Bitcoin's price has nearly recovered from a 22% drawdown from its all-time high, showing strong support at $60,000. This support level is influenced by the behavior of new whale cohorts. Let's analyze the realized price and supply trends among different Bitcoin address cohorts to understand market dynamics and future price implications.

Realized Price by Address Cohorts: New vs. Old Whales

The first chart shows the realized price (RP) trends for new whales, old whales, and addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC.

Key Observations:

New Whales RP: The green line represents new whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of less than six months). Their RP has risen significantly, closely following Bitcoin's market price, indicating continuous accumulation at higher prices.

Old Whales RP: The orange line for old whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of more than six months) remains relatively flat, suggesting these holders have a stable, lower average cost basis.

Large Balances RP: The purple line for addresses with balances over 10,000 BTC shows a steady increase, aligning with the overall bullish trend.

Implications:

The alignment of new whales' RP with Bitcoin's market price, especially after the SEC approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicates sustained buying pressure from this cohort.

The stable RP of old whales suggests they are not significantly affecting recent liquidity changes.

Written by onchained

Transactions exceeding $1M USD dominate the on-chain volume of TON. Following the rise of Toncoin in 2024, there has been a significant increase in high-value transactions in dollars, indicating growing interest from whales and increased network activity among these participants. The number of such transactions has also increased proportionally, undoubtedly contributing to the rise in Toncoin's price. As a result, TON has become a robust blockchain with high value transfer capacity and a gradual increase in participation from large investors.

Written by joaowedson

The whales’ appetite for buying Bitcoin has returned strongly, after a two-month decline in buying interest since March.

They are now returning with a strong buying force again, indicating that the current prices are suitable for purchasing and accumulating despite the widespread fear.

Written by abramchart

BTCs on the exchange are interpreted as selling pressure. Especially in case of sharp price increases, the first place we should look is the exchange reserves.

Since Bitcoin's bottom, we have seen a steady decline in exchange reserves. When we tested the 60k band recently, the reserves had also bottomed out. When we got a reaction from here and reached the 70k region, an increase in reserves was observed and the price experienced a correction.

At this point, the level we need to pay attention to is the 2m $btc region. If we see a buildup above this level, we can interpret it as a sales preparation by the whales. We have observed an increase in reserves in recent days. It is possible to interpret this increase as operational sales made by miners. . As a basis for this, we can show the decrease in miners' reserves in the same period.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

The fall of the Puell Multiple after a halving of Bitcoin is a phenomenon that can have several implications and meanings for the market.

The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, halves the mining reward per block, directly impacting miners' income.

With the reward reduced, miners' daily revenue decreases substantially, unless the price of Bitcoin rises significantly to compensate for this reduction.

Given that the Puell Multiple is the ratio between daily revenue and the 365-day moving average, a sharp drop in daily revenue after halving leads to a decrease in the Puell Multiple, as the long-term moving average takes time to adjust to this new reality.

The reduction in miners' daily revenue indicates that mining has become less profitable, unless the price of Bitcoin increases significantly. The current range in which the Puell Multiple is quoted confirms Price discount, meaning that the network is potentially cheap.

The decrease in the supply of new bitcoins could create upward pressure on the price, especially if demand continues to grow. Investors may interpret the fall in the Puell Multiple as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new phase of scarcity, potentially preparing for a rally.

Therefore, this phenomenon could signal a phase of adjustment in the mining market, influence the supply and demand of Bitcoin and possibly anticipate significant movements in the price.

Written by G a a h

One way to assess the level of decentralization among the wealthiest and the poorest in terms of balance quantity is through the Gini coefficient. And the TON Blockchain is becoming even more decentralized over time.

A decline in the Gini coefficient over time on the TON blockchain can indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth among TON token holders. The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality, where values closer to 0 indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth and values closer to 1 indicate a more unequal distribution.

Therefore, if the Gini coefficient is decreasing over time, it suggests that wealth concentration is diminishing and that more individuals or addresses are acquiring TON tokens more equitably. This can be interpreted as a sign of increased participation and resource distribution in the TON network, which can be seen as positive in terms of decentralization and community inclusion."

Written by joaowedson

Today, I will analyze the relationship between NUPL and price, and discuss how we can take action.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is calculated by comparing market value and realized value. Bitcoins are valued at their purchase price.

Now, I will explain how we should use it during bull and bear trends, and show how to build a strategy using the EMA.

When our NUPL value falls below 0, the last bitcoins sent, according to the market value, are considered expensive, signaling potential local bottoms. At this point, some are selling at a loss while others are in surrender mode. When the surrender phase ends, selling decreases, and the price stabilizes at a certain bottom point.

