Probabilistic scenarios for the price of BTC, ETH, and the market.

🟢 Buy Pressure on BTC: A Boost for the Green Candle:
- BTC is a deflationary asset with 19.62 million of the total 21 million BTC already mined.
- The upcoming BTC Halving in late April will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance to about 450 BTC, equating to $20,904,300 per day.
- According to Bitmex Research, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $405 million on February 8, 2024, covering over 19 days of miner output. Despite potential fluctuations in daily inflows, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs across global social networks is likely to boost investment and BTC lock-up, as ETFs require 1:1 asset backing.
- The development of Bitcoin as a Layer 2 (L2) platform for DeFi, complete with staking and liquidity provision, is expected to further lock up liquidity, signaling a bullish outlook.

🟢 Buy Pressure on ETH: Leading the Charge:
- ETH stands as the prime beneficiary of Layer 2 and Layer 3 developments.
- Insider reports suggest the launch of an ETH ETF in May 2024, encouraging funds to accumulate ETH for 1:1 backing.
- A quarter of all ETH is staked, underscoring its commitment to network security and passive income for holders.
- The EIP1559 mechanism actively reduces ETH supply, with current inflation at -0.299%, reinforcing a deflationary trend.

🔮 My Probabilistic Scenario:
- I foresee BTC reaching $110,000-120,000 and ETH hitting between $9,000 and $11,000, with a potential shift to a bear market in Q1/2025.

This analysis stems from a comprehensive review of multiple sources, offering a forward-looking perspective on cryptocurrency dynamics. 🚀
#dyor #crypto2024

Post-American Order, Trump’s Chaos & the Crypto Market’s Panic
If you still don’t get it, crypto is the ultimate chaos detector. 24/7 market, extreme liquidity, instant reactions. So when Trump lit the trade war fuse, BTC was the first to feel the shockwave.
📉 Friday night, BTC was above $106K—then Trump dropped new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
🔥 Strategy? Crush, retreat, extract maximum gains.
🤬 Opponents? Canada and the EU hit back with 25% tariffs on $155B worth of US goods.
So, what the hell is actually happening?
Twitter has the answer. And it’s not pretty.
🔗 Full thread (https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1886082749779607997)
💬 TL;DR:
1️⃣ The US is pulling back from global dominance.
2️⃣ Marco Rubio admits a multipolar world is here—the unchallenged supremacy era is over.
3️⃣ Tariffs on allies like Mexico, Canada, and the EU—America no longer wants vassals, just transactional partners.
🎭 WSJ calls it "stupid," but every paradigm shift looks stupid at first. What’s really happening? The US is choosing to end its empire on its own terms.
📌 This isn’t the end of the US. It’s the end of the American Empire. But chaos? Chaos is here to stay.
Crypto sees it clearer than anyone. 🚀

BTC: Bears think they won? Cute. 🐻🎉
Price crawling to 94K. Panic in the streets. Shorts printing. But who’s really exit liquidity here? 🤔
Bitcoin is slowly suffocating alts, painting a perfect bear trap. Think for a second: bullish news everywhere, whales still in the game, markets still breathing. Too obvious of a dump—meaning it’s fake. 🔥
February 4th, China’s back. You really think this lull is accidental? Believe what you want. I’d love to nuke a fat short here, but it feels way too easy—aka, a setup. The coil is tightening, and when does it pop? When everyone stops paying attention. 🚀
Dominance? Classic manipulation—up, down, back again. But if BTC sends, alts will go nuclear.
So, we wait. We don’t do dumb things. Or, you know… just let the bots print for you. 🤖 The macro bull? Still roaring. 🟢

The Fed is smashing "Ctrl + P" again. On February 3, 2025, Jerome Powell is about to inject a crispy $241 billion into the system.
Will retail see any of it? Ha, not a chance.
But will this fuel a bull run like a Red Bull before a marathon? Now that’s the real question.

