The Bitcoin "Danger Zone"

The Bitcoin Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (orange) is where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun

Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving

This cycle was no different and here's why:

Because Bitcoin experienced its first -18% Pre-Halving Retrace approximately 30 days before the Halving

History repeated in that respect

In fact, in 2016 Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace 28 days before the Halving and in 2024 it was 30 days before the Halving

This 2024 closely mirrored the 2016 in this respect

Which is why it is perhaps worth looking at a possible Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple)

The Post-Halving "Danger Zone"

In 2016, Bitcoin produced a long -11% downside wick approximately 21 days after the Halving before reversing towards the upside

Bitcoin is currently 6 days after the Halving

But 2016 history suggests that if downside volatility around the Re-Accumulation Range Low (green horizontal level) is going to occur in this cycle...

It could occur over the next coming 15 days (i.e. purple "Danger Zone")

The purple Post-Halving "Danger Zone" ends in 15 days but 2016 history suggests that in the meantime downside volatility at the $60600 Range Low is a possibility