When the NUPL value rises above 0, it indicates that the market value has increased and exceeds the unrealized value.

Potential support and resistance levels here are psychological. Each quarter crossing can psychologically initiate a rise or pullback.

In bullish trends, NUPL usually hovers between 0.5 and 0.75.

The bull market typically starts to end when NUPL reaches 0.70 and above.

Since we are currently in a bull market, price increases are likely as long as NUPL stays between 0.5 and 0.75. Pullbacks are buying opportunities for us. When we see the price increase together with NUPL, it indicates that selling pressure has come and will continue. We can think that the market is completely heated up, and when we enter the greed phase at 0.75, we should be cautious as deep corrections will likely occur.

I have added the EMA 121 here, which shows us the areas where momentum will gain and lose. When we look at the NUPL value, we see that EMA 121 often acts as support and resistance. It indicates that in some cases, manipulation occurs, and we can take a position when it moves back above or below the EMA.

In some areas, deviations occur, showing us which way to turn positions when momentum is gained or lost again.

The BULL market continues. The excess has not yet arrived.

Written by XBTManager

The perpetual futures market has significantly influenced crypto prices in recent years. Examining this market’s metrics can offer valuable insights for predicting future price movements. One key metric is the 7-day moving average of the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which indicates whether buyers or sellers are dominating market orders. Since market orders directly impact prices, this metric is crucial.

The Taker Buy Sell Ratio has consistently been below 1 for the past few months, suggesting that sellers have been more active in the ETH futures market. This aggressive selling could be due to speculative activities or as a hedging strategy for spot portfolios. However, despite being below 1 for the last five months, the ratio has recently shown a gradual increase, coinciding with a rise in ETH prices. It is now approaching the 1 mark.

This upward trend in the Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates a potential shift in market dynamics. If the ratio continues to rise, it may signal a reduction in aggressive selling pressure. Consequently, with sufficient demand from the spot market, this shift could sustain the current uptrend.

Written by ShayanBTC

Could Huge Ethereum Netflows from Coinbase Be Related to Spot ETF Approval?

Before the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, we had already witnessed significant Bitcoin netflow from Coinbase.

1- Coinbase Netflow

When examining Coinbase netflow data, we observed substantial Ethereum netflow on three different days in 2024, specifically 134K, 120K, and 132K.

I'm not definitively saying this is related to the Spot ETF, but we had seen similar large netflows before the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

In the above chart, you can see the Coinbase Bitcoin Netflow data from June 2023 to January 2024.

The first thing that will likely catch your eye is the three distinct days where more than 10,000 Bitcoins (daily) were netflows.

This similarity alone cannot, of course, be directly linked to the Ethereum Spot ETF approval. However, it is still worth keeping an eye on this data.

2- All Exchanges ETH Netflow

In the chart above, you can analyze the 2024 Ethereum netflow (all exchanges) data.

Recently, we can clearly see a divergence between Coinbase and other exchanges in this data. This indicates that the interest of US investors in Ethereum has significantly increased compared to the rest of the world.

Why do you think US investors' interest is so high?

✅ Conclusion

The similarities in Coinbase-specific Bitcoin and Ethereum netflow data before the Spot ETF (the decision on the Ethereum Spot ETF will be made by this Friday). Unknown investors in the US have bought more than $400 million worth of Ethereum on three different days in 2024.

My personal opinion is that there are unnamed institutions behind these daily purchases of over $400 million, as it seems overly optimistic to assume that individuals are making such large purchases.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has risen approximately 4%, trading again above the $70k mark. One of the drivers of this movement has been strong demand through ETFs, with net inflows of approximately $1.2 billion over the last week.

Key Observations:

Short-Term Holder Profitability: The recent price increase has restored a healthy level of profitability for short-term BTC holders, reducing the risk of a break in investor sentiment and a reversal from a bullish to a bearish trend.

Price Consolidation: Despite the rise, a consolidation within the $60k to $70k range still seems more plausible for some time. This is due to the lack of significant macroeconomic incentives for a massive influx of capital into the market and the transition to a phase of euphoria, as observed in previous cycles.

Economic Calendar: This week, the economic calendar is weak, which is positive in the current context, considering the still positive sentiment with the latest U.S. inflation data. However, a shift to a risk-off sentiment due to poor economic data could lead to a correction back to the $60k range.

Outlook: Despite my base scenario of consolidation, signs of a new wave of demand are emerging. There is a growing possibility that the next rally could begin sooner than expected.