I wouldn’t want my kids to become traders—it’s probably the fastest route to mental health issues. 🧠💔 The past couple of days alone have been chaotic enough to bring many traders to tears:
1️⃣ China released a better AI tool at a lower cost and made it open-source. This has led people to believe that demand for high-end GPUs from big players like Nvidia may not be as high as anticipated. As a result, Nvidia's stock took a hit, dragging down U.S. stock markets along with it. And as always, when stocks fall, cryptocurrencies follow. 📉
2️⃣ Trump’s warnings about restricting exports to America (if certain demands aren’t met) have sparked fears of economic hostility. This uncertainty is causing the markets to drop further. 💥
3️⃣ Hopes for an FOMC interest rate cut are looking dim, which isn’t helping stabilize the markets either. Another drop. 🚨
In short, these past few days have been nothing short of a rollercoaster for the financial world. 🌪

📉 Why is the cryptocurrency market declining?
In my view, two key factors are driving the current drop:
1️⃣ Tech fears after DeepSeek’s launch: There’s rising concern about a potential tech-related crash, fueled by the hype surrounding DeepSeek. Cryptocurrencies are being hit particularly hard because they’re a high-risk asset class, especially when traditional markets are closed.
2️⃣ De-risking ahead of the FOMC meeting: It’s common for investors to reduce risk before key events like the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This is especially true now, given the heightened sensitivity to interest rates, the US dollar, and overall market liquidity.
⚠️ Conclusion: These factors combined are causing increased volatility and hesitation in the crypto space.

There are two types of people who hate cryptocurrency.
1. those who are not smart enough to make money from it.
2. They don't know anyone smart enough to help them do it.

Google Trends: the number of searches for "how to buy crypto" broke a historic record

🤔

The heat is on against Trump
Coinage founder: the reason Trump is launching memcoins before the inauguration is that he could face the risk of violating the Constitution and re-impeachment if he launches after taking office. According to the Constitution, no president is allowed to abuse his office for personal enrichment.
Meanwhile, Messari's founder called on Trump to fire the man who initiated the MELANIA project, criticizing the project team for being unprofessional.

Insider trading Melania
Entry 0.2$ exit 4 ( entry amount 800.000$ )
There are a dozen such purses, the Trump family is just shaving the market at the expense of their reputation

Trump's plan to launch 728 tokens and pay off U.S. national debt 🙆‍♂️

The launch of $TRUMP has brought significant changes to the cryptocurrency landscape. 🚀💰
However, it's not just a question of "bullish" or "bearish" trends. The situation is nuanced, with both positive and negative implications. Here's a breakdown of the two sides:

🔵 Bullish Case:
$SOL has been chosen as "America's chain." 🇺🇸
Strengthens Trump’s pro-crypto position, signaling a more favorable stance towards digital assets.
Massive approval on one of the largest stages, which could create a positive ripple effect for $BTC, RWA, DeFi, and altcoins that have recently struggled.
Could accelerate the influx of new capital into the crypto market (e.g., Moonshot climbing to the #1 spot in the app store is an early indicator).
Potential for greater attention next week, as this gains coverage in mainstream media.
📰Opens the door for increased crypto innovation, capital inflow, and new projects in the U.S., signaling a clear "green light" for growth. 🟢

🔴 Bearish Case:
Liquidity drain: The higher $TRUMP rises, the more liquidity is pulled away from altcoins. 📉
Regulatory perception: Cryptocurrencies might appear unfavorable in Congress, potentially making it harder for Trump to pass supportive legislation.
Meme token proliferation: This launch may inspire more celebrities to release their own tokens, increasing market dispersion while also drawing attention and new users.
Accelerated cycles: Volatility tends to spike ahead of significant market climaxes.
Risk of a market peak: The likelihood of hitting a near-term market top has risen compared to 1-2 weeks ago.
Bearish for $ETH: Ethereum could face specific challenges in this scenario.

⏳ What’s Next?
We’ll learn more in the next 1-2 days, either from Trump’s upcoming speech or from the first decisions he makes in the initial days of his presidency. Expect significant updates and potential market reactions soon! 🕒✨
Key takeaway: Stay cautious but alert, as this is a pivotal moment for the crypto industry! 💡

