The following analysis combines multiple on-chain metrics to assess the current state of Bitcoin's market cycle. Each indicator sheds light on the overall sentiment, market phase, and potential turning points for $BTC.

🔹Supply in Profit (%)

🔹Puell Multiple

🔹CryptoQuant P&L Index

🔹Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator

🔹MVRV Ratio

🔹UTXO Age Bands (Realized Cap)

Combining all indicators, Bitcoin appears to be in a bull market phase, but several indicators suggest we may be closer to the mid

The Short-term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) shows whether short-term Bitcoin holders are making profits or facing losses when selling. By applying the Bollinger Bands indicator, we can capture moments that deviate from typical price behavior. Each band represents ±2 standard deviations, where breaking above the +2σ (upper) band suggests market overheating, and breaking below the -2σ (lower) band indicates a possible recession.

Historically, when STH-SOPR significantly deviates fr

The chart illustrates the dynamics of the average purchase price for various categories of Bitcoin holders who are not exchanges or miners. As of November 10, 2024, the current BTC price has reached $80,000 USD. Let’s examine the purchase levels of large holders based on their balance size:

1. Balance of 100–1,000 BTC: average purchase price is $38,200 USD.

2. Balance of 1,000–10,000 BTC: average purchase price is $41,500 USD.

3. Balance over 10,000 BTC: average purchase price is $38,500 USD.

The activity in Binance, particularly metrics tracking Bitcoin inflows, serves as a vital indicator for understanding the current dynamics of the Bitcoin market. Historically, significant price increases have coincided with spikes in the Binance Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric. When this metric rises, it typically indicates selling activity from long-held coins, which often leads to downward price corrections.

For example, in March 2024, when Bitcoin initially reached $70,000, a surge i

With Trump’s presidential win confirmed, Bitcoin’s price has reached a new high. Following this news, the Coinbase Premium surged from negative to positive, showing a sharp increase in buying pressure. This can be interpreted as an upward movement in price led by U.S. investors (Chart 1).

While the label of a “pro-crypto” president has heightened optimism among crypto market participants, it would be an oversimplification to attribute this entirely to the “Trump effect.” Therefore, here are som

Recent data shows an intriguing dynamic in Bitcoin's market: While the NVT Golden Cross metric is declining, Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, and spot ETF inflows are reaching new highs. This trend suggests that institutional investors are increasingly entering the Bitcoin space through regulated ETFs, fueling price gains even as on-chain activity remains relatively low.

Unlike past cycles where retail investors led the charge, this new phase reflects a shift toward institutional-driven growt

The last two bull markets spanned approximately 1,050 days, with the final stage occupying about one-third of this period. Notably, the euphoria phase lasted the last three months, as reflected by my RF Greed Index, which registered a maximum score of 13 at that phase. It's essential to remain invested during this time to maximize profits; however, as we approach the final days of this phase, we need to develop a solid exit strategy.

For those aiming to be value investors, knowing when to step

The fund market premium metric is an essential indicator, as it reflects the difference between a fund's market price and its Net Asset Value (NAV). When the premium is elevated, it suggests strong buying pressure within a specific region, indicating that investors are paying a higher price for fund shares relative to the underlying assets.

This premium metric substantially declined from mid-November 2021, when Ethereum reached its all-time high. This decline aligned with waning interest in Eth

Currently, the Bitcoin funding rate is negative, and open interest has reached an all-time high. This indicates that expectations for further price increases have waned after the sharp rise in the futures market following the presidential election announcement. High open interest suggests potential volatility. On the other hand, these short position bets are increasingly centered on mid-sized exchanges such as OKX, Bybit, and Huobi, suggesting the possibility of a short squeeze as opposed to fut

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow Data:

Green Bars: Represent net inflows to exchanges, meaning more Bitcoin was deposited than withdrawn, which could imply increased selling pressure or preparation for trading.

Red Bars: Represent net outflows from exchanges, meaning more Bitcoin was withdrawn than deposited, often seen as a sign of accumulation or long-term holding by investors.

