unexpected events, take protective measures. The resonance area where it touches the long-term support levels and long-term trend line in the range of 1892/1994 will be a position to catch the unexpected after it happens.
#ETHUSD #以太坊 #交易 #行情
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#BTC
It's short-term, without a trend, just looking at the structure.
The election will be back and forth, no one can say who will win immediately.
Prices will follow the expectations of each state's ballots in a meat grinder game, don't be the one getting chopped.
In other words, the focus is still on the position, as the position determines the strength of the news.
#BTCUSD #比特币 #大选 #交易
It's short-term, without a trend, just looking at the structure.
The election will be back and forth, no one can say who will win immediately.
Prices will follow the expectations of each state's ballots in a meat grinder game, don't be the one getting chopped.
In other words, the focus is still on the position, as the position determines the strength of the news.
#BTCUSD #比特币 #大选 #交易
#BTC
Trading is so easy, you just need to find the right position and keep the rhythm.
You also need to trust your own judgment.
#BTCUSD #交易 #行情分析
Trading is so easy, you just need to find the right position and keep the rhythm.
You also need to trust your own judgment.
#BTCUSD #交易 #行情分析
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The non-farm employment figures were released, far below expectations. The low employment rate indicates that the economy is in a recession, and the decline of US stocks is inevitable. If US stocks continue to fall significantly, then the market will inevitably panic, and BTC won't fare much better. If you interpret the non-farm data release as indicating a recession in the US economy, which leads to a decline in the dollar, and is bullish for BTC, then you might be falling for the data's trap.
Personally, I still see BTC declining. If US stocks continue to fall, the probability of retail investors selling and cutting losses in BTC is quite high. If BTC capital does not sell off in advance, then the entire bullish trend is still supported by capital chips. This is not a rational approach.
On November 5th, the election, if capital is thinking clearly, the probability of selling off in the evening is particularly high, and it is not advisable to chase for more.
Lastly, a reminder: high short operations, 'Short Probe Method', even if capital is not thinking clearly and really pulls up, it still won't trap you.
#行情分析📈 #BTC☀ #大选 #非农就业数据 $BTC
Personally, I still see BTC declining. If US stocks continue to fall, the probability of retail investors selling and cutting losses in BTC is quite high. If BTC capital does not sell off in advance, then the entire bullish trend is still supported by capital chips. This is not a rational approach.
On November 5th, the election, if capital is thinking clearly, the probability of selling off in the evening is particularly high, and it is not advisable to chase for more.
Lastly, a reminder: high short operations, 'Short Probe Method', even if capital is not thinking clearly and really pulls up, it still won't trap you.
#行情分析📈 #BTC☀ #大选 #非农就业数据 $BTC
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What impact will the Fed’s interest rate cut have on ordinary people like us?
Interest rate cuts? What does it have to do with me? Such a profound issue seems to have nothing to do with me?
Generally speaking, if the United States cuts interest rates, the rest of the world will also cut interest rates, and Chinese assets may rise, but this will be affected by policies and external conditions.
1. Declining loan interest rates
Home loan: If you plan to take out a loan to purchase a fixed asset, a rate cut usually means a lower mortgage rate, lower mortgage costs, less monthly interest payments, and a relatively lower cost of buying a home.
Other loans, such as auto loans and credit card interest rates, are also likely to fall. For those with outstanding loans, reduced interest can ease the repayment burden.
Generally speaking, if the United States cuts interest rates, the rest of the world will also cut interest rates, and Chinese assets may rise, but this will be affected by policies and external conditions.
1. Declining loan interest rates
Home loan: If you plan to take out a loan to purchase a fixed asset, a rate cut usually means a lower mortgage rate, lower mortgage costs, less monthly interest payments, and a relatively lower cost of buying a home.
Other loans, such as auto loans and credit card interest rates, are also likely to fall. For those with outstanding loans, reduced interest can ease the repayment burden.