Every single time, fools are baited with a variety of "miracles" that convince them to believe their negative-EV bet will somehow work out this time. For example:
- 😄 This revolutionary technology will change the world!
- 😄 John turned $100,000 into a billion—here’s a real-life success story!
- 😄 It’s a mutual aid fund, where "everyone gets paid!"
- 😄 The deal is endorsed by the FSB and the FBI!
- 😄 Even Elon Musk is on board**—check out his tweet!
- 😄 Becoming a **crypto expert is so easy—anyone can do it!
- 😄 It’s the President’s coin!! Trump himself approved it!
- 😄 You’re smarter, faster, and more deserving than others! (That’s just your hormones talking—they’re usually helpful, but not when probabilities are involved).
And the list goes on.
These "miracles" exist to prevent fools from calculating their odds or advantages. Instead, they’re designed to prey on greed, envy, and ignorance. The goal is simple: to make fools believe in a fairy tale instead of mathematics.
Fools’ money is up for grabs—this is just human nature. Dreamers will keep dreaming because rational decisions are hard to make and often feel depressing.
Governments regulate the "fleecing of fools" in some areas, while in others, they actively participate in stripping fools of their excess funds. This is true for every country—governments are made up of people too.
In some ways, this is even a blessing. Evolution rewards those with basic 10th-grade math skills, giving them the opportunity to accumulate wealth and ensure that humanity continues to evolve. 💡

The day before yesterday, a group of people launched a memecoin called TRUMP OFFICIAL, and the internet went wild.
Donald Trump himself shared links to it on his social media, causing a frenzy. In just two days, its market capitalization skyrocketed to a staggering $13 billion, and it even got listed on Binance.
🚀 Huge profits were made by those who bought the coin early—yesterday—while today’s buyers are footing the bill.
Our world is filled to the brim with dreamers and gullible people who don’t know the ultimate formula for life and financial success: the formula of expected value (EV).
When we consider investing in the stock market, we try to determine if we have a positive EV—whether the odds are in our favor—and assess what advantages we might have over others. Rational decision-making is key, and over time, the market rewards those who approach it logically.
For irrational fools, however, the financial world seems like a magical place—full of dazzling opportunities, easy riches, and "surefire" bets.
The moment fools acquire some money, they’re bombarded with offers to play "the game": "Bet 1 cent to win 100," or even, "Turn $1 into $100,000!"
It’s not hard to figure out that the EV of "bet 1 cent to win 100" would actually be positive if your chance of winning were higher than 1%. But in the real world, everyone doesn’t have equal odds. Casino organizers ensure that only they maintain positive EV, while the countless operating costs mean that the fool’s EV is always negative.

🌐 Cryptocurrency Market Update — January 17, 2025
📊 Current Market Prices
- Bitcoin (BTC): $101,372.00
- Ethereum (ETH): $3,364.30
- XRP (XRP): $3.32
- Illuvium (ILV): $39.00
---
🤖 Innovations in AI Agents
1. Virtuals Protocol:
The Virtuals platform, built on the Base blockchain, offers cutting-edge tools for creating and co-owning AI agents. Its advanced infrastructure is powered by the $VIRTUAL token, which drives the protocol's economy. A key feature of Virtuals is its Initial Agent Offerings (IAOs), enabling seamless entry for users into the AI-powered ecosystem.
2. ai16z Project:
Using the Solana blockchain, ai16z developed the Eliza framework, a modular and open-source platform for designing AI agents. This innovation supports the growth of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), which are autonomously managed by AI, making them more efficient and scalable.
3. VVAIFU Platform:
The VVAIFU platform, also running on Solana, democratizes AI creation by enabling users to design and manage AI agents without needing coding skills. This approach helps to broaden the adoption of AI technologies and makes them more accessible to the public.
🎮 Web3 Gaming Highlights
1. Hamster Kombat:
This viral hit on the Telegram platform has surpassed 300 million players since its launch in March 2024. Hamster Kombat takes advantage of Telegram's Web3 capabilities, featuring viral-sharing mechanics reminiscent of TikTok. The game not only entertains but also educates players on cryptocurrency concepts, with the potential to onboard millions into the TON ecosystem.
2. Captain Laserhawk: The G.A.M.E.:
Ubisoft's newest release, Captain Laserhawk: The G.A.M.E., is a multiplayer top-down shooter available on PC. Featuring iconic characters like Rayman, the game integrates blockchain technology with Web3 functionality, requiring players to own a Niji Warrior NFT to participate. These NFTs can be purchased or obtained through promotions, introducing new ways for players to engage with the game.

