The Realized Price-UTXO Age Band allows us to observe the Realized Price of BTC by the age of UTXO. This serves as the cost basis and can act as support or resistance. However, it's important not to interpret this band literally, as each cohort has a different overall Realized Cap Dominance (%).
📌 Let's examine the actual Realized Price of Long-Term Holders (LTH), considering their Realized Cap share. Including the last cycle, the cohort ranging from 6 months to 5 years accounts for 43.97% of the Total Cap.
☑️ The weighted average value reflecting their share is $31.92k.
1) The Realized Cap share of LTH (6m-5y) shows little change compared to a month ago.
- Given that the STH share has exceeded 50%, it indicates that the transfer of holdings occurred 2-3 months ago.
2) The movements of the 2-3 year cohort since 2024 show that they are the main players in this shift.
- While their Realized Price remains relatively stable, their Cap share has significantly decreased.
- These are investors who bought during the previous cycle's peak and the subsequent decline.
- When the market reached a new ATH in March, they exited the market.
3) LTHs are clearly in a profitable position.
- Therefore, the driving force behind the rise is not LTHs but STHs (new investors).
Written by Yonsei_dent