Probabilistic scenarios for the price of BTC, ETH, and the market.

🟢 Buy Pressure on BTC: A Boost for the Green Candle:
- BTC is a deflationary asset with 19.62 million of the total 21 million BTC already mined.
- The upcoming BTC Halving in late April will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance to about 450 BTC, equating to $20,904,300 per day.
- According to Bitmex Research, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $405 million on February 8, 2024, covering over 19 days of miner output. Despite potential fluctuations in daily inflows, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs across global social networks is likely to boost investment and BTC lock-up, as ETFs require 1:1 asset backing.
- The development of Bitcoin as a Layer 2 (L2) platform for DeFi, complete with staking and liquidity provision, is expected to further lock up liquidity, signaling a bullish outlook.

🟢 Buy Pressure on ETH: Leading the Charge:
- ETH stands as the prime beneficiary of Layer 2 and Layer 3 developments.
- Insider reports suggest the launch of an ETH ETF in May 2024, encouraging funds to accumulate ETH for 1:1 backing.
- A quarter of all ETH is staked, underscoring its commitment to network security and passive income for holders.
- The EIP1559 mechanism actively reduces ETH supply, with current inflation at -0.299%, reinforcing a deflationary trend.

🔮 My Probabilistic Scenario:
- I foresee BTC reaching $110,000-120,000 and ETH hitting between $9,000 and $11,000, with a potential shift to a bear market in Q1/2025.

This analysis stems from a comprehensive review of multiple sources, offering a forward-looking perspective on cryptocurrency dynamics. 🚀
#dyor #crypto2024

📊 Market Outlook Ahead of the Holidays:
Macroeconomic data and statements are setting the stage for a thin and volatile market as the holiday season approaches.
🚨 Key Challenges:
1. The current market lacks fresh catalysts for a significant upward trend.
2. A recent bullish push from Defi token purchases by World Liberty Financial has lost momentum, weakening the market’s potential for growth.
3. This week’s influx of new token listings shows diminishing growth potential, signaling fewer buyers for altcoins as the year draws to a close.
📈 BTC Outlook vs. Altcoins:
- While BTC’s medium-term prospects remain bullish, supported by macroeconomic trends, a broad market rally seems less certain.
- For those heavily trading altcoins, it might be wise to reduce risk by the end of this week and consider returning in January.
📉 Seasonal and Structural Shifts:
- The market has shifted toward being more U.S.-centric, with the year-end holiday season introducing high volatility and thin liquidity.
- Without careful planning, it’s easy to lose hard-earned gains from recent months.
🏖 Take a Strategic Break:
Sometimes, the best strategy is to step back and reset. Taking a break now can provide a fresh perspective for the opportunities that 2025 will bring.
✨ Looking Ahead:
The New Year promises to be eventful, filled with exciting possibilities. Remember:
- Don’t overtrade or exhaust yourself.
- Patience is a vital part of successful trading.
💡 Pro Tip: Taking the time to prepare now could set you apart when the next big opportunity arises. Rest is strategy, too. 🎯

📉 Market Dynamics During the Drop:
In the recent market downturn, a wave of liquidations swept through, with many coins showing distinct wicks in their price action.
🔍 Key Insight: Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that these wicks were not random. Instead, they were tied to liquidity pockets near critical zones.
- 📅 Timeframe Analysis:
- Many of these liquidity zones were on monthly timeframes,
- Others appeared on daily or even 20-hour timeframes.
These movements worked to restore market balance after the disruptions caused by previous upward trends.
⚖️ The Liquidity Rule:
This behavior reinforces the idea that the market is in constant pursuit of liquidity—a rule that spares no asset. Every coin or project, by its nature, tends to gravitate toward this dynamic.
🌟 Unvisited Zones:
While some zones have already been tapped, others—like the October impulse zones—remain untouched. It is highly likely that the market will return to these levels eventually.
💎 Ethereum as a Case Study:
Ethereum stands out as one of the clearest examples of this phenomenon, showcasing how the market seeks liquidity at various key levels.
📈 Strategic Edge:
Simply understanding this principle gives you a significant edge over 99% of traders, as it prepares you for the inevitable corrections that will occur. With this knowledge, you can better anticipate market movements and position yourself for success. 💡