#AIAgentFrenzy AI Agents and Knowledge Extraction: The Future of Autonomous Solutions
The concept of AI agents is an exciting glimpse into the future, but right now, it feels more like a pipe dream. Why? Because there’s yet to be a single economically viable AI agent that autonomously solves tasks even at the level of a junior employee in any domain — except maybe in entertainment or crypto-token operations. And let’s face it, those aren’t exactly solid business models. 🧐
It’s crucial to differentiate between AI Automation, AI Assistants, and AI Agents — these terms are often confused, but they’re not the same.
When I talk about an economically viable AI agent for business, I mean one that can autonomously handle tasks at a human level for an entire month and cost less than that person’s salary. If you know of such agents, please share in the comments! For instance, the much-hyped Devin doesn’t even come close to solving half of a junior developer’s workload.
Why Isn’t This Reality Yet? 🤔
The situation may improve soon as:
- Tokens become cheaper.
- Models grow smarter and more specialized.
- Fine-tuned language models emerge for specific domains.
However, there’s a major roadblock: digitizing expertise. For an AI agent to replace a human, it must understand and replicate their skills, but businesses rarely document their processes thoroughly. To create a successful AI agent, this expertise must not only be documented but also structured into formats like:
- Knowledge graphs
- Algorithms
- State machines
A Promising Direction 🌟
Fields like Process Mining and Knowledge Extraction are crucial for advancing AI agent development. Even manually formalizing a specialist’s work — gathering knowledge, structuring decision-making principles, and creating frameworks for knowledge extraction — would be 80% of the work done.
If we go further and combine:
- Domain-Driven Design (DDD)
- Digitized expertise (e.g., JSON or Neo4J database)

Will ETH Pump in 2025? 🚀
Hey, friends! 👋
Let’s dive into some exciting trends surrounding Ethereum (ETH). Several key indicators suggest we might be witnessing the beginning of a major capital flow into Ethereum and its ecosystem. Here’s a breakdown:
1. ETH/BTC Chart 📈
- On the weekly timeframe, the ETH/BTC chart shows early signs of a bottom formation and a potential structural shift.
2. Increased ETH Purchases Over 2 Weeks 🛒
- During the latest dips, Ethereum was bought far more actively than Bitcoin, signaling strong demand.
3. The $3,330 Level as a Magnet 🧲
- This key level has acted like a price magnet. ETH has dipped to this point multiple times, but each time, the price rebounded with higher volumes, hinting at position accumulation by major players.
4. ETF Inflows to Ethereum 💼
- Data from U.S. spot crypto ETFs shows a shift in funds from BTC to ETH. Last week, Ethereum ETFs saw inflows, while BTC ETFs experienced outflows.
5. Seasonal Trends 🌱
- Historically, Ethereum’s first quarter is bullish, with the coin often rallying for three consecutive months.
The Outlook: Bullish and Bright
The facts are stacking up! 🚀
Beyond these technical points, there are other fundamental factors supporting a positive forecast for Ethereum. It seems likely that we’re nearing the end of the current correction, with a new growth wave ahead that could last 1-2 months. 🔥
If you’re dreaming of ETH hitting $10,000, smash that ❤️ and let’s ride this wave!

🚀 Top Crypto Predictions for 2025: What’s Ahead?
The cryptocurrency market is steadily recovering from the turbulence of 2022-2023, and 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. Let’s dive into the key trends you should keep on your radar:
🌟 NFT Market Resurgence
The NFT market, which saw an 84% decline in trading volumes since 2022, is gearing up for a comeback. Iconic collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) maintain their dominance thanks to their cultural significance. Expect new investors, driven by growing wealth, to purchase NFTs not just for speculation but as long-term cultural assets.
🇺🇸 The US Turns Crypto-Friendly
With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, crypto is likely to gain high-level political support. Key figures like Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins are vocal proponents of cryptocurrency. In 2025, we anticipate the approval of new Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) and even the potential recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
🔗 DeFi Reaches New Heights
Decentralized finance (DeFi) is set to flourish with projected trading volumes on DEX platforms surpassing $4 trillion, and the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi expected to hit $200 billion. Growth will be driven by:
- Expansion of tokenized assets,
- Improved user-friendly DeFi interfaces,
- Integration of AI for smarter, more efficient operations.
💹 Tokenized Securities Boom
The market for tokenized securities is on track to exceed $50 billion in value by 2025. This innovation enhances transparency and simplifies financial asset management. Demand for tokenized stocks and debt instruments is rising, especially on public blockchains.
🤖 AI Agents Revolutionize Crypto
AI agents are rapidly becoming indispensable for maximizing DeFi profitability. Their adoption is expected to double by 2025, particularly in areas like social media, gaming, and financial services.