1) Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve USD - All Exchanges

Bitcoin exchange reserves, in fiat terms, remain at the same levels as April 2022, and are expected to have little impact on price volatility

2) Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio

SSR index is at its lowest point this year, likely driven more by the recent sluggish altcoin market and low volatility rather than Bitcoin itself.

3) Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio - All Exchanges

Over the past few months, as the market has struggled to break out of a large trading range, retail investors have become increasingly aggressive during the technical rebound from price lows

4) Bitcoin: Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands

1d - 1w (57,816)

1w - 1m (59,207)

1m - 3m (61,960)

3m - 6m (66,976)

6m ~ 12m (50,220)

[Comment: Mid- to Short-Term Investment Perspective]

The average purchase price for holders with less than 6 months of holding time is between 57,816 and 66,976 USDT, indicating that they are invested at relatively high price levels. While price volatility driven by crypto market trends is limited, the market is heavily influenced by aggressive high-leverage investments and macroeconomic factors.

Therefore, in Q4, the key will be whether Bitcoin can maintain the 49,000 ~ 53,000 USDT price range and build new momentum.

Written by Wenry

Realized Cap is the metric that counts each coin (UTXO) when it was last traded on the network during hand movements they are revalued where a cost base is created. We obtain insights into whether there is an inflow or outflow of net capital.

Today, the Realized Cap is at $461B, an increase of $3B or 0.66%, demonstrating the low movement and net capital inflow. We will then be able to understand through the points of the tree inflection points what situation all this capital is in.

1- Market tops, the Ralized Cap stops rising and this is where there is stabilization the capital trend rotates from profit to loss.

2- Recovery from the bear market, where HODL determines the market floor and capital flows evenly into Bitcoin.

3- Bull market rally, when the market approaches the ATH, the HODL who bought at the lows tend to perform at the highs.

The movements and flow of net inflows by investors since August, at $461B, are in a recovery phase, the increase was practically non-existent in other words, it shows that the inflow of net capital is completely stagnant.

As a result, we can state that the profit made by HODL is of the same magnitude and proportion as that of top buyers (STH). A scenario that aims to take a cautious view, it is necessary to see a significant movement in Bitcoin in the next 30 days to alleviate this liquidity neutrality. Net Realized profit tends to go to the value 1 as a balance between a bull market.

Written by Percival

The bull-bear market cycle indicator from CryptoQuant illustrates the recurring cycles of Bitcoin over recent years, highlighting movements between overbought phases (Overheated Bull) and oversold phases (Extreme Bear). Each bull market phase is followed by a bear market, demonstrating how market volatility and sentiment heavily influence Bitcoin's price. As of 2024, Bitcoin is in a transitional phase, showing early signs of recovery from the bear market. However, there is no clear indication yet whether the market is ready to enter a strong bull phase again. This indicator is valuable for investors and traders, as it helps them determine when to enter or exit the market based on the current market cycle conditions.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

Overall, the data suggests that despite short-term selling pressure, some fundamental factors still show relatively positive signs for the Bitcoin market. Selling pressure from miners and long-term holders is low, but sentiment from institutional investors and the US market is somewhat weak. Volatility may continue, with technical indicators suggesting that the market might be nearing a short-term peak, especially due to overbought signals from the Stochastic indicator.

Investors should remain cautious, as profit-taking and selling pressure are evident from several sources. However, there is still potential for a longer-term bullish trend if selling pressure eases and market sentiment improves.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

Comparison of base costs vs. Bitcoin's current price (~$60,000):

🐳 New Whales (<155 days):

Base Cost: $62,038, down by 3.28% with BTC at $60,000.

Trend: Despite the decline, new whales are still accumulating, showing long-term confidence in Bitcoin.

🐋 Old Whales (>155 days):

Base Cost: $27,843, up 115.54%.

Trend: Even with major profits, old whales hold, expecting further price increases.

⚒️ Miners:

Base Cost: $43,179, giving a 38.91% profit.

Trend: Though in profit, no signs of mass selling, suggesting they may hold or gradually sell.

📊 Binance Traders:

Base Cost: $55,471, with an 8.17% profit.

Trend: Traders are more likely to realize profits quickly, contributing to short-term volatility.

🎓 Overall Conclusions:

Old Whales: Holding, indicating minimal selling pressure.