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Cryptocurrency News - The United States wants to dominate the global crypto capital, and opportunities and challenges coexist! 🌎🚀
Highlights of the Express:
• Trump plans to launch a plan to build the United States into the "Global Crypto Capital" 🏙️💻
• His son promoted decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, attracting attention 👨👦👦💱
Possible impact analysis:
1. Overall industry: 75% chance of benefit 📈
- Policy support may attract more funds and talents
- But we need to be wary of politicization risks
2. Regulatory environment: high variables, favorable probability 60% ⚖️
- Or promote friendly policies, but may strengthen supervision
- Need to balance innovation and risk control
3. Investment atmosphere: 80% chance of short-term benefit 💰
- Good news may stimulate market sentiment
- The long-term impact needs to be observed based on specific policies
4. DeFi field: 85% chance of benefit 🚀
- Trump family support may usher in development opportunities
- But still need to pay attention to compliance risks
5. International competition: bad probability 70% 🌍
- Or intensify competition with other countries in the crypto space
- May impact the global encryption landscape
Suggestions for action:
• Pay close attention to Trump’s specific follow-up plans
• Pay attention to changes in U.S. encryption-related policies
• Evaluate DeFi project investment opportunities, but be cautious
• Pay attention to international encryption policy trends and do risk management
Conclusion:
Trump’s move may bring new opportunities to the U.S. encryption industry, but it also lurks challenges. Market participants should remain vigilant and respond flexibly. Opportunities and risks coexist, the key lies in how to grasp them!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market has high risks, so investment needs to be cautious.
#大选 #特朗普概念币 #影响
$SUI $DOGS
Highlights of the Express:
• Trump plans to launch a plan to build the United States into the "Global Crypto Capital" 🏙️💻
• His son promoted decentralized finance (DeFi) projects, attracting attention 👨👦👦💱
Possible impact analysis:
1. Overall industry: 75% chance of benefit 📈
- Policy support may attract more funds and talents
- But we need to be wary of politicization risks
2. Regulatory environment: high variables, favorable probability 60% ⚖️
- Or promote friendly policies, but may strengthen supervision
- Need to balance innovation and risk control
3. Investment atmosphere: 80% chance of short-term benefit 💰
- Good news may stimulate market sentiment
- The long-term impact needs to be observed based on specific policies
4. DeFi field: 85% chance of benefit 🚀
- Trump family support may usher in development opportunities
- But still need to pay attention to compliance risks
5. International competition: bad probability 70% 🌍
- Or intensify competition with other countries in the crypto space
- May impact the global encryption landscape
Suggestions for action:
• Pay close attention to Trump’s specific follow-up plans
• Pay attention to changes in U.S. encryption-related policies
• Evaluate DeFi project investment opportunities, but be cautious
• Pay attention to international encryption policy trends and do risk management
Conclusion:
Trump’s move may bring new opportunities to the U.S. encryption industry, but it also lurks challenges. Market participants should remain vigilant and respond flexibly. Opportunities and risks coexist, the key lies in how to grasp them!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market has high risks, so investment needs to be cautious.
#大选 #特朗普概念币 #影响
$SUI $DOGS
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$BTC 11.6 Bitcoin Market Analysis
The possibility of a short C wave for Bitcoin has significantly decreased, and it is expected to follow a normal downward structure, likely breaking below 60,000.
Since the drop from the 73,660 position, the first wave of a five-wave decline has been established, forming a guiding wedge structure. Now we are in the second wave of a rebound, which typically does not exceed 80% of the decline.
If this rebound forms an ABC structure, the A wave has reached around 70,500, and it is expected to hit another high point after a pullback, possibly around 71,000-72,000.
Once the C wave rebound is complete, it will be an opportunity to short, but the exact position will need to be assessed as we go.
#开单建议
Short positions are set in the 71-72 range.
#比特币突破7万美元 #BTC走势预测 #大选
The possibility of a short C wave for Bitcoin has significantly decreased, and it is expected to follow a normal downward structure, likely breaking below 60,000.
Since the drop from the 73,660 position, the first wave of a five-wave decline has been established, forming a guiding wedge structure. Now we are in the second wave of a rebound, which typically does not exceed 80% of the decline.