Pay close attention to the price dynamics of most assets—they hold valuable clues about future trends. 🚀
🔍 Key Observation: Many coins fail to consistently pull back to high-timeframe (HTF) liquidity levels, which are essential for building a healthier and more sustainable growth structure.
This leaves HTF levels unfilled as prices surge. Such behavior is expected during rapid price spikes, driven by overwhelming demand that leaves behind large inefficient volumes—a normal occurrence in these conditions.
📉 Critical Zones Ignored:
These rapid movements bypass critical zones where institutions and whales might typically intervene. Without pullbacks to these areas, trends lack solid support structures, making them vulnerable to sharp reversals in the future.
🌟 The Euphoria Trap:
While short-term traders celebrate their ultra-green PNLs, cheering a market that "never pulls back, only rises," they might overlook the clues pointing to future corrections. These gaps don’t just vanish; they act as magnets, pulling the market back as it seeks to restore balance.
📈 The Inevitable Pullback:
Although the current trend feels unstoppable, it is silently preparing for significant retracements. Some gaps will be filled, others won’t—because if making money were easy, everyone would do it, and that’s not how the system works.
💡 Strategic Patience:
If you've exited your positions, it's a waiting game. Those gaps left during explosive growth often become the battlegrounds when the market seeks equilibrium again.
⚖️ The Market Law:
No fundamental metric can save any asset from this reality—it’s both a challenge and an opportunity. For the experienced trader, these gaps present chances for short positions to hedge risk or for multiplying wealth when the market corrects.
In the end, the choice is yours: will you follow the rules or succumb to the frenzy? The market doesn’t forgive complacency. 💼

A few tips, especially for beginners in the crypto space:
During every market cycle, many influential figures and asset managers love to promote sky-high BTC price targets.
📈 Back in 2017, numbers like $400,000 and even $1M were frequently thrown around. While these predictions create a lot of hype and engagement, they also help draw in more retail investors—for better or worse.
Here’s the reality: These targets almost never materialize. It’s all just clever marketing and nothing more.
⚠️ If you base your actions on these lofty goals and wait for them to materialize, you’re likely to get wrecked.
Instead, focus on realistic strategies. Acting only when these extreme targets are reached will almost certainly lead to losses. Stay grounded and protect your capital. ✅

There’s a cruel, invisible tax that comes with wealth gained through luck.
💭 You pay this tax through constant fear and anxiety, because wealth that comes accidentally feels fragile and uncertain.
That’s why, if you manage to earn life-changing money during this period, take steps to build something that will help you protect and preserve it. 🛡
Wealth isn’t just about earning—it’s about keeping it safe for the future. Plan wisely. ✅

It may not sound exciting, but we all need to have a plan of action ready for those moments of unexpected market highs. 📈
The peak will arrive much sooner than anyone expects.
I’m not saying this to scare you—just sharing my experience. Be prepared. ✅

Greed will tempt you every single day.
This year, I’ve already set aside the profits I’ve made. Guess what I’m tempted to do with it?
💭 Invest it all in Ethereum. Why not?
- Low risk, almost guaranteed upside 📈
- High liquidity
- And let’s face it, we’re in the middle of alt-season with incredible growth happening!
It’s hard to think of reasons not to do it, right? Right? That voice of temptation is always there, whispering in your ear.
But here’s the truth: You’ll never have enough. You’ll always want more. Is that rational, though? When you already have the means to transform your life, why chase after even more?
Why risk it all? (And let’s be honest—your mind rarely asks you that question.)
I’m still fully involved in the game, still well-protected, and still trading with substantial capital. But here’s the difference: I’ve chosen to take a portion of my gains and step out with it.
Let’s not fool ourselves, though. We all know that x2 feels smaller than x4, x8, or x16. It’s tempting to keep reaching for more. Don’t fall for it.
I battle this temptation every day. And I know that you’ll face this battle too, eventually.
Even if that moment hasn’t arrived yet, it will. And when it does, this may be your greatest challenge during the cycle—not making a profit, but resisting the temptation to risk it all.
Stay wise. Stay disciplined. ✨

