Expected rate cuts #美联储何时降息？
1. Time nodes There are two important time points for expected rate cuts: September 18 and November 7 Fed interest rate meetings.
The US election time is November 5 voting day. Unofficial results will be released that night or the next day, and official results will be released at the end of the year.
2. Rate cut data According to CME data on the day, on September 18, 30.6% of the people did not cut interest rates, 57.2% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, and 12% cut interest rates by 5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 69.4%. On November 7, the probability of no rate cut is 17.8%, 46.5% cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, 30.6% cut interest rates by 5 basis points, and 5% cut interest rates by 7.5 basis points. The overall expected rate cut probability is 82.4%.
3. Rate cut deduction Considering the US election, the election is 2 days before the November rate cut. If the rate cut starts in November, the good news will be realized. The financial market will crash during the election, causing market fluctuations and affecting the election results. If the rate cut starts in September, there are still 2 months before the November election. Even if the US stock market crashes and pulls back, there is enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure the stability of the stock market during the election.
4. Conclusion Based on the above, the probability of starting a rate cut in September is the highest. If this inference is true, then in the three months from June to August, the financial market has the potential benefit of the expectation of a rate cut, which is good for the US stock market and the crypto market.