If this rebound forms an ABC structure, the A wave has reached around 70,500, and it is expected to hit another high point after a pullback, possibly around 71,000-72,000.
Once the C wave rebound is complete, it will be an opportunity to short, but the exact position will need to be assessed as we go.
#开单建议
Short positions are set in the 71-72 range.
#比特币突破7万美元 #BTC走势预测 #大选
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Expected rate cuts #美联储何时降息？
1. Time nodes There are two important time points for expected rate cuts: September 18 and November 7 Fed interest rate meetings.
The US election time is November 5 voting day. Unofficial results will be released that night or the next day, and official results will be released at the end of the year.
2. Rate cut data According to CME data on the day, on September 18, 30.6% of the people did not cut interest rates, 57.2% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, and 12% cut interest rates by 5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 69.4%. On November 7, the probability of no rate cut is 17.8%, 46.5% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, 30.6% cut interest rates by 5 basis points, and 5% cut interest rates by 7.5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 82.4%.
3. Rate cut deduction Considering the US election, the election is 2 days before the November rate cut. If the rate cut starts in November, the good news will be realized. The financial market will crash during the election, causing market fluctuations and affecting the election results. If the rate cut starts in September, there are still 2 months before the November election. Even if the US stock market crashes and pulls back, there is enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure the stability of the stock market during the election.
4. Conclusion Based on the above, the probability of starting a rate cut in September is the highest. If this inference is true, then in the three months from June to August, the financial market has the potential benefit of the expectation of a rate cut, which is good for the US stock market and the crypto market.
#美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓 #大选 #MegadropLista
1. Time nodes There are two important time points for expected rate cuts: September 18 and November 7 Fed interest rate meetings.
The US election time is November 5 voting day. Unofficial results will be released that night or the next day, and official results will be released at the end of the year.
2. Rate cut data According to CME data on the day, on September 18, 30.6% of the people did not cut interest rates, 57.2% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, and 12% cut interest rates by 5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 69.4%. On November 7, the probability of no rate cut is 17.8%, 46.5% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, 30.6% cut interest rates by 5 basis points, and 5% cut interest rates by 7.5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 82.4%.
3. Rate cut deduction Considering the US election, the election is 2 days before the November rate cut. If the rate cut starts in November, the good news will be realized. The financial market will crash during the election, causing market fluctuations and affecting the election results. If the rate cut starts in September, there are still 2 months before the November election. Even if the US stock market crashes and pulls back, there is enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure the stability of the stock market during the election.
4. Conclusion Based on the above, the probability of starting a rate cut in September is the highest. If this inference is true, then in the three months from June to August, the financial market has the potential benefit of the expectation of a rate cut, which is good for the US stock market and the crypto market.
#美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓 #大选 #MegadropLista
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Positive non-farm data = negative? Bitcoin experienced a 4,500-point drop overnight. Is this just the beginning?
It is very interesting to see the crypto sector following the trend of the U.S. stock market. This year’s trend is basically a replica of last year!
It peaked in March and then continued to fall without a break. It fell 4 days a week, and fell by several points every day. It fell for several months. Last year, it fell for 6 months before rebounding. It has also fallen for 6 months so far this year. The interest rate cut in September is nominally good news, but the capital market generally treats it as a good news. Now the US stock market is actually reflecting the interest rate cut in advance and is falling and correcting. #小非农增幅创3年多新低
With the release of yesterday’s non-agricultural data:
It peaked in March and then continued to fall without a break. It fell 4 days a week, and fell by several points every day. It fell for several months. Last year, it fell for 6 months before rebounding. It has also fallen for 6 months so far this year. The interest rate cut in September is nominally good news, but the capital market generally treats it as a good news. Now the US stock market is actually reflecting the interest rate cut in advance and is falling and correcting. #小非农增幅创3年多新低
With the release of yesterday’s non-agricultural data:
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#BTC
The reason for the market decline is the increased likelihood of Harris's election.
The end-of-month closing did not stabilize within the range of 71469/71814, which means that the pace and magnitude of this month's increase will be affected, and in the short term, a retest of the key support area is necessary.