New Whales: Still buying at high prices, showing optimism for future gains.

No Panic Selling: Miners and traders have realized profits, but there’s no mass sell-off, pointing to short-term stability.

📝 Final Takeaway:

New whales and Binance traders are actively buying, while old whales continue to hold. This mix could signal market stability and potential price growth.

Written by IT Tech

The perpetual futures market plays a crucial role in shaping the overall price movement of the crypto market. By examining the sentiment of futures traders, we can gain valuable insights into potential future price trends. This chart shows the 50-day moving average of Ethereum's (ETH) funding rates, providing a broader view of whether buyers or sellers are executing orders more aggressively through market orders in the futures market.

Recently, the 50-day moving average of ETH funding rates has been on a consistent downtrend, reaching its lowest levels in 2024. This persistent decline highlights the prevailing bearish sentiment, signaling a lack of buying interest from traders. For Ethereum to recover and reach higher price levels, demand in the perpetual futures market must increase. If the current trend of negative funding rates continues, it is likely that Ethereum will experience further price declines in the mid-term.

However, it's important to note that while negative funding rates are typically seen as bearish, they can sometimes be an early signal of market recovery. Negative funding often leads to short liquidation cascades, which can trigger price reversals, but this is highly dependent on whether there is sufficient spot buying pressure to support a rebound. Without stronger demand from spot buyers, Ethereum’s price may remain under pressure.

Written by ShayanBTC

Tether has minted $1B worth of stablecoins.

Overall, this minting can be seen as a positive development. It indicates that there is an inflow of capital, which has been converted into stablecoins via Tether, and these Tethers can be used for transactions. Even if it doesn’t have an immediate impact, it’s a sign that the market is generally growing and will continue to expand in the future.

With the $1B minted, Tether's total supply has risen from $54B to $55B. These minted amounts will be utilized over time. We are in a positive scenario.

Written by XBTManager

As of September 16, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $58,650.75, showing short-term volatility with a 2.56% 24-hour decline but a stronger 7.09% recovery over the past week. The market exhibits a mixed sentiment. On one hand, on-chain data like decreasing exchange reserves, low Binary CDD, and miner holding behavior signal a bullish stance for long-term holders. However, there are cautionary signals, such as a high exchange netflow and profit realization as shown by aSOPR, indicating that some traders are taking profits after recent gains.

The sentiment is split: U.S. investors are buying at a premium, but institutional buying pressure is weak, as reflected in the low fund premium. Korean retail interest is high, possibly leading to localized speculative buying. Derivatives data show a dominant long sentiment, with rising open interest further validating a market belief in upward movement. However, overbought technical indicators like the Stochastic Oscillator warn of a potential short-term price correction.

Overall, the market is in a state of cautious optimism with some risk of short-term pullbacks, while long-term holders remain confident.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

The number of Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses has dropped to 132,100, the lowest value since 2016. This metric represents the number of addresses sending inflow transactions to exchanges. A low value suggests a decrease in the number of investors selling coins on spot exchanges, potentially indicating a reduction in selling pressure.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The number of Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses has dropped to 132,100, the lowest value since 2016. This metric represents the number of addresses sending inflow transactions to exchanges. A low value suggests a decrease in the number of investors selling coins on spot exchanges, potentially indicating a reduction in selling pressure.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The Realized Price reflects the price when purchasing BTC, so it can be considered a break-even point. Using UTXO Age Bands, you can check the Realized Price by holding period.

📌The Realized Price for 1 week to 1 month holders🟣 and 1 to 3 month holders🟠 is $59.3k and $62.1k, respectively. The current BTC price is $60.3k, located between them.

In the short term, the two bands are likely to act as support and resistance, respectively, and can be set as the main section when trading.

In addition, the Realized Price for the 6 to 12-month group of long-term holders is $50.1k. If the decline deepens, it can be expected to act as support.

Written by Yonsei_dent

The Data Bulls Are Waiting for to Step into the Spotlight: MVRV SMA365 - Why is it Important?

Let's first take a look at the data we have 👇

MVRV --> 1.92

SMA365 (MVRV) --> 2.00

When we historically examine MVRV and its 365-day moving average, we encounter a striking result. After the MVRV prices above the SMA365, we witness the bulls stepping into the spotlight for Bitcoin. At the moment, we have data showing a rising MVRV after its recent local bottom (from 1.71 to 1.90).