It may not sound exciting, but we all need to have a plan of action ready for those moments of unexpected market highs. 📈
The peak will arrive much sooner than anyone expects.
I’m not saying this to scare you—just sharing my experience. Be prepared. ✅

If you find yourself overtrading, here’s a helpful strategy:
1. Start your day with a structured morning routine. This should include analyzing charts and setting up alerts at the key levels where you plan to trade. 📊
2. Walk away from your computer. 🚶‍♂️ Don't return to your trading desk until the alerts are triggered.
This approach will help you stay disciplined and avoid unnecessary trades! ✅

💡 Many traders have solid strategies, but 95% still fail because they can’t control their emotions.
Here are 3 steps to help you master emotional control and improve your trading performance:
1️⃣ Reduce risk per trade:
- Put less money on the line.
- Fewer risks mean less stress and better emotional balance.
- This leads to sharper, more consistent execution.
2️⃣ Strengthen your emotional control:
- Stick to the routine: plan, trade, repeat.
- This builds efficiency and consistency over time.
- Focus on developing your mental resilience and psychological discipline.
3️⃣ Adjust your risk per trade:
- Regularly recalibrate your risk.
- It’s the most effective way to manage emotions during trades.
🚨 Remember: If you can’t control your emotions, trading might be too risky for you. Emotional discipline is the cornerstone of success in the markets! 💹

No one will trust you with anything important if you’re emotionally unstable.
You’re missing out on countless opportunities when you neglect your mental health.
🍀 Good fortune in life starts with self-care. Take time to prioritize your well-being—it’s the foundation for success and trust. 💡

Not enough profit.
It may sound surprising, but many people in this cycle barely made any money.
For the majority, meme coins were either not part of their strategy or they weren’t prepared for how dominant memes would become. By the time they jumped in, it was too late to capitalize.
Instead, most people invested in ETH and other altcoins that remained stagnant for much of the cycle.
Now, while ETH and altcoins are starting to recover, bringing some relief, many investors are still eager to accumulate more. This drive comes from the frustration of not achieving the same level of profit as in previous cycles.
💸 The "FOMO" is real, but the lessons are clear: adaptability is key in volatile markets. 🚀

It’s not just that BSC has more junk than gems, but also that savvier, aggressive market players front-ran the more trusting and relaxed ones. This has shifted the meme coin landscape—at least for now.
🕰 Chronology of Events:
- Euphoria Phase:
Binance listed GOAT, PNUT, MOODENG, and even ACT, which skyrocketed by 20x! SOL broke out of its range and surpassed the 2024 ATH.
- Disappointments:
- Pump.science fizzled out after two API hack fiascos.
- Streams on pump.fun descended into chaos, driving away the community’s healthy core. Rumors of "letters from authorities" spread.
- Liquidity Shifts:
Funds moved into classic alts like XRP and EOS. Logical—if someone made $50M on memes, the next step might be to aim for $500M by diversifying into broad altcoins at their bottom.
- CZ’s Take:
CZ joked that while memes are fun, they lack utility, hinting at a revival of utility tokens.
- Volumes Drop:
Solana volumes peaked from November 10–21 but later declined (though they remain 2x higher than March levels). Ethereum’s ecosystem fared better, with ETH itself showing growth.

🌟 Emerging Trends:
1. Bonding Curve + Streams: A powerful combo. Imagine coins with interactive ties to the physical world—robotics, technical streams, etc.
2. AI: Another growth wave is coming—it’s just a matter of time. 🤖
3. Situational Memes: Sharp social and political memes are here to stay.
4. DeSci: An underexplored narrative.
5. UFOs: Expect a surge in related memes. 👽
6. Personality-driven Memes: Projects tied to Musk, Trump’s team, Vitalik, and others will keep surfacing.
✨ Conclusion: Meme coins may take a breather, but the space isn’t dead. Trends like AI, bonding curves, and social/political narratives ensure the next wave of creativity and excitement is just around the corner! 🚀