Increased volatility reflects a lack of direction; election uncertainty leads to range consolidation waiting for an outbreak, while strong certainty leads to a one-sided market.
Only re-establishing above the range of 71469/71814 indicates a strong market; otherwise, look for buying points in the white circle support range.
#大选 #比特币 #btcusd #行情
The reason for the market decline is the increased likelihood of Harris's election.
The end-of-month closing did not stabilize within the range of 71469/71814, which means that the pace and magnitude of this month's increase will be affected, and in the short term, a retest of the key support area is necessary.
Increased volatility reflects a lack of direction; election uncertainty leads to range consolidation waiting for an outbreak, while strong certainty leads to a one-sided market.
Only re-establishing above the range of 71469/71814 indicates a strong market; otherwise, look for buying points in the white circle support range.
#大选 #比特币 #btcusd #行情
#BTC
Price firmly stands at the range of 71469/71814, with the daily chart showing a strong upward movement directly touching historical highs.
The previous high is just a decoration; if it can stabilize within the range of 71469/71814 during a pullback, there is momentum to reach the next target of 75242. If it breaks below, it will need to adjust towards the range of 69961/70320.
With the election approaching, it reminds us of risks, along with the end of the month closing and the announcement of Super Week data, the price may fluctuate, although the overall bullish structure remains unchanged.
#BTCUSDT #比特币 #交易 #行情
Price firmly stands at the range of 71469/71814, with the daily chart showing a strong upward movement directly touching historical highs.
The previous high is just a decoration; if it can stabilize within the range of 71469/71814 during a pullback, there is momentum to reach the next target of 75242. If it breaks below, it will need to adjust towards the range of 69961/70320.
With the election approaching, it reminds us of risks, along with the end of the month closing and the announcement of Super Week data, the price may fluctuate, although the overall bullish structure remains unchanged.
#BTCUSDT #比特币 #交易 #行情
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Harris Slightly Leads in 'Blue Wall' States: Marist Poll
A Marist poll released on Friday shows Harris leading former President Trump by 3 percentage points in Michigan, and by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Compared to the Marist poll in September, Harris shows slight improvement in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a slight decline in Michigan, but she maintains an advantage in all aspects.
However, all these results are within the margin of error.
These three blue wall states may be the easiest path for Harris to the White House, as they were pivotal in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Her polling support there is better than in sunbelt states, and if she secures these three states next week, she is likely to win the election.
However, all these results are within the margin of error.
These three blue wall states may be the easiest path for Harris to the White House, as they were pivotal in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Her polling support there is better than in sunbelt states, and if she secures these three states next week, she is likely to win the election.
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As the final weekend approaches the US election, uncertainty in the market is expected to intensify market volatility. Investors must closely monitor key support and resistance levels, as the upcoming market movements could be swift and significant. For savvy investors, any market overreaction could present an opportunity to profit. Therefore, we advise all traders to maintain a cautious approach and remain vigilant to respond to potential market changes.
#大选
#大选
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Don't speculate until the data comes out. Let's see if Trump can win in Pininfarina Asia. Trump seems to have magic in one place after two elections.
#大选
#大选
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What does Trump's presidency mean? And what would it mean if Harris were to win against the odds?
First, let's discuss Trump's chances of winning, which is actually the foundation of all logical deductions. Generally, people looking at the trends of the election will refer to polls; although polls are an important indicator, as we have emphasized in almost all our videos before, multi-dimensional indicators can better reflect the reality of the situation. Therefore, we will look at three areas: one is the betting platforms, the reason is self-evident, those who can really influence these platforms are never retail investors, so the probability of candidates winning on these platforms represents the will and expectations of interest groups. The second is to observe the attitudes of major institutions; during this time, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and UBS have all expressed their attitudes, which not only guide market direction but also express the attitudes of interest groups and test other interest groups. The third is to observe the direction of Wall Street capital, which is the most direct evidence, after all, what is said is not important, what matters is voting with their feet; as long as the capital genuinely invests, their attitude is real. So what do these three places represent? First, let’s look at the betting platforms based on data compiled by the Financial Times.