Probabilistic scenarios for the price of BTC, ETH, and the market.
š¢ Buy Pressure on BTC: A Boost for the Green Candle:
- BTC is a deflationary asset with 19.62 million of the total 21 million BTC already mined.
- The upcoming BTC Halving in late April will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance to about 450 BTC, equating to $20,904,300 per day.
- According to Bitmex Research, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $405 million on February 8, 2024, covering over 19 days of miner output. Despite potential fluctuations in daily inflows, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs across global social networks is likely to boost investment and BTC lock-up, as ETFs require 1:1 asset backing.
- The development of Bitcoin as a Layer 2 (L2) platform for DeFi, complete with staking and liquidity provision, is expected to further lock up liquidity, signaling a bullish outlook.
š¢ Buy Pressure on ETH: Leading the Charge:
- ETH stands as the prime beneficiary of Layer 2 and Layer 3 developments.
- Insider reports suggest the launch of an ETH ETF in May 2024, encouraging funds to accumulate ETH for 1:1 backing.
- A quarter of all ETH is staked, underscoring its commitment to network security and passive income for holders.
- The EIP1559 mechanism actively reduces ETH supply, with current inflation at -0.299%, reinforcing a deflationary trend.
š® My Probabilistic Scenario:
- I foresee BTC reaching $110,000-120,000 and ETH hitting between $9,000 and $11,000, with a potential shift to a bear market in Q1/2025.
This analysis stems from a comprehensive review of multiple sources, offering a forward-looking perspective on cryptocurrency dynamics. š
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