Tether Exchange Netflow :

new record by Hitting over 2 billion USDT in exchange netflow for the first time since December

Yesterday saw more than $1.3 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, setting a daily new high.

When looking at the total volume and comparing CEX and ETF volumes, we can see that ETF volume appears relatively low

While ETF volumes still appear modest compared to CEX volumes, ETFs play a pivotal role in driving CEX activity.

By shaping overall market sentiment, ETFs boost investor behavior and indirectly fuel volume across the crypto market.

Written by Darkfost

Why is this Important?

Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a unique asset, but its price movements are strongly influenced by the behavior of its holders. The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) is a cutting-edge tool that helps assess market risk by tracking the actions of long-term BTC holders, providing deeper insights into the supply dynamics that drive price fluctuations.

What Did I Do?

I analyzed Bitcoin’s blockchain data, focusing on the inactive supply—coins that have not moved for periods

Ethereum Funding Rates Approaches the Critical Bull Threshold of 0.02

Historically, Ethereum Funding Rates reaching the 0.02 level has marked a crucial threshold before parabolic bull rallies. Over the past four years, during four significant uptrends, Funding Rates held above 0.02, supporting gains in the spot market.

Let's give some examples:

July 2020: Funding Rates > 0.02, and Ethereum surged by over 100% in approximately 50 days.

November 2020: Funding Rates stayed above 0.02, Ethereum

In my price analysis, my bullish scenario for the Range 0.5 structure materialized very well. I will wait for the blue line, our old Ath level, to work as support.

I mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index indicator would be bullish on a trend break and the price went up. Now we are in an important resistance zone. We will wait for this price, which has been resistance many times, to now work as support.

The open interest indicator is moving with the price. This situation is positive. There

After Trump's election, the price of Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. However, the MVRV indicator remains subdued, hovering just above 2. As we know, during periods of euphoria, the MVRV metric exceeds 3. To truly mark the last stage of a bull market, this number needs to rise a bit higher.

However, the influx of new investors is still slow. At the last stage of the bull market, the share of new investors was close to 80% by realized capitalization. Now, it's in the low 30s, making it unrealist

The most recent trend went beyond Realized Price. In other words, it was digesting selling pressure. To be precise, the selling pressure was decreasing, as can be seen in the Spent Output Value Bands. I would like to use the indicators in this way to determine the range.

Written by Crypto_Lion

The images are spot volume and perp volume ratio, simply compares which volume correlates with price.

Spot volume for USD and USDT correlates with price from 49k in August 2024. Spot volume for Coinbase Premium also correlates and forms a bottom.

Spot volume for USDT leads from 52k in September. However, the overall volume ratio for USD has been rising low. This is also the time when the buysell ratio of PERP was noticeable. In other words, it is possible that Binance was driven by spot and pe

After Phase 1, the LTH (Long-Term Holder) supply, which had been accumulating again, has begun to be distributed.

A key condition for moving into Phase 2 is an increase in STH (Short-Term Holder) supply, specifically through a surge in new capital.

Currently, the market is experiencing abundant new liquidity.

The cycle is repeating and resembles the 2017 cycle.

Written by Mignolet

Binance is growing in popularity, which can be demonstrated through several different metrics. I have included the Exchange Reserve Percentage (Binance), a metric that shows the proportion of reserves held on Binance compared to all exchange reserves.

The percentage recently reached an all-time high of 25%. This percentage made a increase of around 4% over the past year, with Binance sitting at 21% in November 2023. While this growth might seem relatively small, there is only one exchange with

Despite Bitcoin being priced at an all-time high, miners are not sending BTC to exchanges for sale, which indicates that they still believe in the upward trend and are not selling. Typically, when BTC approaches an all-time high, miners transfer BTC to exchanges and sell to cover their expenses. We can confirm this by looking at the miner transfers on October 29. On that date, there was a significant inflow of BTC to exchanges, and since most of it was sold, there was no equivalent outflow

Writ