So, what are the bulls waiting for?

✅ Conclusion

Uncertainty in financial markets probably affects the risk appetite of the bulls the most.

There are two important upcoming events in the near to mid-term future. The first is the Fed's interest rate decision meeting on September 18 (whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis points cut). The other is the U.S. elections set to take place in November. Until these events are resolved, we may see a period where MVRV and SMA365 move closely together (this is my personal opinion).

However, after these uncertainties clear, it's not far-fetched to see a market where the MVRV prices above the SMA365 again, and the bulls dance under the spotlight.

Written by burakkesmeci

Puell multiple at 0.58 is at a similar range as in 2020 right before the 2021 rally. It's also very close to the bear market range of 2022.

Written by Onchain Edge

The current Bitcoin market, as of September 14, 2024, presents a nuanced picture characterized by a mix of positive and cautionary signals. On the bullish side, lower exchange reserves indicate reduced selling pressure, a sign that market participants may be holding their assets with expectations of further price appreciation. This is further supported by positive sentiment from US-based investors, as reflected in the Coinbase Premium, and strong demand from institutional funds and ETFs, indicated by the Fund Premium. These factors suggest that a solid base of buyers exists, which could help sustain or push the price higher in the near term.

However, there are also significant signs of caution that warrant attention. The higher-than-average exchange netflows suggest that more Bitcoin is being moved to exchanges, which could point to an increase in potential selling activity. This, combined with the realization of profits as indicated by the aSOPR metric, hints that some market participants may be looking to take gains off the table, possibly putting downward pressure on the price. Additionally, in the derivatives market, the negative funding rate signals a predominance of short positions, further pointing to bearish sentiment among leveraged traders.

On-chain data reflects a market in a phase of moderate unrealized profits, characterized by an “anxiety phase,” where participants are unsure whether to sell or hold. Long-term holders, however, remain relatively inactive, a positive sign as it suggests that these key players are not distributing their Bitcoin en masse.

The technical indicators, such as RSI and Stochastic, are currently neutral, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral stance from technicals could imply that Bitcoin is at a decision point, where the next price movement could be driven by shifts in market sentiment or significant news events.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

I'm excited to share my latest research on the "Inactive Supply Shift Index", a novel metric that promises to revolutionize how we understand Bitcoin market risks.

What did I do?

I dug deep into historical Bitcoin blockchain data, tracking inactive supply over various periods (namely, one to seven years). By computing weekly changes and stacking them into a composite metric, I crafted the Inactive Supply Shift Index.

Lately, the Inactive Supply Shift Index has reverted to values close to zero, following a period of deep negative readings that coincided with Bitcoin's price exceeding the $70,000 threshold.

Understanding the Shifts:

- Deep Negative Values: These readings flagged significant activity from long-term holders who, after patiently accumulating Bitcoin, began to sell as prices soared. This behavior is often seen as an effort to capitalize on market peaks, contributing to increased selling pressure.

- Reversion to Zero: The return to near-zero levels indicates a reduction in this selling pressure. It suggests a stabilization phase as the influx of Bitcoin from long-term stashes diminishes, paving the way for potential market equilibrium.

Insights into Market Dynamics:

- Peak Selling and Strategic Holds: A surge past key price points like $70,000 can trigger profit-taking among veteran holders. These shifts in long-term holder behavior often provide valuable clues about market sentiment and potential inflection points.

- Signaling Stability: As the index stabilizes, it may signal a pause in aggressive selling, providing fertile ground for renewed buyer interest and potential upward momentum, assuming market demand holds firm.

Utilizing the Inactive Supply Shift Index can empower traders, analysts, and investors to discern between ephemeral volatility and profound market trends. This understanding is crucial for making informed decisions and navigating Bitcoin's dynamic landscape.

Written by onchained

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has recently dipped below its 365-day moving average, a key level that historically signaled market bottoms and potential recovery zones. While this might seem like an opportunity for long-term investors, it's important to remain cautious.

Until the MVRV ratio breaks back above this critical threshold, a balanced and careful approach is necessary. In past cycles, reclaiming this level often marked the return of optimism, but current market conditions — including uncertainty especially around macroeconomic challenges — indicate that this recovery may take longer to materialize.