Written by Gustavo Faria

With a rise of more than 8% during yesterday, Bitcoin recorded one of the best days of 2024 and was driven by strong liquidations in the futures market.

During the day, around US$259 million in sales contracts were liquidated, which ended up generating significant cash buying pressure.

Furthermore, this was the largest short contract liquidation event since 2022 and marks a structural change in Bitcoin pricing.

Events like this have the ability to directly influence the price, but they originate in the spot market with the intense accumulation of the last few days.

This process of institutional accumulation was being tracked in our analysis and has started to impact the price now.

Retail investors are expected to add more buying pressure on “FOMO”, but short-term corrections may emerge.

Written by caueconomy

🔹 Definition of Accumulation Addresses:

- No outgoing transactions.

- Balance exceeding 10 BTC.

- Excludes accounts belonging to CEX or miners.

- Received more than two incoming transactions.

- Last transaction occurred within the last 7 years.

🔹 Data Overview:

1. Inflows to Accumulation Addresses: This captures the amount of BTC flowing into accumulation addresses daily, along with the BTC price at the time.

2. Balance on Accumulation Addresses: This records the total balance of BTC in accumulation addresses daily, alongside the corresponding BTC price.

🔹 Key Observations:

Significant Inflows on May 15th: On May 15th, there was a notable spike in BTC inflows to accumulation addresses during a local market correction. This suggests that during price dips, accumulation addresses tend to receive higher inflows, indicating buying interest at lower prices.

Price Movement and Accumulation: As BTC prices dipped, the balance in these addresses increased, reinforcing the idea of accumulation during corrections.

🔹 Conclusion:

The analysis reveals significant inflows to accumulation addresses during the local BTC market correction on May 15th, indicating that investors might use market dips to accumulate BTC. Understanding these inflow patterns provides valuable insights into market behavior and investor sentiment during price corrections. By monitoring these trends, investors and analysts can better predict potential market movements and make more informed decisions.

Written by IT Tech

Toncoin is currently the 7th largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with much of this growth achieved in 2024. The advancements and popularity of the TON Network are undeniable, and it is gaining traction among investors daily.

Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies, Toncoin has quickly advanced to rank among the top 3 in cumulative returns over the past year, closely following Solana and Near as the best investments of 2024. This meteoric rise reflects the growing confidence in the TON ecosystem, driven by its robust technological framework and increasing adoption.

The TON Network, known for its scalability and speed, has been attracting significant attention from developers and users alike. Its unique features, such as the ability to handle millions of transactions per second and its user-friendly interface, have set it apart from other blockchain platforms. As a result, TON has seen a surge in decentralized applications (dApps) and partnerships, further boosting its market position.

For comparison, over the past 12 months, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a cumulative return of approximately 150%, a respectable figure in its own right. However, Toncoin has recorded an impressive 244% return in the same period. Remarkably, between August 2023 and April 2024, Toncoin's value surged by over 640%, making it one of the best investments among major cryptocurrencies. This extraordinary performance highlights Toncoin's potential and the market's growing interest in this innovative cryptocurrency.

To visualize this impressive growth, we have created a video showcasing a chart race. This dynamic graph illustrates Toncoin's annual returns against the top 20 cryptocurrencies, vividly demonstrating Toncoin's rapid ascent and the substantial gains it has provided to its investors. Watch the video to see how Toncoin has outpaced many of its peers and solidified its position as a top-performing asset in the crypto space.

Written by joaowedson

Net Taker Volume measures the difference between buying and selling volume facilitated by market orders, which are crucial in market dynamics. Market orders prioritize positioning over price, often willing to pay more for immediate execution.

This was evident in Ethereum's recent activity. Following ETF Specialist James Settfort's announcement of a 75% likelihood for an ETH ETF, Binance traders swiftly went long on Ethereum in significant quantities. In just one candle, Taker Buy Volume surpassed Taker Sell Volume by $530 million, marking the largest such differential ever recorded. Binance traders are eagerly embracing the Ethereum ETF news, exhibiting a fervor akin to there being no tomorrow. 🤯

Written by maartunn

The Open Network (TON) Token currently stands as one of the most popular layer one cryptocurrencies. Since the beginning of the year, its price has surpassed that of bitcoin by +118%.

Analyzing price fluctuations across various trading sessions allows us to discern which investor groups are bullish on TON and which lean more bearish. This insight can guide expectations regarding price movements.

The chart I've assembled illustrates the relative price performance during each trading session (these times are referenced from GMT timezone)

🟣 European trading spans from 8 to 15 hours.

🟠 American trading ranges from 14 to 23 hours.

🟢 Asian trading occurs between 0 and 8 hours.