Bitcoin vs. Altcoins 💰
Let me break it down for you:
Right now, you still need to put in the effort to identify the best projects. It’s the same story as the last two years—nothing new here. 🕵️‍♂️
In the coming months, we’ll keep seeing this pattern: Bitcoin's major moves drain the life out of the altcoin market, affecting roughly 95% of altcoins. Again, this has been the trend for two years now.
But here’s the twist: every time Bitcoin’s momentum slows, risk-hungry investors shift their attention to altcoins. 🌊 The momentum flows there—until Bitcoin starts moving again, pulling back the spotlight.
This cycle will repeat over the next few months, until altcoins eventually outperform Bitcoin across the board.
When will this happen? Most likely, when Bitcoin’s momentum stalls over longer timeframes. Picture this: a multi-week or even multi-month sideways period where Bitcoin’s price refuses to budge.
Remember the frenzy during that single week of sideways movement below $100k? Now imagine a 3-month range around $150k (just as an example)—a huge momentum shift. ⚡️ That’s when Altseason takes off. 🚀
Here’s the current reality: it’s been less than three weeks since Bitcoin broke out of its 8-month range. We’ve got plenty of trends to go through before we see anything major.
Bless this market. 🙏 It will either make you rich—or break you. 💔

Beginner traders often aim to double their account in just a month. 🌟
In contrast, experienced traders focus on sticking to their strategy, rules, and risk management. They understand that by maintaining discipline, significant profits will come naturally at the right time. 🕰✨

Unpopular opinion: The new administration will likely be “bullish” for tokens and “bearish” for memes.
In the near future, it will be easier to attract funding or launch projects without complicated legal and financial structures. This shift will give teams more freedom to be creative in building value for token holders.
This environment could lead to a rise in quality projects, potentially lowering valuations prior to launch, and making early-stage investments more appealing to small investors—similar to the ICO boom of 2016. If this trend unfolds, we may see a significant liquidity shift away from meme-based assets.
Another prediction: regulations for accredited investors may be eased, further reinforcing this shift.
Crowdfunding platforms are likely to benefit from these changes, while venture capital funds will need to adopt a more founder-friendly approach to sustain deal flow.
In summary, I’m very optimistic about opportunities for small investors and those in the early stages of building wealth. The days when institutional money blocked access to quality investment opportunities may soon be ending. 🌟

Let’s imagine for a moment…
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election marks a new chapter. His main goal as a businessman is to stimulate economic growth, and his leadership could have significant ripple effects on the world economy.
Today, the U.S. economy remains a primary benchmark for global markets. For many nations, the stance of the U.S. is critical: it reassures investors, stabilizes businesses, and influences the geopolitical environment and public sentiment.
During his campaign, Trump made key promises, including ending wars, revitalizing the cryptocurrency market, addressing the ballooning national debt, and removing Gary Gensler from his role as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. These initiatives, among others, have sparked high expectations.
Trump’s victory brings an undeniable sense of relief and hope for a brighter future, at least for the next four years.
An important factor to consider is Trump’s close relationship with Elon Musk. Their potential collaboration could be a game-changer for the cryptocurrency market and the economy as a whole. Their shared interests may lead to exciting announcements soon, bringing new developments for the market.
But what’s next?
With three months to go until Trump’s inauguration, we may see significant market turbulence, potential crashes, and sudden dips in prices.
Trump’s actions as president could profoundly influence markets, though the real impact may only become clear next year. Markets likely priced in a Trump victory, as many investors held high hopes for this outcome.
By spring 2025, geopolitical tensions could ease, sparking renewed optimism and encouraging investments in high-risk assets. Given Trump’s active interest in cryptocurrencies, we might see an "altcoin season" by this time.
This could fuel a major altcoin rally that exceeds expectations, although much will depend on Trump’s words and actions. With Trump in office, 2025 might become a monumental year for the crypto industry.

Solana Surpasses All Blockchains, Including Ethereum, in DEX Transaction Volume for October 📈
Top 5:
1. Solana → $52.2 billion
2. Ethereum → $41.5 billion
3. Base → $27.7 billion
4. BSC → $24.2 billion
5. Arbitrum → $16 billion
Solana not only outperformed Ethereum but exceeded its volume by an impressive 25%, now holding around 26% of the entire decentralized exchange (DEX) market. This marks the second month in a row where Solana leads in DEX volume, showcasing its rising popularity and the increasing interest in meme coins. 🚀