Therefore, maintaining a measured and balanced perspective is essential. A positive outlook is understandable, but it should be tempered with awareness of the broader risks until the MVRV ratio confirms a more sustained upward momentum.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi

📊 Bitcoin Realized Cap and UTXO Age Bands Analysis 🟠🟢🟣

This chart reveals Bitcoin’s price cycles to UTXO age bands. Key insights:

1️⃣ Market Peaks: A rise in short-term UTXOs (1d ~ 1w, orange) often signals market tops as short-term holders cash out at high prices.

2️⃣ Accumulation Phase: An increase in long-term UTXOs (1m ~ 3m, purple) indicates accumulation, where investors hold their coins, anticipating future gains.

3️⃣ Current Cycle: We see signs of accumulation, but short-term activity also rises.

🔍 Is another bull run coming? Monitoring these trends can give insight into potential future market movements.

Definition: The Realized Cap - UTXO Age Bands chart displays the distribution of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization across various age bands. Each colored section represents the proportion of UTXOs that were last moved within a specific time period. Realized Cap is determined by valuing each UTXO based on the price when it was last transacted. This metric provides a clear summary of the market share held by both long-term and short-term holders, helping to understand their behavior over time.

Written by IT Tech

The Puell Multiple is a valuable metric that compares the daily issuance of Bitcoin (in USD) to its 365-day moving average. It’s often used to spot potential market tops and bottoms based on miner profitability, which can significantly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.

In this chart:

- The blue line represents the Puell Multiple.

- The green boxes highlight periods when the Puell Multiple dropped to the lower bound (around or below 0.4), which often signals market bottoms and strong buying opportunities.

- The red shaded area at the top marks periods where the Puell Multiple is extremely high (over 4-6), often correlating with market tops and potential sell signals.

Summary:

The Puell Multiple is nearing levels where it historically signaled buying opportunities.

Investors looking for a long-term accumulation phase might interpret the current Puell Multiple near 0.4 as a sign that Bitcoin is undervalued, or at least nearing a market bottom.

However, it’s crucial to combine this with other metrics like on-chain data, macroeconomic conditions to make well-rounded investment decisions.

Written by Amr Taha

The STH SPOR is an excellent indicator for reading spent coins before the last 155 days after the previous purchase or recent investors who buy high and sell low. It measures the profit or loss dynamics of these investors and the sentiment regarding the market.

There is a characteristic in previous cycles, the formation of a bottom with values ​​within the range of 0.90 and 0.93 (I omitted Covid-19 as it is a marginal event and distorts the settings).

STH SPOR today has a "pessimistic sentiment" with more losses to be realized by these investors, but should we be worried?

For the price to rise, it must first fall and reach equilibrium!

➡️ Conclusion?

Optimistic! With a defined exhaustion bottom, bears reach their maximum pain in previous cycles, and losses remained below 1 for a long period **(between 2 to 3 months)** without positive recoveries, today we see sudden movements of rapid sales in a short period **(2 days)** with quick recovery. Suggests that STH has exhausted Bitcoin and needs to move in the short term. The batteries are getting charged for the bulls.

Written by Percival

Calm Before the Storm in Ethereum: Watch Out for the 0.015 Point in Funding Rates

When we examine the funding rate data for Ether over the past year, we observe two similar periods of calm before the storm.

Will September Tell a Similar Story?

Looking at the data from September 2023, we can see that the funding rate hovered between 0.002 and 0.005. This is quite a low rate for a bull cycle. Following this, as the funding rate settled above 0.015 (supported by the futures market), we witnessed Ether’s price surge from the 1,500s to the 4,000s. As we now look at September 2024, we notice that the funding rate has been at a similar level for nearly a month, starting from August.

Is the calm before the storm about to break?

✅ Conclusion

I can’t say if history will repeat itself, but there’s certainly a rhythm to it.

From our past experiences, we know that after the quiet (and holiday-filled) summer months, the crypto market tends to pick up in the last quarter. To see another parabolic rise in Ether, we need positive signals. The support from the futures market plays a significant role in such rallies.

We will wait for Ether's funding rate to rise above 0.015 to see if the calm before the storm breaks. A move above this level in funding rates is crucial for tracking healthy increases during bull markets.

Written by burakkesmeci