While many days register minimal movement, the data highlights American investors as the most bullish on TON. Numerous orange lines indicate significant percentage changes during the US session, with the token experiencing the highest average percentage increase during this period. Conversely, European traders appear the most bearish, as evidenced by multiple purple lines denoting negative price changes during their session. Asia shows a more moderate stance, with trading hours commencing later, reflected in the data. Asian session traders seem to align with past price performance, spanning both positive and negative trends.

For active short-term trading, I recommend seeking long positions during US sessions. Conversely, for shorting, entering during the EU session is preferable.

Written by maartunn

What is the RCV Metric?

The 60-Day Realized to Market Capitalization Variance (RCV) is a custom metric developed to analyze the difference between Bitcoin’s realized capitalization and market capitalization over a 60-day period. This variance is then normalized by the average market capitalization, offering a clear view of the relationship between these two critical financial indicators.

Understanding the Components:

1) Realized Capitalization : The sum of market values of all Bitcoin at the last moved price, providing a more stable and less speculative value compared to market capitalization.

2) Market Capitalization: The total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation, calculated by multiplying the current price by the total supply.

3) RCV Calculation: The difference between the 60-day moving averages of market capitalization and realized capitalization, divided by the average market capitalization. This ratio helps identify significant deviations between speculative market value and a more intrinsic value based on actual transaction prices.

🌟 Significance of the RCV Metric

The RCV metric is a valuable tool for investors and analysts for several reasons:

1) Market Sentiment Analysis: By comparing market and realized capitalizations, RCV can indicate whether the market is overly optimistic (high market cap relative to realized cap) or pessimistic.

2) Investment Decisions: Identifying periods of significant variance can help in making informed investment decisions, especially during market extremes.

3) Risk Management: Understanding the divergence between market perception and actual transactional data helps in assessing the risk levels associated with Bitcoin investments.

🚀 Conclusion

The 60-Day Realized to Market Capitalization Variance (RCV) metric is a powerful addition to the toolkit of anyone analyzing Bitcoin’s market performance. It provides a nuanced view of the market, combining both speculative and intrinsic value assessments.

Written by Crazzyblockk

The number of spot exchange stablecoin deposits has significantly surged over the past few days, with minimal corresponding increases in spot exchange stablecoin withdrawals. This trend suggests increasing demand in the crypto spot exchanges. Historically, such dynamics have often preceded significant short-term bullish or bearish moves in the market, indicating potential for notable price action in the near term.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

As of the latest data, Bitcoin's funding rate has stabilized with the 7-day Simple Moving Average at 0.45%, significantly lower than the 3-4% seen in early March when Bitcoin's price was at a lower level. This rate is comparable to levels observed in September and April last year, which preceded bullish price movements. In previous "dead-cat-bounce" scenarios, funding rates were higher, with March 2021 seeing a rate close to 3% before a correction to $30,000, and November 2021 rates between 0.7% and 0.8% before the 2022 bear market.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

The short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has found support above 1, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. A SOPR value above 1 means that coins moved on that day are, on average, selling at a profit, while a value below 1 indicates that they are selling at a loss. The recent retest of the 1 level, which represents the break-even point for short-term holders, is particularly significant. This support suggests that holders are unwilling to sell at a loss, reducing selling pressure. As the SOPR consistently remains above 1, it signals that profit-taking is being absorbed. With the market not overly heated, this dynamic has the potential to push Bitcoin's price upwards.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

The Realized Price-UTXO Age Band allows us to observe the Realized Price of BTC by the age of UTXO. This serves as the cost basis and can act as support or resistance. However, it's important not to interpret this band literally, as each cohort has a different overall Realized Cap Dominance (%).

📌 Let's examine the actual Realized Price of Long-Term Holders (LTH), considering their Realized Cap share. Including the last cycle, the cohort ranging from 6 months to 5 years accounts for 43.97% of the Total Cap.

☑️ The weighted average value reflecting their share is $31.92k.

1) The Realized Cap share of LTH (6m-5y) shows little change compared to a month ago.

- Given that the STH share has exceeded 50%, it indicates that the transfer of holdings occurred 2-3 months ago.

2) The movements of the 2-3 year cohort since 2024 show that they are the main players in this shift.

- While their Realized Price remains relatively stable, their Cap share has significantly decreased.

- These are investors who bought during the previous cycle's peak and the subsequent decline.

- When the market reached a new ATH in March, they exited the market.

3) LTHs are clearly in a profitable position.

- Therefore, the driving force behind the rise is not LTHs but STHs (new investors).

Written by Yonsei_dent